Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Estadio Do MorumBIS

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Vasco DA Gama · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama, Serie A – Brazil on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 01:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.1% of 4297 landed (95% range 75.9–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sao Paulo host Vasco DA Gama in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 01:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Sao Paulo or Vasco DA Gama (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Vasco DA Gama are unbeaten in their last seven matches.

Form and the table

Five of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in nine of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Sao Paulo have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches — 2.13 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 0.88. Sao Paulo have scored 35 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Sao Paulo have conceded 35 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Vasco DA Gama’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in five of Vasco DA Gama’s last 15 results (33%). Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have five wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 8 away matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.00. Vasco DA Gama have scored 36 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Vasco DA Gama have conceded 42 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs.

Sao Paulo (10th) and Vasco DA Gama (14th) are four points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Vasco DA Gama the stronger side, 61 rating points above Sao Paulo (Vasco DA Gama 1615, Sao Paulo 1555, after at least 295 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Sao Paulo.

Team news

Predicted Sao Paulo XI (3-4-2-1): Rafael, R. Arboleda, Sabino, R. Toloi, M. Antônio, I. Borduchi, P. Maia, Danielzinho, D. Ferreira, P. Lima, Artur — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Domingos Duarte (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) and Artur (3.9 per match over 30 appearances, four goals and five assists) have been Sao Paulo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Sao Paulo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Domingos Duarte averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 676 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances. Artur averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 2656 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Vasco DA Gama XI (4-1-4-1): L. Jardim, R. Renan, P. Henrique, C. Cuesta, Cuiabano, T. Mendes, S. Sosa, A. Gómez, T. Tchê, A. Lescano, F. Colidio — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cuiabano (5.2 per match over 28 appearances, two goals and four assists) and F. Colidio (4.6 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and three assists) have been Vasco DA Gama’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Vasco DA Gama (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuiabano averages 3.7 tackles per 90 over 2097 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. F. Colidio averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 2178 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Estadio Do MorumBIS
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sao Paulo 2 · draws 1 · Vasco DA Gama 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L · Vasco DA Gama 4W 1D 0L

TACTIX runs Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama (Serie A – Brazil) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.88 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.13 / 0.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
7.38 / 6.5
Corners
against 3.75 / 5.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 5.38
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 2.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.25 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSao Paulo for / againstLineVasco DA Gama for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5our book
1.5 for · 0.38 against n 8
Corners won
7.38 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
6.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
Shots
15 for · 12.25 against n 8
19.5standard
16.5 for · 10.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
5.38 for · 2.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.5 for · 12.88 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 9.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Djhordney Ferreira n 839.4
3.78/4
2.35/1
—
Pedro Lima n 846.3
2.46/3
13/1
—
Wendell n 867.3
2.37/3
0.73/1
—
Iago Borduchi n 871.8
2.26/3
1.14/2
—
Pablo Maia n 857.8
2.14/3
0.42/0
—
Sao Paulo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Santana n 847.1
3.86/5
1.74/3
Luciano n 879.1
2.78/6
16/1
Artur n 876.8
2.66/6
13/3
Ryan Francisco n 833.6
25/1
0.72/0
Jonathan Calleri n 872
1.75/3
0.84/1
Sao Paulo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Luciano n 879.1
0.64/0
00/0
Jonathan Calleri n 872
0.63/1
00/0
Iago Borduchi n 871.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
Artur n 876.8
00/0
0.32/0
Ryan Francisco n 833.6
0.31/0
00/0
Sao Paulo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Djhordney Ferreira n 839.4
3.15/3
Iago Borduchi n 871.8
2.56/5
Danielzinho n 840.5
2.54/2
Wendell n 867.3
2.35/5
Pedro Lima n 846.3
2.25/2
Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Carlos Coronel n 890.6
3.87/5
Rafael n 880.8
1.43/1
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
David n 828.4
3.24/4
24/1
—
Santiago Sosa n 867.1
2.76/4
0.21/0
—
Jair n 848
1.95/3
2.67/4
—
Claudio Spinelli n 841.8
1.95/2
1.64/1
—
Ramon Rique n 836.8
1.84/1
0.62/0
—
Vasco DA Gama — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
David n 828.4
44/3
24/1
F. Colidio n 871.3
3.58/6
1.95/4
Claudio Spinelli n 841.8
3.27/5
1.95/2
Adson n 849.4
35/4
1.14/1
Marino Hinestroza n 834.8
1.94/1
00/0
Vasco DA Gama — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
David n 828.4
1.23/0
00/0
F. Colidio n 871.3
0.32/0
0.53/0
Bruno Duarte n 863.3
0.42/0
0.42/0
Ramon Rique n 836.8
0.31/0
0.31/0
A. Lescano n 871.1
0.53/0
00/0
Vasco DA Gama — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Cuiabano n 874.4
3.58/4
Ramon Rique n 836.8
2.84/3
Alan Saldivia n 885.3
2.66/5
Andrés Gómez n 864.6
2.35/5
Adson n 849.4
2.36/2
Vasco DA Gama — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Léo Jardim n 890.9
2.46/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sao PauloDWLLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Vasco DA GamaWWWDW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sao Paulo 2 · 1 draw · Vasco DA Gama 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-04-18 Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Sao Paulo
  • 2025-11-02 Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Sao Paulo
  • 2025-06-13 Sao Paulo 1–3 Vasco DA Gama
  • 2024-10-17 Sao Paulo 3–0 Vasco DA Gama
  • 2024-06-23 Vasco DA Gama 4–1 Sao Paulo
  • 2023-10-07 Vasco DA Gama 0–0 Sao Paulo
League standing · 2026
Sao Paulo#10 pos39 pts30 pl0 GD
Vasco DA Gama#14 pos35 pts29 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Sao Paulo scored1.17
Vasco DA Gama scored1.24
Sao Paulo conceded1.17
Vasco DA Gama conceded1.45

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama is Home or Away (best price 1.33 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama?
In their last 6 meetings, Sao Paulo won 2, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama?
Recent form — Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L; Vasco DA Gama 4W 1D 0L.

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