FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven prediction
Team pages: FC Porto · PSV Eindhoven
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 20 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
FC Porto host PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
12 of PSV Eindhoven’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 13 of PSV Eindhoven’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%).
Form and the table
Eight of FC Porto’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of FC Porto’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, FC Porto have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 0.50.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 1.50.
FC Porto (30th) and PSV Eindhoven (26th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Porto the stronger side, 9 rating points above PSV Eindhoven (FC Porto 1611, PSV Eindhoven 1601, after at least 54 rated matches each).
Team news
FC Porto have four names on the availability list: D. Prpic (out, Off the roster), Gabriel Mec (out, Off the roster), V. Sousa (out, Leg Injury) and William Gomes (out, Ankle Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-18. By TACTIX Impact, Gabri Veiga (5.4 per match over 10 appearances, five goals and three assists) and William (4.1 per match over nine appearances, two goals and two assists) have been FC Porto’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Porto (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Gabri Veiga averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 683 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. William averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 589 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last nine appearances.
PSV Eindhoven have nine names on the availability list: A. Nagalo (out, Injury), A. Plea (out, Surgery), J. Schouten (out, Knee Injury), K. Sildillia (out, Surgery), P. Wanner (out, Foot Injury), R. Pepi (out, Injury) and three more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-18. By TACTIX Impact, Sergiño Dest (5.0 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Mauro Júnior (4.8 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been PSV Eindhoven’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for PSV Eindhoven (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Sergiño Dest averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 1422 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Mauro Júnior averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 969 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League · Estádio Do Dragão
- Referee: Daniel Siebert
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: FC Porto 3W 0D 2L · PSV Eindhoven 2W 0D 3L
FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | FC Porto for / against | Line | PSV Eindhoven for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 2.38 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.5 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.13 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15.38 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.75 for · 13.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.88 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5.75 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 14.13 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.63 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.5 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.13 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Daniel Siebert.
FC Porto
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Gül n 8 | 31 | 4.4 | 0.7 | — |
| Alberto Baio n 8 | 80.3 | 2.5 | 2 | — |
| Hwang In-Beom n 8 | 46 | 2 | 1.2 | — |
| P. Rosario n 8 | 84.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt n 8 | 68.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Giménez n 8 | 28.8 | 3.5 | 2 |
| D. Gül n 8 | 31 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Gabri Veiga n 8 | 67.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Borja Sainz n 8 | 28 | 2.4 | 2 |
| André Silva n 8 | 72.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabri Veiga n 8 | 67.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| O. Pietuszewski n 8 | 23 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Borja Sainz n 8 | 28 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Pepê Aquino n 8 | 83.6 | 0 | 0.7 |
| André Silva n 8 | 72.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| William n 8 | 66.4 | 2.7 |
| Hwang In-Beom n 8 | 46 | 2.4 |
| Francisco Moura n 8 | 67.9 | 2.3 |
| S. Giménez n 8 | 28.8 | 2.3 |
| Martim Fernandes n 8 | 53.5 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
PSV Eindhoven
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Man n 8 | 52.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | — |
| A. Obispo n 8 | 85.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | — |
| Ruben van Bommel n 8 | 54.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | — |
| S. Mijnans n 8 | 54 | 1.9 | 1.3 | — |
| A. Bouhamdi n 6 | 33 | 1.4 | 0.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Bro Hansen n 8 | 15.1 | 4.5 | 3 |
| S. Mijnans n 8 | 54 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| R. Pepi n 8 | 64.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| A. Bouhamdi n 6 | 33 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| D. Man n 8 | 52.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mijnans n 8 | 54 | 1 | 0.2 |
| G. Til n 8 | 56.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| E. Bajraktarevic n 8 | 54.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| A. Bouhamdi n 6 | 33 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Mikkel Bro Hansen n 8 | 15.1 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Bouhamdi n 6 | 33 | 3.6 |
| P. Wanner n 8 | 56.5 | 3 |
| Mauro Júnior n 8 | 68.9 | 2.9 |
| N. Fernandez n 8 | 62 | 2.9 |
| Filip Kostić n 8 | 57.3 | 2.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Kovář n 8 | 90 | 3.8 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the recent form of FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven?
- Recent form — FC Porto 3W 0D 2L; PSV Eindhoven 2W 0D 3L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.