Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC prediction

The match

Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Shakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens FC (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last five matches.

AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 15 matches — every result checked. AEK Athens FC have scored in eight consecutive matches.

Form and the table

Shakhtar Donetsk have scored in five consecutive matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches. Nine of Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Shakhtar Donetsk have four wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 6 home matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 0.83.

Eight of AEK Athens FC’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of AEK Athens FC’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, AEK Athens FC have one win, five draws and no defeats in their last 6 away matches — 1.33 points per game, scoring 0.83 and conceding 0.67.

Shakhtar Donetsk (23rd) and AEK Athens FC (17th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AEK Athens FC the stronger side, 16 rating points above Shakhtar Donetsk (AEK Athens FC 1657, Shakhtar Donetsk 1640, after at least 19 rated matches each).

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Dmytro Riznyk (3.4 per match over three appearances) and Pedro Henrique (1.9 per match over three appearances, one goal) have been Shakhtar Donetsk’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Shakhtar Donetsk (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Dmytro Riznyk averages 1.3 saves per 90 over 360 minutes.

By TACTIX Impact, Răzvan Marin (5.8 per match over nine appearances, three goals and four assists) and Barnabás Varga (5.5 per match over seven appearances, six goals) have been AEK Athens FC’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AEK Athens FC (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Răzvan Marin averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 1006 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Barnabás Varga averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 632 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last nine appearances.