HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · · Stadion Poljud

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: HNK Hajduk Split · Ajax

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.14 at Betvictor
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4280 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

HNK Hajduk Split host Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is HNK Hajduk Split or Ajax (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Ajax have scored in 14 consecutive matches. Ajax are unbeaten in their last four matches. 12 of Ajax’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Form and the table

11 of HNK Hajduk Split’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in seven of HNK Hajduk Split’s last 15 results (47%). At home, HNK Hajduk Split have six wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 8 home matches — 2.50 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 0.63.

Both teams scored in 12 of Ajax’s last 15 results (80%). Away from home, Ajax have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 away matches — 2.67 points per game, scoring 3.50 and conceding 1.00.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Ajax the stronger side, 41 rating points above HNK Hajduk Split (Ajax 1812, HNK Hajduk Split 1771, after at least 10 rated matches each).

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Rokas Pukštas (7.9 per match over four appearances, three goals and one assist) and Khalil Fayad (3.9 per match over four appearances, one goal) have been HNK Hajduk Split’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for HNK Hajduk Split (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Rokas Pukštas averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 412 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last six appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, Mika Godts (8.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and three assists) and Oscar Gloukh (5.2 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and four assists) have been Ajax’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ajax (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mika Godts averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 842 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. Oscar Gloukh averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 1171 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Europa Conference League · Stadion Poljud
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: HNK Hajduk Split 4W 0D 1L · Ajax 2W 2D 1L

HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.25 / 3.38
Goals
against 1 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.25 / 6.88
Corners
against 2.88 / 2.75 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 9.25
Shots on target
against 3.38 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 1.88
Cards
against 2.5 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameHNK Hajduk Split for / againstLineAjax for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 1 against n 8
3our book
3.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
4.25 for · 2.88 against n 8
9.5standard
6.88 for · 2.75 against n 8
Shots
12.88 for · 9.13 against n 8
19.5standard
23.88 for · 9.63 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.38 against n 8
8.5standard
9.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.5 for · 13.75 against n 8
21.5standard
8.25 for · 8.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Pukštas n 863.1
3.47/7
1.85/3
—
K. Fayad n 854.4
2.75/5
3.57/6
—
M. Livaja n 832.8
2.74/3
1.43/1
—
Dali n 872.3
2.67/4
2.36/5
—
Carlos Martín n 825.8
2.22/1
0.92/0
—
HNK Hajduk Split — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Livaja n 832.8
4.17/3
2.15/1
Dali n 872.3
2.65/4
1.64/2
Carlos Martín n 825.8
2.65/1
0.92/0
R. Pukštas n 863.1
2.56/3
1.45/2
A. Sutalo n 651.3
2.35/2
1.84/1
HNK Hajduk Split — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Livaja n 832.8
13/0
00/0
A. Guram n 832.6
0.31/0
0.72/0
Dali n 872.3
0.21/0
0.63/1
M. Šego n 876.5
0.74/1
0.11/0
R. Pukštas n 863.1
0.53/0
0.21/0
HNK Hajduk Split — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Brruti n 345.7
4.63/3
A. Guram n 832.6
3.15/2
K. Fayad n 854.4
2.96/4
M. Acapandié n 867.8
2.87/5
R. Pukštas n 863.1
2.75/4
HNK Hajduk Split — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Silić n 893.8
1.85/2
Ajax
Ajax — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Mokio n 873.6
27/4
0.84/1
—
O. Wijndal n 865
1.96/2
0.73/1
—
S. Amrabat n 851
1.85/2
0.73/0
—
A. Gaaei n 879.5
1.75/3
0.63/1
—
D. Janse n 864.1
1.24/2
0.53/0
—
Ajax — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Arokodare n 851.4
5.37/6
2.26/3
A. Ouazane n 831
4.47/4
2.25/1
Marcos Leonardo n 834.8
3.95/3
1.63/2
O. Gloukh n 867.3
3.26/4
1.54/2
K. Dolberg n 856.4
3.27/5
1.45/2
Ajax — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Arokodare n 851.4
1.56/1
0.21/0
K. Dolberg n 856.4
0.63/0
0.62/1
D. Klaassen n 855.6
15/0
00/0
O. Gloukh n 867.3
0.21/0
0.53/0
A. Ouazane n 831
00/0
0.71/1
Ajax — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Y. Regeer n 871.1
3.37/6
A. Gaaei n 879.5
2.78/6
Lucas Rosa n 878.5
2.36/5
S. Amrabat n 851
2.27/2
J. Mokio n 873.6
26/4
Ajax — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. ter Stegen n 890
35/4
M. Paes n 894.6
2.46/5

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
HNK Hajduk SplitWWWLW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
AjaxLWWDD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
HNK Hajduk Split#14 pos0 pts0 pl0 GD
Ajax#9 pos0 pts0 pl0 GD

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
TACTIX’s free model pick for HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax is Home or Away (best price 1.14 at Betvictor).
What is the recent form of HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax?
Recent form — HNK Hajduk Split 4W 0D 1L; Ajax 2W 2D 1L.

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