Pafos v Riga prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Pafos v Riga, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.
The match
Pafos host Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Pafos or Riga (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Riga are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Six of Pafos’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Pafos’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Pafos have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 1.86.
Eight of Riga’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Riga’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Riga have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.86.
Pafos (32nd) and Riga (22nd) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Pafos the stronger side, 27 rating points above Riga (Pafos 1683, Riga 1657, after at least 19 rated matches each).
Team news
Predicted Pafos XI (4-3-3): R. Majecki, N. Ioannou, B. Felipe, D. Luiz, S. Mmaee, Pepe, V. Dragomir, I. Sunjic, Lele, Biel, K. Sema — derived from the last 3 line-ups, most-used eleven.
Predicted Riga XI (4-3-3): F. Orols, R. Jurkovskis, B. Musah, Paulo, A. Salazar, A. Ankrah, I. Augusto, R. Aouani, R. Ramires, M. Badamosi, M. Diop — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Iago Siqueira Augusto (4.8 per match over three appearances) and Ahmed Ankrah (4.6 per match over four appearances, one goal) have been Riga’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Riga (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ahmed Ankrah averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 349 minutes.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa Conference League · Alphamega Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Pafos 1W 2D 2L · Riga 2W 3D 0L
Pafos v Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Pafos for / against | Line | Riga for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 2 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.29 for · 4.86 against n 7 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.17 for · 3 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Shots | 8.57 for · 6.86 against n 7 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.33 for · 5.67 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.14 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.33 for · 2.67 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.33 for · 13 against n 6 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.4 for · 12.2 against n 5 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.71 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.33 for · 2.5 against n 6 Last 5 |
Pafos
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lele n 8 | 33.8 | 3 | 1.3 | — |
| Bruno Felipe n 8 | 88 | 2.6 | 0.9 | — |
| I. Sunjic n 8 | 53.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | — |
| Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito n 5 | 53.6 | 2 | 1.3 | — |
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 51.6 | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lele n 8 | 33.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| M. Orsic n 8 | 43.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| M. Bassouamina n 8 | 14.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 51.6 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Biel n 8 | 45.6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Silva n 8 | 51.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| K. Pileas n 8 | 48.6 | 0 | 0.5 |
| M. Orsic n 8 | 43.3 | 0 | 0.5 |
| N. Moumi Ngamaleu n 8 | 68 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| D. Luckassen n 8 | 83 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito n 5 | 53.6 | 4 |
| Bruno Felipe n 8 | 88 | 3.3 |
| N. Ioannou n 8 | 72.1 | 2.5 |
| Domingos Quina n 8 | 53.6 | 2.5 |
| Jaja n 8 | 45.4 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Gorter n 8 | 84.3 | 2.8 |
| R. Majecki n 8 | 93.8 | 2.5 |
Riga
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Oulad M'Hand n 3 | 39.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | — |
| R. Aouani n 8 | 71.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | — |
| M. Badamosi n 8 | 33.4 | 2 | 2.4 | — |
| A. Černomordijs n 8 | 76.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | — |
| A. Taiwo n 5 | 34.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reginaldo Ramires n 4 | 44.3 | 4.1 | 2 |
| S. Oulad M'Hand n 3 | 39.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| M. Badamosi n 8 | 33.4 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Iago Siqueira Augusto n 8 | 83.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| R. Aouani n 8 | 71.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Oulad M'Hand n 3 | 39.3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| A. Ankrah n 4 | 87.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| A. Salazar n 4 | 86 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Iago Siqueira Augusto n 8 | 83.5 | 0 | 0.3 |
| M. Toņiševs n 7 | 49.1 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Taiwo n 5 | 34.8 | 2.6 |
| S. Oulad M'Hand n 3 | 39.3 | 2.3 |
| A. Ankrah n 4 | 87.3 | 2.1 |
| M. Toņiševs n 7 | 49.1 | 2.1 |
| M. Diop n 4 | 68 | 1.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| K. Zviedris n 7 | 88.4 | 2.6 |
| K. Piric n 8 | 90 | 2.1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Pafos v Riga — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Pafos v Riga?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Pafos v Riga is Home or Away (best price 1.25 at Bet365).
- What is the recent form of Pafos and Riga?
- Recent form — Pafos 1W 2D 2L; Riga 2W 3D 0L.
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