Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar prediction
Team pages: Ararat-Armenia · AZ Alkmaar
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.
The match
Ararat-Armenia host AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
Form and the table
Nine of Ararat-Armenia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Ararat-Armenia’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Ararat-Armenia have five wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.00.
Eight of AZ Alkmaar’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of AZ Alkmaar’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.13.
Ararat-Armenia (34th) and AZ Alkmaar (20th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AZ Alkmaar the stronger side, 281 rating points above Ararat-Armenia (AZ Alkmaar 1702, Ararat-Armenia 1420, after at least 13 rated matches each).
Team news
Ararat-Armenia have two names on the availability list: P. Ayongo (out, Off the roster) and Z. Banjaqui (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted Ararat-Armenia XI (4-3-3): J. Victor, B. Wilson, J. Julio, M. Carlier, A. Malis, H. Oliveira, K. Muradyan, J. A. Balanta, S. Lima, A. Serobyan, Z. Shaghoyan — derived from the last 4 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Artur Serobyan (4.2 per match over three appearances) and João Victor (3.8 per match over three appearances) have been Ararat-Armenia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ararat-Armenia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Artur Serobyan averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 451 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last six appearances.
AZ Alkmaar have four names on the availability list: H. Verhulst (out, Off the roster), J. Hornkamp (out, Injury), K. Smit (out, Injury) and S. Resink (out, Knee Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted AZ Alkmaar XI (4-4-2): J. De Busser, W. Goes, M. Chávez, W. Hoedt, E. Dijkstra, P. Koopmeiners, R. Daal, V. Byskov, A. Oufkir, M. Meerdink, B. Kovacs — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Ro-Zangelo Daal (5.8 per match over 11 appearances, five goals) and Peer Koopmeiners (4.8 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been AZ Alkmaar’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AZ Alkmaar (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ro-Zangelo Daal averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 916 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Peer Koopmeiners averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 985 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa League · Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht
- Model coverage: 242 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Ararat-Armenia 1W 1D 3L · AZ Alkmaar 2W 1D 2L
Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Ararat-Armenia for / against | Line | AZ Alkmaar for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.2 for · 8.4 against n 5 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 6.6 for · 11.6 against n 5 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 15 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 2.6 for · 7 against n 5 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5.5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.2 for · 17 against n 5 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.5 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.2 for · 3.4 against n 5 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Ararat-Armenia
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Eloyan n 5 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | — |
| Zidane Banjaqui n 8 | 40.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | — |
| Karen Muradyan n 8 | 50.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | — |
| Junior Julio n 4 | 78.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | — |
| Benny n 7 | 84.4 | 1.5 | 2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Eloyan n 5 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Franca Carlos n 5 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Zidane Banjaqui n 8 | 40.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| A. Serobyan n 8 | 63.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| A. Tera n 3 | 47.7 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zidane Banjaqui n 8 | 40.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Benny n 7 | 84.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| M. Carlier n 8 | 59.8 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Z. Shaghoyan n 8 | 49.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Hugo Oliveira n 8 | 38.8 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Tera n 3 | 47.7 | 2.5 |
| E. Grigoryan n 7 | 62.1 | 2.1 |
| A. Malis n 8 | 85.3 | 2 |
| Luís Felipe n 3 | 30 | 2 |
| Franca Carlos n 5 | 18.4 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| João Victor n 4 | 87.3 | 1.5 |
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Oufkir n 8 | 38.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | — |
| Weslley Patati n 8 | 33.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | — |
| M. Chávez n 8 | 60.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | — |
| S. Maikuma n 8 | 22.5 | 2 | 2 | — |
| K. Smit n 8 | 64.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| V. Byskov n 8 | 36 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| B. Kovacs n 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| J. Hornkamp n 8 | 30.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Mexx Meerdink n 8 | 64.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Weslley Patati n 8 | 33.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexx Meerdink n 8 | 64.4 | 0.9 | 0 |
| V. Byskov n 8 | 36 | 0 | 0.9 |
| J. Hornkamp n 8 | 30.9 | 0.7 | 0 |
| D. Kasius n 8 | 40.1 | 0 | 0.6 |
| R. Daal n 8 | 83 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Maikuma n 8 | 22.5 | 5.5 |
| M. Chávez n 8 | 60.6 | 3.5 |
| M. de Wit n 8 | 57 | 2.4 |
| P. Koopmeiners n 8 | 90 | 2.3 |
| L. Schouten n 8 | 89.1 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Jari De Busser n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.57 at Betano).
- What is the recent form of Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar?
- Recent form — Ararat-Armenia 1W 1D 3L; AZ Alkmaar 2W 1D 2L.
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