Eliteserien xG Table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-31 · 71 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 31 October 2026, Start have 6.6 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Eliteserien on expected points. Viking are the luckiest (6.5 more). Viking lead the Eliteserien on 24 points; Tromso top the expected-points column on 18.1 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Viking	9	24	17.5	+6.5
2	Tromso	11	23	18.1	+4.9
3	Lillestrom	9	19	12.5	+6.5
4	Bodo/Glimt	8	16	15.8	+0.2
5	Molde	9	16	12.2	+3.8
6	Brann	9	13	13.7	-0.7
7	Sandefjord	9	13	12.6	+0.4
8	Ham-Kam	8	13	9.4	+3.6
9	Valerenga	9	11	12.4	-1.4
10	Fredrikstad	9	10	9.2	+0.8
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	9	8	12.4	-4.4
12	Rosenborg	9	8	11.5	-3.5
13	KFUM Oslo	9	8	10.9	-2.9
14	Kristiansund BK	8	8	9.4	-1.4
15	Aalesund	8	6	9.7	-3.7
16	Start	9	4	10.6	-6.6

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to Read This Table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Eliteserien predictions Eliteserien top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions This Page Answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Eliteserien match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).