Ligue 1 xG Table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-11-11 · 76 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 11 November 2026, Le Havre have 7.8 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Ligue 1 on expected points. Lille are the luckiest (4.7 more). Paris Saint Germain lead the Ligue 1 on 20 points; they also top the expected-points column on 17.3 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Paris Saint Germain	9	20	17.3	+2.7
2	Lille	9	18	13.3	+4.7
3	Rennes	9	16	14.0	+2.0
4	Monaco	8	15	10.9	+4.1
5	Paris FC	8	14	15.0	-1.0
6	Lyon	8	14	12.4	+1.6
7	Nice	9	14	10.0	+4.0
8	Lens	9	13	13.5	-0.5
9	Lorient	8	12	11.6	+0.4
10	Marseille	8	12	10.0	+2.0
11	Toulouse	8	10	14.0	-4.0
12	Auxerre	8	10	9.6	+0.4
13	Stade Brestois 29	8	9	14.8	-5.8
14	Estac Troyes	9	8	10.4	-2.4
15	Angers	8	8	9.0	-1.0
16	Le Mans	9	7	8.5	-1.5
17	Strasbourg	8	7	6.9	+0.1
18	Le Havre	9	2	9.8	-7.8

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to Read This Table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Ligue 1 predictions Ligue 1 top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions This Page Answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Ligue 1 match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).