Premier League top assists 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-31 · 80 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 31 October 2026, Nottingham Forest have 8.5 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in the Premier League on expected points. Arsenal are the luckiest (5.6 more). Manchester City lead the Premier League on 21 points; they also top the expected-points column on 16.2 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Manchester City	8	21	16.2	+4.8
2	Arsenal	8	21	15.4	+5.6
3	Brighton	8	16	14.8	+1.2
4	Liverpool	8	15	11.8	+3.2
5	Chelsea	8	13	10.3	+2.7
6	Brentford	8	11	11.5	-0.5
7	Leeds	8	11	10.9	+0.1
8	Aston Villa	8	11	8.6	+2.4
9	Newcastle	8	11	8.1	+2.9
10	Everton	8	10	10.9	-0.9
11	Hull City	8	10	8.2	+1.8
12	Ipswich	8	10	7.6	+2.4
13	Bournemouth	8	9	14.6	-5.6
14	Tottenham	8	9	10.7	-1.7
15	Fulham	8	8	11.3	-3.3
16	Manchester United	8	7	10.4	-3.4
17	Crystal Palace	8	7	8.6	-1.6
18	Nottingham Forest	8	6	14.5	-8.5
19	Coventry	8	6	8.5	-2.5
20	Sunderland	8	5	9.8	-4.8

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to Read This Table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

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Questions This Page Answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Premier League match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).