FPL Gameweek 5 Planner: Fixture Difficulty, Chip Timing and Projected Points

Everything below comes from the TACTIX fixture-difficulty model, which rates every Premier League club’s next 6 gameweeks using our own venue-adjusted team ratings — the same engine behind our published, settled track record — rather than the generic FDR. Difficulty runs 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest).

Fixture Runs Over the Next 6 Gameweeks

Sorted by average difficulty across the whole horizon, so a soft opener followed by a brutal run does not flatter a side.

Kindest runs

• Newcastle — 1.83/5
• Fulham — 2.17/5
• Coventry City — 2.33/5
• Hull City — 2.67/5
• Man City — 2.67/5

Toughest runs

• Liverpool — 4/5
• Sunderland — 3.67/5
• Arsenal — 3.5/5
• Ipswich Town — 3.33/5
• Brighton — 3.33/5

Gameweek Shape

Every club plays exactly once in each of GW5–GW10. There are no blanks and no doubles in this horizon, which is normal early in a season — they arrive once cup rearrangements start. That matters for chips, and it is why most of them are a hold below.

Chip Guidance

Each chip is judged against a rule fixed in advance, printed with the verdict. Where no gameweek clears the bar we say hold rather than naming one — a chip recommendation you can always produce is not a recommendation.

• Wildcard — target GW8. Fixtures turn from GW8: Crystal Palace (4.33→2), Sunderland (4.67→2.67), Arsenal (4.33→2.67) all improve materially, which is what a Wildcard is for.
• Bench Boost — hold. No gameweek in this horizon has 4+ teams playing twice, so there is no Bench Boost week to name yet. Hold it.
• Triple Captain — hold. No team in this horizon has a double gameweek soft enough to triple-captain (the bar is an average difficulty of 2.6 or better). Hold it.
• Free Hit — hold. No gameweek in this horizon blanks 5+ teams, so a Free Hit would be spent on a week you can field a normal XI in. Hold it.

Fixture Swings

Average difficulty in the first half of the horizon versus the second. A large positive swing is a run that is about to get easier.

Projected Points for Gameweek 5

Top three by projected points in each position, from the model’s view of this gameweek only.

Goalkeepers

• Pickford (EVE, £5.5m) — projected 3.65 pts vs IPS (H)
• Trafford (LEE, £5m) — projected 3.65 pts vs CRY (H)
• Sels (NFO, £5m) — projected 3.65 pts vs COV (H)

Defenders

• Tarkowski (EVE, £6.1m) — projected 3.91 pts vs IPS (H)
• Muharemović (LEE, £5m) — projected 3.84 pts vs CRY (H)
• Gvardiol (MCI, £5.7m) — projected 3.84 pts vs SUN (H)

Midfielders

• B.Fernandes (MUN, £12m) — projected 3 pts vs FUL (A)
• Gibbs-White (NFO, £8m) — projected 2.9 pts vs COV (H)
• Tavernier (BOU, £6.1m) — projected 2.88 pts vs LIV (H)

Forwards

• Haaland (MCI, £15.5m) — projected 2.56 pts vs SUN (H)
• João Pedro (CHE, £7.8m) — projected 2.53 pts vs BRE (A) — carrying a doubt, check the team news
• Calvert-Lewin (LEE, £6m) — projected 2.32 pts vs CRY (H)

The full table for every position is on the TACTIX FPL hub. The fixture matrix is free; the complete projection table is part of Pro.

Method

Projections are built from real minutes and involvement this season, combined with our venue-adjusted opponent ratings. Every figure here is a likelihood estimate, never a promise — how the model works and how it has actually done.

This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →