Football Prediction Accuracy: How Accurate Is TACTIX?

Football prediction accuracy at TACTIX is measured as calibration, and across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) the model sits within ±0.2% of how often those outcomes actually happened, counting each prediction graded since the public record began. Winners and losers both count, in every market the model prices, and the figure is recomputed from the database on a schedule rather than typed in.

The Calibration Chart, With Every Sample Size

Each circle is one 10-point probability bucket: how likely the model said its outcomes were, against how often they actually happened. A perfectly calibrated model sits on the dashed line. Winners and losers are both in every bucket, and the table gives the number of predictions behind each point.

Do Hot Streaks Last?

Each observation is one appearance by one player for one market line. Appearances are taken oldest first and counted as in the hit meters (last eight played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes); a match where the statistic was not recorded for the player’s team is left out, and a match the player did not appear in is not counted at all. For every appearance with at least eight counted appearances before it, we note how many of those eight cleared the line (zero to eight) and whether this one did. Intervals are Wilson 95% intervals. A row with fewer than 200 observations shows its count only.

• Shots (line 1.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 2,194 of 3,093 times (70.9%), against 17.5% for all 1,294,508 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Shots on target (line 0.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 2,836 of 4,237 times (66.9%), against 24.9% for all 1,254,546 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Goal or assist (line 0.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 165 of 284 times (58.1%), against 14.6% for all 1,296,963 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Fouls committed (line 1.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 479 of 828 times (57.9%), against 22.4% for all 1,295,384 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Fouls won (line 0.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 36,517 of 47,403 times (77.0%), against 50.6% for all 1,295,351 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Tackles (line 1.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 3,626 of 5,627 times (64.4%), against 30.7% for all 1,260,204 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Offsides (line 0.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 453 of 744 times (60.9%), against 13.3% for all 854,294 observations. The intervals do not overlap.
• Saves (goalkeepers) (line 2.5): players who had hit the line in eight of their last eight hit it in their next appearance 927 of 1,447 times (64.1%), against 55.7% for all 89,178 observations. The intervals do not overlap.

Counts of past appearances. Not a forecast. As of 6 November 2026, from 12,531,317 observations. The cells as CSV · the same figures as JSON. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org

The Latest Monthly Scorecard — October 2026

Every month we publish the same measurement for that month alone, good months and bad. In October 2026: 2,158,088 settled predictions, with stated and observed rates differing by 0.4 percentage points on average.

In October 2026 the bookmakers’ closing prices were more accurate than the model (log-loss difference +0.022, 95% interval +0.017 to +0.028 across 31 match days). The comparison uses the 11,158 of 38,471 predictions that had a closing price captured within 6 hours of kick-off.

Read the October 2026 scorecard · the latest scorecard, always

Why Is Calibration the Right Test of Football Prediction Accuracy?

A single "accuracy %" mostly reflects how predictable a league or market is, and it is easy to flatter by picking easy markets. Calibration asks whether the stated probabilities are honest: when the model says 70%, does that outcome happen about seven times in ten? That is the property that matters when you use a probability to make a decision, so it is the number we publish, next to the count of predictions behind it.

Verified Live — With the Losers Shown

Our calibration and track record update from settled results in public, losing predictions included. You can watch it on the live scoreboard. We never hide bad weeks and we never sell "guaranteed" tips — a prediction is a probability, not a certainty, and no model reliably beats the bookmakers' margin.

How We Measure It

• Every graded prediction counts — winners and losers alike, across every market the model prices. Nothing is removed for looking bad.Predictions that could not be graded against a result (n = 2,279,487, all-time, all markets, player markets included, counted 2026-11-06) are marked void and are not in these figures. Each match is graded on the forecasts of the one model that served it. Pre-match forecasts only; 4,255,252 written after kick-off are not counted. Since 1 Nov 2026, the record counts forecasts written before kick-off only.
• Calibration error is the average gap, in percentage points, between the probability the model stated and how often those outcomes happened, measured in 10-point buckets and weighted by the number of predictions in each.
• The figure is recomputed from the database every six hours, and the page shows the result of the latest run with the number of predictions it covers.
• Each month is published on its own: a monthly scorecard counts only the matches that kicked off in that month, and compares the model with the bookmakers’ closing prices, margin removed — whichever way that comparison falls.

What the Confidence Tiers Mean

Every pick carries a model probability. We bucket them into three fixed-threshold tiers and report each one’s real win rate. The tiers are fixed probability thresholds, so a “Gold” pick means the same thing in every market and league.

• Gold — highest-confidence calls: 95% hit rate, 592,341 of 621,981 picks from 6,289 matches (95–95%).
• Silver — strong leans: 92% hit rate, 891,112 of 972,941 picks from 6,290 matches (91–92%).
• Bronze — solid value: 87% hit rate, 1,123,692 of 1,284,274 picks from 6,290 matches (87–88%).

Ranges in brackets are 95% intervals on the rated picks' hit rate, counting each match once: picks in the same match tend to land or miss together.

These tier rates are pooled across every market, so the headline average leans towards high-volume markets like over/under goals. Match result (1X2) — the hardest market to call — is shown on its own row in the table below; read the by-market figures, not the pooled average, as the honest measure of accuracy.

Accuracy by Market

How the Model Is Built

TACTIX's forecasts are market-informed: the model's estimates, calibrated market by market, are blended with bookmakers' prices at the weight stated below. A dedicated three-way match-result model blends expected goals (xG) with a team Elo rating. On top of its base model, the current model adds per-market calibration (each market tuned to its own reliability), a dedicated three-way match-result model that combines expected goals with team Elo ratings, and, where it is switched on, a stacking layer over the base model's probabilities. Full detail is on our methodology page and the live performance is on the Model Scoreboard.

Market-informed forecasts. The weight in use: the match-result pick's probability and the both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals probabilities are blended with the bookmakers' implied probabilities at a fixed weight of 0.25 on the market.

Frequently Asked

How accurate are TACTIX's football predictions?

TACTIX's model is calibrated to within ±0.2% across 6M+ settled predictions (all markets, player markets included). When it states a 60% chance, the outcome happens close to 60% of the time. We publish calibration error rather than a single accuracy figure because it is the honest measure of a probability.

How often do TACTIX's Gold, Silver and Bronze picks land?

By confidence tier, settled to date: Gold (a model probability of 90% or more): 95% hit rate, 592,341 of 621,981 picks from 6,289 matches (95–95%); Silver (80% or more, Gold included): 92% hit rate, 891,112 of 972,941 picks from 6,290 matches (91–92%); Bronze (70% or more, Silver and Gold included): 87% hit rate, 1,123,692 of 1,284,274 picks from 6,290 matches (87–88%). These rates are pooled across every market, so they lean towards high-volume markets such as over/under goals. Ranges in brackets are 95% intervals on the rated picks' hit rate, counting each match once: picks in the same match tend to land or miss together.

What does "calibrated" mean?

A calibrated model's stated probabilities match reality over the long run: events it calls 30% happen about 30% of the time, 70% about 70%. It is the property that makes a probability trustworthy for decisions.

Does TACTIX guarantee winning bets?

No. A prediction is a probability, not a certainty. Football is high-variance and no model reliably beats the bookmakers' margin. TACTIX publishes calibrated probabilities and its track record, losers included, and never sells guaranteed tips.

How is the TACTIX model built?

It is a model calibrated market-by-market whose estimates are blended with bookmakers' prices at the weight stated above, with a three-way match-result model that blends expected goals (xG) and a team Elo rating.

Can I see TACTIX's track record?

Yes — live on the scoreboard, with losing predictions included, so the record is verifiable rather than marketing.

How do I get TACTIX's predictions?

Each match page carries a free model pick. The full win probability, expected-goals breakdown and value across 240+ markets are part of TACTIX Pro.