The TACTIX model scorecard for October 2026 covers 2,158,088 predictions settled with a kick-off in the month, from the rule-based-v2 model: how closely their probabilities matched what actually happened, bucket by bucket, and how they compared with the bookmakers’ closing prices. Every month is published the same way, good or bad.
How Well Calibrated Was the TACTIX Model in October 2026?
In October 2026, the TACTIX model’s stated probabilities and the observed results differed by 0.4 percentage points on average across 2,158,088 settled predictions with a kick-off in the month, weighted by the number of predictions in each 10-point bucket.
Calibration
When the model gives an outcome a 60% chance, it should happen about 60% of the time. In October 2026 the model’s stated probabilities and the observed rates differed by 0.4 percentage points on average, weighted by the number of predictions in each bucket, across those 2,158,088 predictions.
| Probability bucket | Average predicted | Happened | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 463,377 |
| 10–20% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 237,635 |
| 20–30% | 24.9% | 24.2% | 169,862 |
| 30–40% | 35.2% | 34.6% | 152,190 |
| 40–50% | 45.1% | 45.1% | 159,975 |
| 50–60% | 54.8% | 54.8% | 145,932 |
| 60–70% | 64.9% | 65.5% | 144,345 |
| 70–80% | 75.0% | 76.0% | 150,215 |
| 80–90% | 85.5% | 86.1% | 201,548 |
| 90–100% | 95.7% | 95.8% | 333,009 |
Against the Bookmakers’ Closing Prices
For match-result, over/under 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score predictions, we compare each probability with the bookmakers’ closing price for the same outcome, with the margin removed. A closing price counts only when it was captured within 6 hours of kick-off. In October 2026 a closing price was available for 11,158 of 38,471 of those predictions.
In October 2026 the bookmakers’ closing prices were more accurate than the model (log-loss difference +0.022, 95% interval +0.017 to +0.028 across 31 match days). Across those 11,158 paired predictions the model’s Brier score was 0.222 and the closing prices’ was 0.212 (lower is better for both).
| Market | With a closing price | Model Brier | Closing-price Brier | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 5,442 of 6,789 | 0.197 | 0.186 | closing prices more accurate |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | 3,422 of 27,156 | 0.245 | 0.235 | closing prices more accurate |
| Both teams to score | 2,294 of 4,526 | 0.249 | 0.242 | closing prices more accurate |
On the 1,814 matches with a complete closing 1X2 price, the ranked probability score was 0.209 for the model and 0.192 for the closing prices (lower is better).
How This Is Measured
- A prediction belongs to the month its match kicked off in, not the month it was settled.
- Each prediction with a result is graded against it — losing ones included. A month with fewer than 500 settled predictions is not published.
- Calibration buckets are 10 points wide; the average gap is weighted by the predictions in each bucket.
- The closing price is the last complete bookmaker price at or before kick-off (Pinnacle first, then Betfair, then the median of complete books), with the margin removed. Older prices are not used.
- The interval on the difference is a 95% bootstrap interval that resamples whole match days, so one busy Saturday cannot decide the result.
The live, all-time picture is on How accurate is TACTIX? and the Model Scoreboard.
TACTIX Model Scorecard October 2026 — FAQs
How many predictions does the October 2026 scorecard cover?
2,158,088 settled predictions with a kick-off in October 2026, from the rule-based-v2 model. Winners and losers count the same, and a month under the sample floor is not published.
What does a calibration gap of 0.4 points mean?
Across the 2,158,088 predictions of October 2026, outcomes the model gave a stated chance happened, on average, 0.4 percentage points more or less often than that chance, weighted by bucket size.
Where is the all-time record?
On How accurate is TACTIX? and the live scoreboard, recomputed daily. This scorecard covers October 2026 only.
Sources and data: the live scoreboard · the Supercomputer · the open data catalogue. Cite as “TACTIX (tactix.football)”.
18+. TACTIX scorecards are model-informed analysis — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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