World Cup 2026 Predictions
Calibrated World Cup 2026 predictions from TACTIX — every fixture graded by model confidence, with an open, honest track record. Free tiers, updated daily.
Football analytics glossary: every term, grouped by guide
The football analytics glossary: plain-English definitions of xG, calibration, Poisson, Elo, closing line value, Kelly and more, by topic.
Regression to the mean explained
Regression to the mean is the tendency for extreme performances — a striker’s hot streak, a team’s run of clean sheets — to drift back toward their long-run…
Monte Carlo simulation explained
A Monte Carlo simulation runs a model many thousands of times with random outcomes to estimate the distribution of results — for example, simulating a…
Implied probability & overround explained
Implied probability is the chance an outcome’s odds suggest (1 divided by the decimal odds).
Kelly criterion explained
The Kelly criterion is a staking formula that sizes a bet in proportion to your estimated edge and the odds, to maximise long-run bankroll growth.
Closing line value (CLV) explained
Closing line value is the difference between the odds you took and the final “closing” odds just before kick-off.
Expected points (xPts) explained
Expected points is the league points a team should have earned on average, given the quality of chances created and conceded in each match, rather than the…
Dixon-Coles model explained
Dixon-Coles (1997) is a refinement of the Poisson goals model that corrects the dependence between home and away goals in low-scoring games and weights…
Elo rating explained
Elo is a rating system, originally from chess, that updates a team’s strength after every match based on the result and the opponent’s rating — beating a…
Poisson distribution explained
The Poisson distribution is a probability model for counting independent events in a fixed period.
World Cup 2026 power ranking: the model’s favourites
TACTIX's World Cup 2026 power ranking — the model's favourites by average win probability across upcoming fixtures, updated daily.
FIFA World Cup preview
FIFA World Cup preview: TACTIX's data-driven look at the upcoming fixtures, each graded by model confidence, with the picks our model likes.
How to Read Betting Odds and Convert Them to Probability
Odds show what a bet pays and its implied chance. Decimal, fractional and American formats explained, plus how to convert odds to a probability and spot the mar
Accumulators (Accas) Explained — and How to Find Value
An acca combines several selections into one bet where every leg must win. How the odds multiply, the real risk, and how to build accas with value.
BTTS (Both Teams to Score) Explained
BTTS wins if both teams score at least once, whatever the result. How it works, what drives the probability, and how TACTIX prices it.
Value Betting Explained: Model Probability vs the Odds
“Value” or “edge” is the gap between a model’s probability and the probability implied by the odds. How to spot it, and why it only pays off over the long run.
What is Model Calibration in Football Predictions?
Calibration tests whether a model’s probabilities are honest — when it says 60%, does it happen 60% of the time? Why it matters more than a headline “accuracy”
What is xG (Expected Goals)? A Clear Guide
Expected goals (xG) measures chance quality — the probability each shot becomes a goal. How xG is calculated, what counts as good, and where it falls short.
World Cup 2026 Group L preview & prediction
Group L preview: England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama analysed, with TACTIX's predicted final standings and who we tip to qualify.
World Cup 2026 Group K preview & prediction
Group K preview: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan and DR Congo analysed, with TACTIX's predicted final standings and who we tip to qualify.
World Cup 2026 Group J preview & prediction
Group J preview: Argentina, Austria, Algeria and Jordan analysed, with TACTIX's predicted final standings and who we tip to qualify.
World Cup 2026 Group I preview & prediction
Group I preview: France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq analysed, with TACTIX's predicted final standings and who we tip to qualify.
World Cup 2026 Group H preview & prediction
Group H preview: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia analysed, with TACTIX's predicted final standings and who we tip to qualify.