Issue #6 of our Premier League simulation report: as of 26 October 2026, Arsenal are the title favourites on 53.2% across 10,000 simulated seasons.

Issue #6 · week 2026-W44 · simulations updated 26 October 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league

The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.

Premier League Simulation Report #6: Three Lines You Can Quote

  • Arsenal won the Premier League title in 53.2% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #6)
  • The gap at the top: Arsenal 53.2% vs Manchester City 42.5% — a 10.7-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #6)
  • 3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #6)

Who Is Favourite to Win the Premier League 2026/27?

Arsenal are favourites: they won the title in 53.2% of 10,000 simulated seasons, as of 26 October 2026, ahead of Manchester City on 42.5%. The table below gives every club’s title, Top 4 and relegation chances and the change since the last run.

Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table

Premier League 2026/27: 10,000 simulated seasons (as of 26 October 2026)
#ClubTitleΔTop 4RelegationAvg pts
1Arsenal53.2%−0.1pp99.4%0%80.7
2Manchester City42.5%+0.2pp99.0%0%79.1
3Brighton3.4%−0.3pp78.2%0%67.5
4Liverpool0.5%+0.2pp44.6%<0.1%62
5Chelsea0.1%+0.1pp17.1%0.5%56.3
6Brentford0.1%·14.9%0.5%55.5
7Aston Villa<0.1%·13.4%0.8%55.4
8Manchester United<0.1%·11.3%1.1%54.2
9Leeds<0.1%·8.1%1.6%52.9
10Bournemouth0%·4.9%2.8%51.1
11Newcastle<0.1%·2.8%4.5%49.3
12Everton0%·2.4%5.5%48.6
13Nottingham Forest0%·1.6%7.1%47.6
14Fulham0%·1.5%8.5%46.9
15Hull City0%·0.6%13.5%45.1
16Tottenham0%·0.1%27.4%41.7
17Ipswich0%·<0.1%36.1%40.3
18Sunderland0%·<0.1%48.4%38.2
19Crystal Palace0%·<0.1%52.8%37.7
20Coventry0%·0%88.9%30.3

Club by Club

One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:

  • Arsenal (1/20 by simulation) — title 53.2% (−0.1pp on the last run), top four 99.4%, averaging 80.7 pts.
  • Manchester City (2/20 by simulation) — title 42.5% (+0.2pp on the last run), top four 99.0%, averaging 79.1 pts.
  • Brighton (3/20 by simulation) — title 3.4% (−0.3pp on the last run), top four 78.2%, averaging 67.5 pts.
  • Liverpool (4/20 by simulation) — title 0.5% (+0.2pp on the last run), top four 44.6%, averaging 62 pts.
  • Chelsea (5/20 by simulation) — top four 17.1% (title +0.1pp), relegation 0.5%, averaging 56.3 pts.
  • Brentford (6/20 by simulation) — top four 14.9%, relegation 0.5%, averaging 55.5 pts.
  • Aston Villa (7/20 by simulation) — top four 13.4%, relegation 0.8%, averaging 55.4 pts.
  • Manchester United (8/20 by simulation) — top four 11.3%, relegation 1.1%, averaging 54.2 pts.
  • Leeds (9/20 by simulation) — top four 8.1%, relegation 1.6%, averaging 52.9 pts.
  • Bournemouth (10/20 by simulation) — top four 4.9%, relegation 2.8%, averaging 51.1 pts.
  • Newcastle (11/20 by simulation) — top four 2.8%, relegation 4.5%, averaging 49.3 pts.
  • Everton (12/20 by simulation) — relegation 5.5%, top-half push 2.4%, averaging 48.6 pts.
  • Nottingham Forest (13/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.1% (−0.7pp), top-half push 1.6%, averaging 47.6 pts.
  • Fulham (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 8.5% (−0.9pp), top-half push 1.5%, averaging 46.9 pts.
  • Hull City (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 13.5% (−1.0pp), top-half push 0.6%, averaging 45.1 pts.
  • Tottenham (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 27.4% (−0.4pp), top-half push 0.1%, averaging 41.7 pts.
  • Ipswich (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 36.1% (−0.3pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 40.3 pts.
  • Sunderland (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 48.4% (+3.8pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 38.2 pts.
  • Crystal Palace (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 52.8% (+2.3pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 37.7 pts.
  • Coventry (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 88.9% (−1.1pp), top-half push 0%, averaging 30.3 pts.

Movers Elsewhere

  • Bundesliga (Austria): WSG Wattens — top spots 22.8% (−2.6pp).
  • Challenger Pro League: AS Eupen — top spots 16.1% (−3.3pp).
  • Jupiler Pro League: Gent — top spots 75.2% (+6.5pp).
  • Série A: Fluminense — top spots 63.2% (−1.4pp).
  • Bundesliga: RB Leipzig — top spots 60.7% (−8.6pp).
  • Championship: Southampton — title 31.3% (+2.6pp).
  • Super League (China): Beijing Guoan — title 70.6% (+1.2pp).
  • Superliga (Denmark): AC Horsens — top spots 56.1% (+8.2pp).
  • League One: Huddersfield — top spots 46.8% (+6.2pp).
  • League Two: Salford City — top spots 55.7% (−3.0pp).
  • National League: Boreham Wood — title 88.5% (+1.4pp).
  • Ligue 2: Saint Etienne — title 75.1% (+8.6pp).
  • 2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Nürnberg — top spots 38.4% (−0.5pp).
  • Super League 1 (Greece): Kalamata — top spots 20.5% (−18.4pp).
  • Serie B: Palermo — title 74.3% (+2.7pp).
  • La Liga: Barcelona — title 85.5% (−8.5pp).
  • Ligue 1: Paris Saint-Germain — title 62.7% (−4.8pp).
  • Eredivisie: Twente — top spots 23.5% (+10.1pp).
  • Eliteserien: Viking — title 69.8% (−2.2pp).
  • Ekstraklasa: Lech Poznan — title 76.2% (+1.8pp).
  • Primeira Liga: FC Porto — title 67.1% (+10.3pp).
  • Saudi Pro League: Al-Hilal Saudi FC — title 67.4% (+1.6pp).
  • Serie A: AC Milan — top spots 43.2% (+9.4pp).
  • Segunda División: Castellón — title 50.7% (+10.5pp).
  • Allsvenskan: Sirius — title 82.2% (+0.6pp).
  • Süper Lig: Beşiktaş — top spots 17.9% (+3.2pp).
  • Premier League (Ukraine): Polessya — title 17.8% (−4.2pp).
  • Cymru Premier: Cardiff MET — top spots 20.0% (−3.3pp).

Model vs the Market, This Week

The model’s settled hit rate against the bookmaker favourite, from the live accuracy leaderboard (last-12-months window, all leagues, losers included):

MarketSettled picksModelBookmaker favouriteModel − favouriteΔ model since last issue
Double chance10,39874.1%78.7%-4.6 pp·
Both teams to score10,37154.3%56.8%-2.5 pp·
Total goals (over / under)10,36394.7%95.2%-0.5 pp·

Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often” — it is not a profitability claim; probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises. Definitions and every league’s cells: the leaderboard.

Method, in One Paragraph

Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #6”.

TACTIX Simulation Report #6 — FAQs

How many simulations does the report use?

10,000 simulated seasons per league, re-run from the current table and the remaining fixtures; this issue uses the run of 26 October 2026.

Who is most likely to be relegated?

Coventry: relegated in 88.9% of the 10,000 simulated seasons as of 26 October 2026. The table above has every club’s figure.

Where is the live, always-current version?

On the TACTIX Supercomputer, which shows the same numbers as this issue and updates after every run.

Sources and data: the live scoreboard · the Supercomputer · the open data catalogue. Cite as “TACTIX (tactix.football)”.

18+. TACTIX simulations are model estimates — not betting advice or guarantees. Please gamble responsibly — support at BeGambleAware.org.

This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →

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