3 posts
Start with the hub: Model vs bookmaker leaderboard. Below, every TACTIX article on this topic, newest first.
Implied probability is the chance an outcome’s odds suggest (1 divided by the decimal odds).
Closing line value is the difference between the odds you took and the final “closing” odds just before kick-off.
“Value” or “edge” is the gap between a model’s probability and the probability implied by the odds. How to spot it, and why it only pays off over the long run.