FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen prediction

Bundesliga · · Mewa Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Werder Bremen · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen, Bundesliga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FSV Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 14:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

FSV Mainz 05 have scored in five consecutive matches.

Werder Bremen have scored in seven consecutive matches. Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last five matches.

Form and the table

Nine of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results (47%). At home, FSV Mainz 05 have one win, one draw and five defeats in their last 7 home matches — 0.57 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 2.14. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

10 of Werder Bremen’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Werder Bremen’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, Werder Bremen have two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.50. Werder Bremen have scored 12 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Werder Bremen have conceded 12 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

FSV Mainz 05 (fifth) and Werder Bremen (eighth) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Werder Bremen the stronger side, 15 rating points above FSV Mainz 05 (Werder Bremen 1585, FSV Mainz 05 1570, after at least 280 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05.

Team news

Predicted FSV Mainz 05 XI (3-1-4-2): A. Schwolow, F. Gruber, S. Posch, K. Potulski, N. Amiri, K. Sano, P. Mwene, A. Caci, L. Jae-Sung, P. Tietz, S. Becker — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Phillip Tietz (7.0 per match over seven appearances, nine goals) and Nadiem Amiri (5.3 per match over seven appearances, two goals and three assists) have been FSV Mainz 05’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FSV Mainz 05 (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Phillip Tietz averages 3.7 shots per 90 over 614 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances. Nadiem Amiri averages 3.3 key passes per 90 over 761 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Werder Bremen XI (4-2-3-1): K. Hein, O. Deman, M. Friedl, A. Pieper, Arthur, L. Reis, M. Grüll, Y. Regeer, C. José, E. Dinkçi, N. Füllkrug — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Marco Grüll (7.0 per match over seven appearances, two goals and five assists) and Niclas Füllkrug (6.3 per match over seven appearances, seven goals) have been Werder Bremen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Werder Bremen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Marco Grüll averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 625 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last nine appearances. Niclas Füllkrug averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 546 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · Mewa Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): FSV Mainz 05 1 · draws 1 · Werder Bremen 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L · Werder Bremen 2W 3D 0L

TACTIX runs FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen (Bundesliga) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

3.13 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
5.13 / 4.5
Corners
against 4.13 / 5.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
7.13 / 6.5
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 5.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2 / 1
Cards
against 1.63 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameFSV Mainz 05 for / againstLineWerder Bremen for / against
Goals scored
3.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.25our book
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
19 for · 12.5 against n 8
19.5standard
14.63 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
7.13 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.13 for · 10.13 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1 for · 1 against n 8
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Tietz n 887.3
2.36/5
1.25/2
—
K. Potulski n 869.8
2.35/4
0.64/0
—
L. Maloney n 87.1
1.61/0
00/0
—
F. Gruber n 885
1.55/3
0.11/0
—
E. Martel n 868
1.55/3
0.84/1
—
FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
3.58/8
1.98/5
R. Königsdörffer n 831.9
3.56/3
1.13/0
S. Becker n 872.3
2.66/5
25/5
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
2.66/2
1.23/2
W. Bøving n 822.8
2.54/1
0.51/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
1.36/2
0.11/0
S. Becker n 872.3
0.53/0
0.52/1
A. Caci n 867.1
0.31/1
0.53/0
N. Amiri n 887.5
0.31/1
0.42/1
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Ruoppi n 852.6
2.64/4
W. Bøving n 822.8
2.54/1
P. Mwene n 888
2.48/5
A. Caci n 867.1
2.25/3
D. da Costa n 846.1
2.25/2
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Schwolow n 890
2.96/4
R. Zentner n 881.8
2.96/4
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Itten n 820.5
3.33/2
0.51/0
—
N. Füllkrug n 871.9
2.36/4
0.94/2
—
Dariusz Stalmach n 829.3
2.34/2
1.54/0
—
R. Schmid n 875.1
1.87/3
0.74/1
—
J. Stage n 883.1
1.56/4
0.74/1
—
Werder Bremen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Füllkrug n 871.9
3.37/5
2.37/4
M. Weiser n 857.6
2.15/3
13/2
J. Stage n 883.1
27/5
1.45/4
P. Erevbenagie n 518.2
22/0
11/0
J. Njinmah n 870.4
1.85/4
1.14/2
Werder Bremen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Dariusz Stalmach n 829.3
0.82/0
0.41/0
N. Füllkrug n 871.9
1.16/1
00/0
M. Grüll n 876
0.32/0
0.64/0
J. Stage n 883.1
0.74/1
0.11/0
R. Schmid n 875.1
0.11/0
0.63/1
Werder Bremen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Erevbenagie n 518.2
44/0
Dariusz Stalmach n 829.3
3.85/3
O. Deman n 890
3.18/5
S. Lynen n 878.8
37/6
M. Grüll n 876
2.74/4
Werder Bremen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Hein n 890
3.67/4

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FSV Mainz 05WLWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Werder BremenWDWDD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
FSV Mainz 05 1 · 1 draw · Werder Bremen 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-03-15 Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2025-11-01 FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder Bremen
  • 2025-01-31 Werder Bremen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2024-09-15 FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen
  • 2024-02-03 FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder Bremen
  • 2023-09-02 Werder Bremen 4–0 FSV Mainz 05
League standing · 2026/27
FSV Mainz 05#5 pos10 pts6 pl+4 GD
Werder Bremen#8 pos9 pts6 pl0 GD
Goals per game
FSV Mainz 05 scored2.33
Werder Bremen scored2
FSV Mainz 05 conceded1.67
Werder Bremen conceded2

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen?
In their last 6 meetings, FSV Mainz 05 won 1, Werder Bremen won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen?
Recent form — FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L; Werder Bremen 2W 3D 0L.

Today’s boards

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