SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV prediction

Bundesliga · · Home Deluxe Arena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · Hamburger SV · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home shots total over 9.5 the free pick for SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV, Bundesliga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 14:30 BST.

Free pick
Home shots total over 9.5
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
Match preview, in numbers

The match

SC Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 14:30 UK); the model’s free pick is SC Paderborn 07 shots total over 9.5, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Hamburger SV.

Form and the table

Nine of SC Paderborn 07’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of SC Paderborn 07’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, SC Paderborn 07 have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.86. SC Paderborn 07 have scored five goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). SC Paderborn 07 have conceded nine goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

11 of Hamburger SV’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Hamburger SV’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Hamburger SV have three wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 1.11 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 2.33. Hamburger SV have scored six goals, the fourth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Hamburger SV have conceded 15 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs.

Hamburger SV have won their last three matches in all competitions. SC Paderborn 07 (16th) and Hamburger SV (ninth) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Hamburger SV the stronger side, 109 rating points above SC Paderborn 07 (Hamburger SV 1563, SC Paderborn 07 1455, after at least 42 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 2 March 2025, finished SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV.

Team news

Predicted SC Paderborn 07 XI (3-5-2): N. Noll, T. Scheller, J. ter Horst, M. Hansen, S. Castañeda, L. Curda, R. Obermair, L. Ulrich, G. Vidovic, M. Pieringer, S. Marino — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Santiago Castañeda (5.0 per match over seven appearances, two goals) and Laurin Curda (4.9 per match over seven appearances, one assist) have been SC Paderborn 07’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for SC Paderborn 07 (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Santiago Castañeda averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 630 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances. Laurin Curda averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 607 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Hamburger SV XI (3-4-2-1): D. Fernandes, N. Capaldo, S. Bornauw, J. Torunarigha, D. Møller Wolfe, N. Remberg, A. Sambi Lokonga, Z. El Ouahdi, L. Lemke, M. Adeline, A. Grønbæk — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Grønbæk (5.0 per match over six appearances, two goals and two assists) and N. Capaldo (4.2 per match over seven appearances, one goal) have been Hamburger SV’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Hamburger SV (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Grønbæk averages 1.1 shots per 90 over 417 minutes, with a shot in two of the last seven appearances. N. Capaldo averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 628 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · Home Deluxe Arena
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): SC Paderborn 07 3 · draws 2 · Hamburger SV 1 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: SC Paderborn 07 1W 1D 3L · Hamburger SV 3W 0D 2L

SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV (Bundesliga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.5 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.75 / 3.38
Corners
against 5.88 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 6 / 5.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 1.38
Cards
against 1.88 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSC Paderborn 07 for / againstLineHamburger SV for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.25our book
1.25 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
6.75 for · 5.88 against n 8
9.5standard
3.38 for · 5.75 against n 8
Shots
18.13 for · 16.63 against n 8
19.5standard
12 for · 19.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4.75 for · 6 against n 8
8.5standard
4.25 for · 5.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 11.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13.5 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 2 against n 8
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Pieringer n 869
2.97/5
0.84/1
—
F. Bilbija n 847.8
2.14/3
1.23/2
—
S. Klaas n 837.1
2.14/2
0.31/0
—
M. Baur n 863.4
1.84/3
0.73/1
—
L. Curda n 890.9
1.55/3
1.46/2
—
SC Paderborn 07 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Tigges n 837.4
5.77/7
1.23/1
R. Philippe n 824.1
3.77/1
1.94/0
S. Marino n 861.6
2.45/5
1.34/3
M. Baur n 863.4
1.85/2
1.25/1
F. Bilbija n 847.8
1.62/2
0.21/0
SC Paderborn 07 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Tigges n 837.4
0.62/0
0.31/0
S. Klaas n 837.1
0.31/0
0.31/0
S. Marino n 861.6
0.53/0
00/0
O. Batista Meier n 823.8
00/0
0.51/0
M. Baur n 863.4
0.42/0
00/0
SC Paderborn 07 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Jonah Benedict Sticker n 831.6
4.34/4
M. Baur n 863.4
3.46/5
L. Curda n 890.9
3.17/7
C. Brackelmann n 886.3
2.78/8
T. Scheller n 893.1
2.28/5
SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Noll n 890
46/6
M. Schubert n 893.6
3.67/4
D. Seimen n 893.8
3.47/4
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Otto Emerson Stange n 836.6
46/4
1.55/0
—
N. Capaldo n 878.5
2.17/6
1.74/2
—
M. Adeline n 864.5
2.16/4
0.52/1
—
L. Lemke n 748.7
1.83/3
0.31/0
—
L. Vušković n 878.8
1.76/3
15/1
—
Hamburger SV — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Philippe n 824.1
3.77/1
1.94/0
Y. Poulsen n 832
2.83/3
1.12/1
Fábio Vieira n 872
2.57/5
1.66/2
P. Daka n 868.6
1.86/3
00/0
T. Moffi n 833.4
1.74/1
13/0
Hamburger SV — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Muheim n 838
0.62/0
0.31/0
A. Grønbæk n 863.4
0.41/1
0.41/1
Y. Poulsen n 832
0.72/0
00/0
L. Lemke n 748.7
0.31/0
0.31/0
M. Adeline n 864.5
0.21/0
0.32/0
Hamburger SV — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Capaldo n 878.5
2.97/5
A. Grønbæk n 863.4
2.85/4
Zakaria El Ouahdi n 875.6
2.56/4
M. Adeline n 864.5
2.34/3
L. Lemke n 748.7
2.14/4
Hamburger SV — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Tangvik n 890
4.48/6
Daniel Heuer Fernandes n 890
3.26/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SC Paderborn 07LLWLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Hamburger SVLLWWW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
SC Paderborn 07 3 · 2 draws · Hamburger SV 1 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2025-03-02 SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV
  • 2024-09-28 Hamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 07
  • 2024-05-10 SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV
  • 2023-12-09 Hamburger SV 1–2 SC Paderborn 07
  • 2023-05-05 Hamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 07
  • 2022-10-30 SC Paderborn 07 2–3 Hamburger SV
League standing · 2026/27
SC Paderborn 07#16 pos5 pts6 pl-4 GD
Hamburger SV#9 pos9 pts6 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
SC Paderborn 07 scored0.83
Hamburger SV scored1
SC Paderborn 07 conceded1.5
Hamburger SV conceded2.5

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV?
TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV is Home shots total over 9.5.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
In their last 6 meetings, SC Paderborn 07 won 3, Hamburger SV won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
Recent form — SC Paderborn 07 1W 1D 3L; Hamburger SV 3W 0D 2L.

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