Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund prediction

Bundesliga ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Union Berlin · Borussia Dortmund · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund, Bundesliga on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:30 BST.

Free pick
Away win
Best price: 1.67 at William Hill
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 85.4% of 89 landed (95% range 76.6–91.3%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 14:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Borussia Dortmund to win.

The key numbers

12 of Union Berlin’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Borussia Dortmund have scored in 10 consecutive matches. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last seven matches.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in nine of Union Berlin’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Union Berlin have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.57. Union Berlin have scored five goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Union Berlin have conceded 17 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs.

Nine of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in six of Borussia Dortmund’s last 15 results (40%). Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have five wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.71. Borussia Dortmund have scored 11 goals, the seventh-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Borussia Dortmund have conceded four goals, the fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Union Berlin (16th) and Borussia Dortmund (second) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Borussia Dortmund the stronger side, 390 rating points above Union Berlin (Borussia Dortmund 1850, Union Berlin 1461, after at least 245 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Union Berlin. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, finished Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund.

Team news

Predicted Union Berlin XI (4-1-4-1): F. Rønnow, T. Rothe, F. Uduokhai, Z. Van Den Bosch, L. Querfeld, R. Khedira, M. Aebischer, A. Schäfer, A. Kemlein, J. Woo-Yeong, E. Lath — derived from the last 5 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Josip Juranović (5.8 per match over four appearances, three assists) and Leopold Querfeld (5.7 per match over four appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Union Berlin’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Union Berlin (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Josip Juranović averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 328 minutes. Leopold Querfeld averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 360 minutes.

Predicted Borussia Dortmund XI (3-4-2-1): G. Kobel, W. Anton, K. Gadou, N. Schlotterbeck, J. Bellingham, D. Svensson, F. Nmecha, J. Ryerson, J. Veerman, M. Sabitzer, S. Guirassy — derived from the last 5 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nico Schlotterbeck (7.5 per match over three appearances, one goal) and Serhou Guirassy (5.1 per match over seven appearances, four goals and two assists) have been Borussia Dortmund’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Borussia Dortmund (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nico Schlotterbeck averages 3.0 tackles per 90 over 842 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Serhou Guirassy averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 584 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Union Berlin 1 · draws 0 · Borussia Dortmund 5 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L · Borussia Dortmund 4W 1D 0L

TACTIX runs Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 12 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 2.5
Goals
against 2.5 / 1 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
5 / 7
Corners
against 6.63 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.75 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 6.25 / 3.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameUnion Berlin for / againstLineBorussia Dortmund for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.25our book
2.5 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 6.63 against n 8
9.5standard
7 for · 4.75 against n 8
Shots
14.5 for · 15.38 against n 8
19.5standard
17.25 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
6.75 for · 6.25 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 9.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.38 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
Union Berlin
Union Berlin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Ljubičić n 872
1.97/3
0.52/1
—
A. Ilić n 872.8
1.76/4
27/3
—
A. Schäfer n 871.1
1.76/4
1.35/3
—
R. Khedira n 876
1.67/4
0.42/1
—
M. Aebischer n 868.5
1.55/2
0.74/0
—
Union Berlin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Skarke n 829.6
34/3
2.73/3
A. Ilić n 872.8
2.87/6
1.96/4
Ilyas Ansah n 850.4
1.84/2
1.14/1
Jeong Woo-Yeong n 850.1
1.85/2
0.42/0
Livan Burcu n 852.4
1.55/1
0.63/0
Union Berlin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Skarke n 829.6
0.82/0
0.41/0
J. Juranović n 856.3
0.21/0
0.83/1
A. Ilić n 872.8
0.63/1
0.32/0
O. Burke n 874.8
0.32/0
0.21/0
M. Ljubičić n 872
0.31/1
0.21/0
Union Berlin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Juranović n 856.3
2.64/4
T. Rothe n 886.3
2.58/5
A. Schäfer n 871.1
2.46/4
J. Haberer n 846.1
2.46/3
Zeno Van Den Bosch n 881
2.26/6
Union Berlin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Raab n 477.8
4.13/3
F. Rønnow n 882.6
3.46/3
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Konstantinos Karetsas n 853.4
2.37/3
2.36/3
—
C. Chukwuemeka n 827.6
25/0
3.36/2
—
Joey Veerman n 863.3
1.86/4
0.53/0
—
S. Inacio n 856.5
1.85/2
2.26/3
—
M. Albert n 633.7
1.83/1
2.23/2
—
Borussia Dortmund — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Fábio Silva n 834
4.38/2
36/2
S. Guirassy n 883.4
37/6
2.26/5
M. Beier n 863.1
2.36/5
0.53/0
S. Inacio n 856.5
2.25/3
1.45/2
M. Sabitzer n 840.4
2.23/2
0.61/1
Borussia Dortmund — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Fábio Silva n 834
1.34/0
0.72/0
S. Guirassy n 883.4
0.74/1
0.32/0
S. Inacio n 856.5
0.62/1
00/0
M. Sabitzer n 840.4
00/0
0.62/0
F. Nmecha n 864.8
0.52/1
00/0
Borussia Dortmund — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kauã Prates n 824.4
4.25/3
N. Schlotterbeck n 882.8
3.38/5
R. Bensebaïni n 869
3.15/5
J. Bellingham n 868.6
3.18/5
Joey Veerman n 863.3
2.77/5
Borussia Dortmund — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Meyer n 890
2.64/4
G. Kobel n 890
2.35/3

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Union BerlinDLLLW
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 3.4 conceded per game
Borussia DortmundWWWWD
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Union Berlin 1 · 0 draws · Borussia Dortmund 5 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2026-01-24 Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund
  • 2025-08-31 Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin
  • 2025-02-22 Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union Berlin
  • 2024-10-05 Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
  • 2024-03-02 Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
  • 2023-10-07 Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Union Berlin
League standing · 2026/27
Union Berlin#16 pos4 pts5 pl-12 GD
Borussia Dortmund#2 pos13 pts5 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Union Berlin scored1
Borussia Dortmund scored2.2
Union Berlin conceded3.4
Borussia Dortmund conceded0.8

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund is Away win (best price 1.67 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
In their last 6 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Borussia Dortmund won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Recent form — Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L; Borussia Dortmund 4W 1D 0L.

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