Bolton v Middlesbrough prediction
Team pages: Bolton · Middlesbrough · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bolton v Middlesbrough, Championship on Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Bolton host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Friday 23 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Bolton, every meeting checked.
Form and the table
Eight of Bolton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Bolton’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Bolton have four wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.14. Bolton have scored 15 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Bolton have conceded 18 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.
10 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Middlesbrough have three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.38 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.50. Middlesbrough have scored 22 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Middlesbrough have conceded 16 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.
Bolton (15th) and Middlesbrough (third) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Middlesbrough the stronger side, 194 rating points above Bolton (Middlesbrough 1675, Bolton 1481, after at least 103 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 29 August 2023, finished Bolton 1–3 Middlesbrough.
Team news
Predicted Bolton XI (4-2-3-1): G. Bazunu, E. Toal, G. Larrazabal, B. Davies, M. Conway, J. Sheehan, T. Gale, E. Erhahon, S. Iling-Junior, R. Rodrigues, S. Dalby — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Chris Forino-Joseph (4.6 per match over seven appearances) and Max Conway (3.6 per match over 11 appearances, one assist) have been Bolton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bolton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chris Forino-Joseph averages 2.6 tackles per 90 over 616 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last seven appearances. Max Conway averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 693 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Middlesbrough XI (3-4-2-1): R. Vítek, A. Phillips, N. Borges, C. Brittain, A. Morris, S. Berhalter, R. McGree, A. Cozier-Duberry, T. Conway, M. Arfsten, W. Lankshear — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Amario Cozier-Duberry (5.9 per match over seven appearances, two goals and three assists) and Aidan Morris (4.9 per match over 12 appearances, one goal) have been Middlesbrough’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Middlesbrough (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amario Cozier-Duberry averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 583 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last eight appearances. Aidan Morris averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 1060 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Championship · Toughsheet Community Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 5): Bolton 0 · draws 0 · Middlesbrough 5 · 2.6 goals/game
- Recent form: Bolton 3W 1D 1L · Middlesbrough 2W 3D 0L
Bolton v Middlesbrough (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bolton for / against | Line | Middlesbrough for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.75 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.88 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 14.25 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 19.5 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.75 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.63 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 9.63 for · 9.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
Bolton
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Nelson n 8 | 25 | 2.7 | 1.8 | — |
| Thelonius Bair n 8 | 27 | 2.1 | 0.4 | — |
| Ruben Rodrigues n 8 | 52 | 1.9 | 3 | — |
| S. Iling-Junior n 8 | 47.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | — |
| E. Erhahon n 8 | 61.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Nelson n 8 | 25 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Thelonius Bair n 8 | 27 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| R. Hardie n 8 | 22.6 | 2 | 0.5 |
| S. Dalby n 8 | 69.4 | 1.9 | 1 |
| T. Gale n 8 | 65.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thelonius Bair n 8 | 27 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| A. Ito n 8 | 39 | 0.6 | 0 |
| S. Dalby n 8 | 69.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| T. Gale n 8 | 65.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| X. Simons n 8 | 47.8 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Conway n 8 | 60.8 | 3.7 |
| E. Erhahon n 8 | 61.3 | 2.8 |
| C. Forino-Joseph n 8 | 88.3 | 2.5 |
| J. McAtee n 8 | 47.5 | 2.4 |
| J. Nelson n 8 | 25 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Bazunu n 8 | 90 | 3.1 |
| J. Bonham n 8 | 90.9 | 2.7 |
Middlesbrough
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Pukštas n 8 | 63.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | — |
| Maximilian Arfsten n 8 | 38.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | — |
| Sebastian Berhalter n 8 | 55.5 | 2 | 1.4 | — |
| M. Peart-Harris n 8 | 37.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Leo Castledine n 8 | 44.5 | 1.3 | 1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cozier-Duberry n 8 | 72.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| W. Lankshear n 8 | 69.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| R. Pukštas n 8 | 63.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Sebastian Berhalter n 8 | 55.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| K. Joseph n 8 | 37.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sarmiento n 8 | 40.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| A. Cozier-Duberry n 8 | 72.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| W. Lankshear n 8 | 69.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Sebastian Berhalter n 8 | 55.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| T. Conway n 8 | 52.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Morris n 8 | 89.3 | 4 |
| R. Pukštas n 8 | 63.1 | 2.7 |
| Sebastian Berhalter n 8 | 55.5 | 2.6 |
| C. Brittain n 8 | 90 | 2.4 |
| J. Sarmiento n 8 | 40.8 | 2.2 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Bolton v Middlesbrough — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2023-08-29 Bolton 1–3 Middlesbrough
- 2019-04-09 Bolton 0–2 Middlesbrough
- 2018-09-19 Middlesbrough 2–0 Bolton
- 2017-12-26 Middlesbrough 2–0 Bolton
- 2017-09-09 Bolton 0–3 Middlesbrough
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Bolton v Middlesbrough?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bolton v Middlesbrough is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.52 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Middlesbrough?
- In their last 5 meetings, Bolton won 0, Middlesbrough won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bolton and Middlesbrough?
- Recent form — Bolton 3W 1D 1L; Middlesbrough 2W 3D 0L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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