Charlton v Watford result

Full-time · Charlton 1–0 Watford

Championship · Sat, 09 Aug 2025 12:30 BST · The Valley

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Charlton 1–0 Watford — Charlton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.3% of 176 landed (95% range 44.9–59.5%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Charlton beat Watford 1–0 at The Valley in the Championship on Saturday 9 August. Charlton are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Watford are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Charlton: Harvey Knibbs (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Harvey Knibbs’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Charlton 1.16, Watford 0.72, from 12 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Martin showed three yellow cards — against 5.2 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Charlton: Greg Docherty (48’); Watford: Hector Kyprianou (25’) and Kwadwo Baah (52’).

What it changes

Charlton have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Harvey Knibbs (Charlton) 4.8, Lloyd Jones (Charlton) 4.6 and Robert Apter (Charlton) 4.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Charlton next host Norwich on 24 October 2026.

Watford next travel to Wolves on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Charlton: Charlton v Norwich, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Watford: Wolves v Watford, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Charlton 1–0 Watford · Championship
Venue: The Valley · London
Referee: S. Martin
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Charlton 3W 1D 1L · Watford 0W 1D 4L

Charlton 1–0 Watford (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 0.75

Goals

against 0.63 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

2.43 / 6.25

Corners

against 4.86 / 3.25 · 0 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.29 / 3

Shots on target

against 1.57 / 4.75 · 0 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.71 / 3.13

Cards

against 1.14 / 2.75 · 0 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

5.2 yellows

Referee · S. Martin

2.3 home / 2.9 away

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Charlton for / against	Line	Watford for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	2.43 for · 4.86 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.25 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	9.86 for · 9.86 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	12.13 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.29 for · 1.57 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	3 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.29 for · 10.57 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.13 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.71 for · 1.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	3.13 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Martin — 5.2 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21.9 fouls over 10 matches (2.3 to the home side, 2.9 to the away side).

Home 2.3Away 2.9

Charlton

Charlton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Hylton n 8	11.1	5.1 4/1	4 3/1	—
C. Aneke n 8	24.4	3.2 5/1	0.9 2/0	—
Karoy Anderson n 8	29.6	3 6/1	1.1 3/0	—
Micah Mbick n 8	13.8	2.5 2/1	0.8 1/0	—
D. Kanu n 8	17.9	1.9 3/0	0.6 1/0	—

Charlton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Aneke n 8	24.4	5.1 6/2	2.3 5/0
D. Kanu n 8	17.9	1.9 2/1	1.3 2/0
M. Godden n 8	84.5	1.7 7/5	1.3 7/3
A. Gilbert n 8	38.4	1.5 4/1	0 0/0
L. Berry n 8	63.6	1.4 4/3	0.7 3/1

Charlton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Aneke n 8	24.4	0 0/0	1.4 3/0
D. Hylton n 8	11.1	1 1/0	0 0/0
L. Berry n 8	63.6	0.4 2/0	0.4 1/1
Micah Mbick n 8	13.8	0.8 1/0	0 0/0
M. Godden n 8	84.5	0.7 4/1	0 0/0

Charlton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Micah Mbick n 8	13.8	5.7 4/3
Conor Coventry n 8	87.6	3.1 7/6
J. Edwards n 8	89.8	2.5 6/3
K. Ramsay n 8	90	2.1 7/4
A. Gilbert n 8	38.4	2.1 3/2

Watford

Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Zavier Massiah-Edwards n 5	11.8	4.6 3/0	1.5 1/0	—
I. Louza n 8	87	2.3 7/6	1.2 5/4	—
M. Doumbia n 8	69.4	2.3 7/3	0.8 4/1	—
V. Bayo n 8	28.1	2 4/1	1.2 3/0	—
R. Andrews n 8	31.1	1.8 4/1	0.7 2/0	—

Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
V. Bayo n 8	28.1	2.4 4/1	0 0/0
E. Kayembe n 8	76.3	2.2 6/5	0.6 3/1
G. Chakvetadze n 8	79	1.7 6/4	1 4/2
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	1.4 6/2	0.6 3/1
K. Baah n 8	54	1.3 5/1	0.8 4/0

Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Sissoko n 8	81.8	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
I. Louza n 8	87	0 0/0	0.5 4/0
K. Baah n 8	54	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
M. Doumbia n 8	69.4	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0

Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Zavier Massiah-Edwards n 5	11.8	4.6 2/1
I. Louza n 8	87	3.1 8/6
P. Dwomoh n 8	52.6	2.8 6/3
C. Wiley n 8	87	2.1 8/6
Rocco Vata n 8	74.3	2.1 8/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Charlton		Watford
42%	Possession	58%
1.16	Expected goals (xG)	0.72
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
4	Shots off target	5
3	Blocked shots	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Corners	2
6	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Saves	4
295	Passes	411
76%	Pass accuracy	80%

Charlton player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
T. Kaminski	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
K. Ramsay	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
L. Jones	90	0	3	2	0	2	0	7
A. Bell	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.7
Conor Coventry	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
G. Docherty	90	0	1	0	2	2	Y	6.3
R. Apter	90	0	2	0	4	3	0	7.5
S. Carey	86	0	1	1	2	2	0	6.9
J. Edwards	80	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.5
Tyreece Campbell	80	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
C. Kelman	71	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.9
M. Leaburn sub	19	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
I. Olaofe sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
M. Gillesphey sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
H. Knibbs sub	10	1	1	1	0	1	0	7.6

Watford player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Selvik	90	0	0	0	0	0	8.9
J. Ngakia	90	0	0	2	1	0	6.9
K. Keben	90	0	0	0	2	0	7
M. Bola	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Hector Kyprianou	90	1	0	1	1	Y	6.3
L. Kjerrumgaard	90	0	0	0	3	0	6.9
J. Abankwah	87	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
I. Louza	73	1	1	0	1	0	6.9
M. Sissoko	72	1	0	1	0	0	7.2
M. Doumbia	72	1	0	0	1	0	6.3
K. Baah	63	2	0	2	0	Y	6.2
N. Irankunda sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
J. Grieves sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
T. Ince sub	18	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
E. Kayembe sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Max Alleyne sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Charlton v Watford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

CharltonLWDWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

WatfordLLLLD

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Charlton#19 pos53 pts46 pl-14 GD

Watford#16 pos57 pts46 pl-12 GD

Goals per game

Charlton scored0.96

Watford scored1.15

Charlton conceded1.26

Watford conceded1.41

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Charlton v Watford?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Charlton v Watford was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Charlton and Watford?: Recent form — Charlton 3W 1D 1L; Watford 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.