Ipswich v Derby result

Full-time · Ipswich 2–2 Derby

Championship ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Ipswich · Derby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Ipswich 2–2 Derby — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.5% of 1546 landed (95% range 73.3–77.6%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Ipswich and Derby drew 2–2 in the Championship on Saturday 30 August. Ipswich are winless in their last 13 matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

The goals

Ipswich led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Ipswich: Jacob Greaves (33’) and Jack Clarke (90’ pen); Derby: Carlton Morris (50’ pen) and Rhian Brewster (70’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jack Clarke’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Ipswich out-shot Derby 18 to 10 and created the better chances, 2.91 xG to 1.48 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

L. Doughty showed nine yellow cards — against 6.3 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Ipswich: Kasey McAteer (40’) and George Hirst (54’); Derby: Callum Elder (35’), Ebrima Adams (55’), Lewis Travis (67’), Bobby Clark (75’), Dion Sanderson (85’), David Ozoh (90+14’) and Carlton Morris (90+15’).

What it changes

Ipswich move down from 18th to 19th (shared) (four league matches played).

Derby move down from 19th to 21st (four league matches played).

Derby have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jacob Greaves (Ipswich) 6.6, Rhian Brewster (Derby) 6.6 and Jack Clarke (Ipswich) 6.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Ipswich or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.5% of the time in the last 90 days (1168 of 1546).

Next up

Ipswich next host Nottingham Forest on 23 October 2026.

Derby next travel to Sheffield Utd on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Ipswich: Ipswich v Nottingham Forest, Friday 23 October — the preview. Next for Derby: Sheffield Utd v Derby, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Ipswich 2–2 Derby · Championship
  • Referee: L. Doughty
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Ipswich 3 · draws 1 · Derby 2 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Ipswich 0W 3D 2L · Derby 0W 2D 3L

Ipswich 2–2 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.5 / 3.71
Corners
against 3.13 / 5.43 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3 / 2.71
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 4.86 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.75 / 2.29
Cards
against 2.63 / 1.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
6.29 yellows
Referee · L. Doughty
3.86 home / 2.43 away
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameIpswich for / againstLineDerby for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
4.5 for · 3.13 against n 8
9.5standard
3.71 for · 5.43 against n 7
Shots
13.88 for · 9.38 against n 8
19.5standard
7.14 for · 13.14 against n 7
Shots on target
3 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
2.71 for · 4.86 against n 7
Fouls committed
10.5 for · 13.63 against n 8
21.5standard
12.14 for · 8.29 against n 7
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.63 against n 8
3.5standard
2.29 for · 1.43 against n 7

Referee: L. Doughty — 6.29 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21 fouls over 7 matches (3.86 to the home side, 2.43 to the away side).

Ipswich
Ipswich — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ben Johnson n 861.6
26/2
0.42/0
—
L. Delap n 846.8
1.74/1
1.24/1
—
George Hirst n 860.3
1.54/1
1.75/4
C. Morris
Azor Matusiwa n 875.3
1.34/3
1.34/2
E. Adams
A. Young n 850.9
1.34/2
1.86/2
—
Ipswich — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Enciso n 875.5
2.46/4
0.93/2
George Hirst n 860.3
2.16/4
0.95/0
Jaden Philogene-Bidace n 848.6
2.14/2
1.42/2
S. Szmodics n 847.1
1.96/2
0.52/0
L. Delap n 846.8
1.75/2
1.75/2
Ipswich — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ben Johnson n 861.6
0.42/0
0.21/0
J. Enciso n 875.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
N. Broadhead n 849.9
0.52/0
00/0
Jaden Philogene-Bidace n 848.6
0.51/1
00/0
George Hirst n 860.3
0.42/0
00/0
Ipswich — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Young n 850.9
3.37/4
C. Ogbene n 849.8
2.36/2
Jaden Philogene-Bidace n 848.6
2.15/3
Sam Morsy n 886.6
1.97/5
Jens-Lys Cajuste n 848.8
1.84/3
Derby
Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Adams n 882.3
3.68/6
2.28/6
Azor Matusiwa
K. Goudmijn n 831.4
2.54/2
1.12/1
—
B. Clark n 829.6
1.93/2
0.82/0
—
M. Harness n 870
1.85/3
14/2
—
C. Morris n 882.6
1.56/4
0.53/1
George Hirst
Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Weimann n 833.3
1.73/2
12/1
N. Phillips n 890
1.46/4
0.53/1
J. Ward n 841.8
1.35/0
0.83/0
C. Morris n 882.6
1.26/3
0.54/0
E. Adams n 882.3
0.85/1
0.54/0
Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Elder n 884.4
0.11/0
0.43/0
C. Morris n 882.6
0.54/0
00/0
E. Adams n 882.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
B. Clark n 829.6
0.41/0
00/0
N. Phillips n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Ozoh n 868
4.18/6
J. Rooney n 875
2.96/5
B. Clark n 829.6
2.74/2
M. Clarke n 884.4
2.38/4
R. Nyambe n 875.4
2.26/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
IpswichDerby
69%Possession31%
2.91Expected goals (xG)1.48
18Shots10
5Shots on target2
8Shots off target2
5Blocked shots6
13Shots inside the box6
6Corners3
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards0
0Saves4
477Passes214
82%Pass accuracy59%

Ipswich player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Alex Palmer9000000006.5
A. Young9000004307
Dara O'Shea9000101106.9
Jacob Greaves9010211008
Azor Matusiwa9000100007.6
Jaden Philogene-Bidace9000200006.5
Leif Davis8600212007
Jens-Lys Cajuste7800001106.6
Kasey McAteer68000000Y6
C. Chaplin6800002006.6
George Hirst68001102Y6.3
Jack Clarke sub2210210107.7
S. Szmodics sub2200000006.5
Chuba Akpom sub2200100006.7
Ivan Azón sub2100110006.2
J. Taylor sub1200000107.2

Derby player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Widell Zetterström9000000006.7
D. Sanderson90000002Y6.7
M. Clarke9000001106.6
C. Forsyth9000000106.7
E. Adams90000004Y7.3
C. Morris90101101Y6.9
M. Johnston8900000106.3
C. Elder89000003Y6.6
B. Clark89001012Y6.6
L. Travis82001004Y6.2
R. Brewster8210112107.6
A. Weimann sub1600000006.6
R. Nyambe sub1200000006.3
D. Batth sub1100000006.3
D. Ozoh sub8000000Y5.9
K. Jackson sub800000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Ipswich v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
IpswichLDDDL
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
DerbyLDLDL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Ipswich 3 · 1 draw · Derby 2 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2023-04-01 Derby 0–2 Ipswich
  • 2022-10-21 Ipswich 1–0 Derby
  • 2019-02-13 Ipswich 1–1 Derby
  • 2018-08-21 Derby 2–0 Ipswich
  • 2017-12-30 Ipswich 1–2 Derby
  • 2017-11-28 Derby 0–1 Ipswich
League standing · 2025/26
Ipswich#2 pos84 pts46 pl+33 GD
Derby#8 pos69 pts46 pl+8 GD
Goals per game
Ipswich scored1.74
Derby scored1.46
Ipswich conceded1.02
Derby conceded1.28

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Ipswich v Derby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Ipswich v Derby was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Derby?
In their last 6 meetings, Ipswich won 3, Derby won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Ipswich and Derby?
Recent form — Ipswich 0W 3D 2L; Derby 0W 2D 3L.

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