Stoke City v Bristol City prediction

Championship · · Bet365 Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Stoke City · Bristol City · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Stoke City v Bristol City, Championship on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Stoke City host Bristol City in the Championship on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 15:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Stoke City or Bristol City (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Stoke City have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Stoke City have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.25. Stoke City have scored 18 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Stoke City have conceded 16 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Seven of Bristol City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Bristol City’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Bristol City have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.71 and conceding 1.86. Bristol City have scored 12 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Bristol City have conceded 15 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Bristol City are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Stoke City (sixth) and Bristol City (16th) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Stoke City the stronger side, 140 rating points above Bristol City (Stoke City 1528, Bristol City 1388, after at least 379 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City.

Team news

Predicted Stoke City XI (3-4-3): V. Johansson, L. Graham, B. Wilmot, M. Talovierov, E. Galbraith, E. Soumaré, B. Johnson, E. Bocat, L. Cissé, J. McGlynn, G. Hirst — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ethan Galbraith (3.9 per match over 13 appearances, three goals and three assists) and Eric-Junior Bocat (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Stoke City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Stoke City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ethan Galbraith averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1467 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Eric-Junior Bocat averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 936 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Bristol City XI (4-2-3-1): S. Tickle, R. Cardines, L. Eissat, C. Pring, G. Tanner, J. Knight, S. Twine, Y. Hirakawa, G. Yah, J. Wallace, D. Ballard — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Rio Cardines (4.4 per match over 11 appearances, six assists) and Robert Dickie (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Bristol City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bristol City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Rio Cardines averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 1224 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. Robert Dickie averages 1.1 tackles per 90 over 711 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Championship · Bet365 Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Stoke City 3 · draws 1 · Bristol City 2 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Stoke City 4W 0D 1L · Bristol City 1W 1D 3L

Stoke City v Bristol City (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 6
Corners
against 5.13 / 4.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 2.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameStoke City for / againstLineBristol City for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
1 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
6 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
11.88 for · 17 against n 8
19.5standard
15.38 for · 10.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.88 for · 2.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 11 against n 8
21.5standard
11.75 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1 for · 2.25 against n 8
Stoke City
Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Boženík n 836.3
4.76/4
1.63/2
—
S. Gallagher n 852.8
2.86/5
0.63/0
—
B. Lawal n 749.1
2.15/2
0.52/0
—
Luca Bombino n 840.3
25/2
2.85/3
—
George Hirst n 839.4
26/1
0.31/0
—
Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Boženík n 836.3
2.55/3
0.62/0
George Hirst n 839.4
24/3
0.92/1
S. Gallagher n 852.8
1.95/2
1.13/1
L. Cissé n 860.5
1.75/2
0.42/0
J. McGlynn n 865.6
1.26/1
0.74/0
Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Gallagher n 852.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
George Hirst n 839.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
R. Boženík n 836.3
0.31/0
0.31/0
E. Bocat n 872.3
0.21/0
0.31/1
J. McGlynn n 865.6
0.32/0
0.21/0
Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luca Bombino n 840.3
8.77/7
B. Pearson n 841.5
3.36/3
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 881
2.98/6
S. Gallagher n 852.8
2.16/2
Luke Graham n 880
1.76/4
Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 890
3.46/5
Bristol City
Bristol City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Adebayo n 816.6
4.72/2
1.42/0
—
L. Tolaj n 869.1
2.98/5
2.16/4
—
Sam Greenwood n 836.8
2.45/1
3.46/4
—
J. Knight n 878
2.27/6
1.25/3
—
Lisav Naif Eissat n 873.4
2.16/4
0.53/0
—
Bristol City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Tolaj n 869.1
3.48/7
0.84/1
D. Ballard n 859
3.18/5
1.14/2
T. Horvat n 832.5
2.14/2
13/0
Y. Hirakawa n 861.9
27/2
1.35/2
S. Bell n 826.6
1.74/0
1.33/0
Bristol City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Bell n 826.6
1.33/0
00/0
Rio Cardines n 879.1
00/0
0.64/0
L. Tolaj n 869.1
0.32/0
0.21/0
Lisav Naif Eissat n 873.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
D. Ballard n 859
0.42/0
00/0
Bristol City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. McNally n 887.9
2.67/6
B. De Keersmaecker n 856.5
2.48/4
J. Wallace n 849.5
25/3
G. Tanner n 871.3
1.96/3
C. Pring n 853.3
1.95/2
Bristol City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Tickle n 890
1.64/2

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Stoke City v Bristol City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Stoke CityWWWLW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Bristol CityLWDLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Stoke City 3 · 1 draw · Bristol City 2 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-02 Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City
  • 2025-11-01 Stoke City 5–1 Bristol City
  • 2025-02-12 Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City
  • 2024-10-22 Stoke City 2–2 Bristol City
  • 2024-05-04 Stoke City 4–0 Bristol City
  • 2023-09-30 Bristol City 2–3 Stoke City
League standing · 2026/27
Stoke City#6 pos19 pts11 pl+2 GD
Bristol City#16 pos14 pts11 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Stoke City scored1.64
Bristol City scored1.09
Stoke City conceded1.45
Bristol City conceded1.36

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Stoke City v Bristol City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Stoke City v Bristol City is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Bristol City?
In their last 6 meetings, Stoke City won 3, Bristol City won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Stoke City and Bristol City?
Recent form — Stoke City 4W 0D 1L; Bristol City 1W 1D 3L.

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