Stoke City v Middlesbrough prediction

The match

Stoke City host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Tuesday 13 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Stoke City or Middlesbrough (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Stoke City have scored in 11 consecutive matches. Stoke City are unbeaten in their last six matches.

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last four matches.

Form and the table

Nine of Stoke City’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Stoke City’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Stoke City have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.25. Stoke City have scored 15 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Stoke City have conceded 13 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Middlesbrough’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Middlesbrough have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.50. Middlesbrough have scored 17 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Middlesbrough have conceded 12 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Stoke City (fourth) and Middlesbrough (second) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Middlesbrough the stronger side, 149 rating points above Stoke City (Middlesbrough 1677, Stoke City 1528, after at least 377 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Stoke City. The most recent meeting, on 21 January 2026, finished Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough.

Team news

Stoke City have three names on the availability list: A. Cresswell (out, Knee Injury), M. Talovierov (out, Red Card) and S. Ingelsson (out, Muscle Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. Predicted Stoke City XI (3-4-3): V. Johansson, B. Wilmot, L. Graham, L. Bombino, E. Galbraith, E. Soumaré, B. Johnson, E. Bocat, G. Hirst, L. Cissé, J. McGlynn — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Ethan Galbraith (4.0 per match over 11 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Eric-Junior Bocat (3.8 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Stoke City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Stoke City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ethan Galbraith averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1287 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Eric-Junior Bocat averages 1.0 key passes per 90 over 819 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Middlesbrough have one name on the availability list: A. Jones (out, Calf Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-12. Predicted Middlesbrough XI (3-4-2-1): R. Vítek, C. Brittain, A. Malanda, N. Borges, A. Morris, S. Berhalter, R. McGree, A. Cozier-Duberry, M. Peart-Harris, T. Conway, W. Lankshear — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Amario Cozier-Duberry (5.5 per match over five appearances, two goals and one assist) and Aidan Morris (4.8 per match over 10 appearances, one goal) have been Middlesbrough’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Middlesbrough (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amario Cozier-Duberry averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 431 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last six appearances. Aidan Morris averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 880 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.