Stoke City v Southampton prediction

Championship · · Bet365 Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Stoke City · Southampton · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Stoke City v Southampton, Championship on Wed, 03 Mar 2027 19:45 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Stoke City host Southampton in the Championship on Wednesday 3 March (kick-off 19:45 UK).

The key numbers

Stoke City have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Stoke City’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Stoke City have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.25. Stoke City have scored 18 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Stoke City have conceded 16 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Eight of Southampton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Southampton’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Southampton have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.86. Southampton have scored 21 goals, the third-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Southampton have conceded 10 goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Southampton are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Southampton have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Stoke City (sixth) and Southampton (eighth) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Southampton the stronger side, 189 rating points above Stoke City (Southampton 1717, Stoke City 1528, after at least 108 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 22 August 2026, finished Southampton 3–1 Stoke City.

Team news

Predicted Stoke City XI (3-4-3): V. Johansson, L. Graham, B. Wilmot, M. Talovierov, E. Galbraith, E. Soumaré, B. Johnson, E. Bocat, L. Cissé, J. McGlynn, G. Hirst — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ethan Galbraith (4.0 per match over 13 appearances, three goals and three assists) and Eric-Junior Bocat (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Stoke City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Stoke City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ethan Galbraith averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1467 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Eric-Junior Bocat averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 936 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Southampton XI (4-2-3-1): D. Peretz, K. Schlotterbeck, J. Bree, R. Manning, N. Wood, J. Ward-Prowse, F. Azaz, F. Downes, L. Scienza, K. Matsuki, C. Larin — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Finn Azaz (4.1 per match over 13 appearances, three goals and six assists) and Keven Schlotterbeck (4.0 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Southampton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Southampton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Finn Azaz averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 1204 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Keven Schlotterbeck averages 1.1 tackles per 90 over 897 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Championship · Bet365 Stadium
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Stoke City 2 · draws 0 · Southampton 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Stoke City 4W 0D 1L · Southampton 3W 1D 1L

Stoke City v Southampton (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.5
Goals
against 0.88 / 0.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 4.38
Corners
against 5 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameStoke City for / againstLineSouthampton for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
1.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
11.88 for · 17 against n 8
19.5standard
13.88 for · 14.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 11 against n 8
21.5standard
8.63 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.38 against n 8
Stoke City
Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Boženík n 836.3
4.76/4
1.63/2
—
S. Gallagher n 852.8
2.86/5
0.63/0
—
B. Lawal n 749.1
2.15/2
0.52/0
—
Luca Bombino n 840.3
25/2
2.85/3
—
George Hirst n 839.4
26/1
0.31/0
—
Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Boženík n 836.3
2.55/3
0.62/0
S. Gallagher n 852.8
1.95/2
1.13/1
L. Cissé n 860.5
1.75/2
0.42/0
George Hirst n 839.4
1.74/2
0.92/1
J. McGlynn n 865.6
1.26/1
0.74/0
Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Gallagher n 852.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
George Hirst n 839.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
R. Boženík n 836.3
0.31/0
0.31/0
E. Bocat n 872.3
0.21/0
0.31/1
J. McGlynn n 865.6
0.32/0
0.21/0
Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luca Bombino n 840.3
8.77/7
B. Pearson n 841.5
3.36/3
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 881
2.98/6
S. Gallagher n 852.8
2.16/2
Luke Graham n 880
1.76/4
Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 890
3.46/5
Southampton
Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Cyle Larin n 860.3
2.67/5
1.14/1
—
Caspar Jander n 873
2.36/4
1.15/1
—
Z. Abbott n 871.3
2.16/4
0.21/0
—
D. Mubama n 824.8
1.83/1
2.74/1
—
K. Matsuki n 862
1.55/2
1.15/1
—
Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Mubama n 824.8
3.65/3
0.51/0
Cyle Larin n 860.3
3.28/3
1.15/1
Samuel Edozie n 827.5
23/2
1.63/1
Leo Scienza n 870.1
1.85/4
15/1
K. Matsuki n 862
1.86/4
1.35/2
Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Cyle Larin n 860.3
0.62/1
0.21/0
Finn Azaz n 889.8
0.32/0
0.42/1
K. Matsuki n 862
0.53/0
0.21/0
Leo Scienza n 870.1
0.32/0
0.32/0
D. Mubama n 824.8
00/0
0.51/0
Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Caspar Jander n 873
5.28/7
F. Downes n 870.3
2.78/4
Welington n 855.9
2.26/2
Nathan Wood n 880
1.57/3
K. Matsuki n 862
1.33/3
Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 890
2.96/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Stoke City v Southampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Stoke CityWWWLW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
SouthamptonWLWWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Stoke City 2 · 0 draws · Southampton 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-08-22 Southampton 3–1 Stoke City
  • 2026-01-31 Stoke City 0–2 Southampton
  • 2025-08-23 Southampton 1–2 Stoke City
  • 2024-10-29 Southampton 3–2 Stoke City
  • 2024-04-27 Southampton 0–1 Stoke City
  • 2023-10-03 Stoke City 0–1 Southampton
League standing · 2026/27
Stoke City#6 pos19 pts11 pl+2 GD
Southampton#8 pos17 pts11 pl+11 GD
Goals per game
Stoke City scored1.64
Southampton scored1.91
Stoke City conceded1.45
Southampton conceded0.91

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Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Southampton?
In their last 6 meetings, Stoke City won 2, Southampton won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Stoke City and Southampton?
Recent form — Stoke City 4W 0D 1L; Southampton 3W 1D 1L.

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