Covadonga v Valladolid prediction

Copa del Rey ·

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TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Covadonga v Valladolid, Copa del Rey on Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.1% of 622 landed (95% range 62.3–69.7%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Covadonga host Valladolid in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday 28 October (kick-off 19:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Valladolid have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Seven of Valladolid’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Valladolid’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Valladolid have no wins, three draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.38 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.75.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, Adrian Arnuncio (4.9 per match over seven appearances, four goals and one assist) and Iván Alejo (4.2 per match over 10 appearances) have been Valladolid’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Valladolid (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Adrian Arnuncio averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 455 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances. Iván Alejo averages 4.7 tackles per 90 over 825 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Copa del Rey
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Covadonga 0W 0D 1L · Valladolid 2W 2D 1L

Covadonga v Valladolid (Copa del Rey): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 23 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

19
Markets analysed

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Covadonga v Valladolid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CovadongaL
Last 1: 0W 0D 1L · 1 scored / 3 conceded per game
ValladolidDWDWL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Goals per game
Covadonga scored1
Valladolid scored2.6
Covadonga conceded3
Valladolid conceded1.4

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 19 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
Pro
Win probability & value
Pro
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Covadonga v Valladolid?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Covadonga v Valladolid is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Covadonga and Valladolid?
Recent form — Covadonga 0W 0D 1L; Valladolid 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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