Palermo v Mantova result

Full-time · Palermo 5–2 Mantova

Coppa Italia · · Stadio Danilo Martelli

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Palermo · Mantova

The model’s pre-match pick

Palermo 5–2 Mantova — Palermo won this Coppa Italia match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.25 at William Hill
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Palermo beat Mantova 5–2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli in the Coppa Italia on Thursday 3 September.

Palermo have won their last five matches.

The goals

Palermo led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Palermo: Gabriel Strefezza (9’, assisted by C. Gomes), A. Palumbo (45’ pen), J. Pohjanpalo (70’, assisted by D. Johnsen; 90’, assisted by D. Vavassori) and D. Johnsen (89’, assisted by J. Segre); Mantova: F. Ruocco (52’) and Rachid Kouda (55’, assisted by R. Ilie).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with J. Pohjanpalo’s goal on 70 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Palermo 0.00, Mantova 0.00, from 13 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Di Marco showed three yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Palermo: A. Gabrielloni (58’); Mantova: R. Ilie (43’) and F. Ruocco (62’).

What it changes

Palermo have scored in five consecutive matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, D. Johnsen (Palermo) 8.7, J. Pohjanpalo (Palermo) 8.4 and D. Vavassori (Palermo) 7.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Palermo or Mantova (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3334 of 4315).

Next up

Palermo next host Carrarese on 24 October 2026.

Mantova next travel to Virtus Entella on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Palermo: Palermo v Carrarese, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Mantova: Virtus Entella v Mantova, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Palermo 5–2 Mantova · Coppa Italia
  • Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli · Mantova
  • Referee: D. Di Marco
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Palermo 1 · draws 3 · Mantova 0 · 2.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Palermo 4W 0D 1L · Mantova 4W 0D 1L

Palermo 5–2 Mantova (Coppa Italia): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4 / 3
Corners
against 5.13 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 5.13 / 3.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.63 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gamePalermo for / againstLineMantova for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.75our book
1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
4 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
3 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
14.5 for · 13.75 against n 8
19.5standard
13.75 for · 12.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.13 for · 5.13 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
16.13 for · 11 against n 8
21.5standard
14.25 for · 16 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: D. Di Marco.

Palermo
Palermo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Gyasi n 828.4
3.25/2
0.81/1
—
A. Vasic n 843.1
2.95/5
2.36/3
—
F. Ranocchia n 881.4
2.47/5
1.26/3
—
S. Giovane n 823.6
2.44/1
0.51/0
—
Gabriel Strefezza n 854
2.37/3
2.37/4
—
Palermo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Ranocchia n 881.4
1.96/4
14/3
A. Palumbo n 875.5
1.96/5
0.94/1
D. Johnsen n 859.1
1.95/4
1.15/1
Gabriel Strefezza n 854
1.95/1
0.83/1
A. Vasic n 843.1
1.84/2
0.31/0
Palermo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Johnsen n 859.1
0.63/0
0.42/0
Hernani n 865.3
0.21/0
0.32/0
J. Pohjanpalo n 865
0.32/0
0.21/0
D. Vavassori n 448.3
0.51/0
00/0
F. Ranocchia n 881.4
0.11/0
0.32/0
Palermo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
P. Peda n 851.9
35/3
Hernani n 865.3
2.67/4
M. Bani n 886
2.17/4
F. Ranocchia n 881.4
1.96/5
Gabriel Strefezza n 854
1.94/2
Palermo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Fortin n 889.4
4.48/8
J. Joronen n 865.8
3.44/4
Mantova
Mantova — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Radaelli n 866.3
3.77/6
1.57/2
—
F. Paoletti n 824.1
2.85/1
00/0
—
C. Falletti n 821.3
2.13/1
1.62/1
—
Bodin Tomašević n 361.3
22/1
0.51/0
—
R. Kouda n 866.8
1.96/3
2.54/4
—
Mantova — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Marras n 856.8
3.66/6
2.26/4
N. Buso n 826.5
35/2
1.73/1
E. Gliozzi n 861.3
2.98/7
1.78/1
L. Mancuso n 865.5
2.78/3
1.76/2
F. Ruocco n 870.4
1.86/3
14/1
Mantova — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Bragantini n 858.6
0.63/0
0.41/1
T. Marras n 856.8
0.63/0
0.21/0
E. Gliozzi n 861.3
0.21/0
0.42/0
S. Trimboli n 890
0.11/0
0.42/1
F. Ruocco n 870.4
0.53/0
00/0
Mantova — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Radaelli n 866.3
2.96/5
Bodin Tomašević n 361.3
2.43/1
A. Castellini n 888.1
2.38/5
Jonathan Silva n 844.3
2.38/1
F. Paoletti n 824.1
2.32/1
Mantova — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
F. Bardi n 890
2.44/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
PalermoMantova
44%Possession56%
13Shots13
9Shots on target8
3Shots off target5
1Blocked shots0
8Shots inside the box7
3Corners2
2Offsides6
9Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
6Saves4
338Passes440
76%Pass accuracy83%

Palermo player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
F. Barba9000000107
D. Vavassori9001221108
N. Estévez9000111306.3
T. Cassandro9000000606.6
A. Bozzolan9000001506.9
M. Fortin9000000007.2
C. Gomes7301113006.9
A. Palumbo6110210106.9
G. Magnani6100000206.2
A. Gabrielloni61000001Y6.5
Gabriel Strefezza4510111107.7
D. Johnsen sub4511112208.9
J. Pohjanpalo sub2920220008.9
P. Peda sub2900000107
Hernani sub2900200106.7
J. Segre sub1701001107.2

Mantova player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Ilie90011022Y6.7
L. Ignacchiti9000110306.6
S. Cella9000110305.9
A. Castellini9000111105.3
F. Benaissa-Yahia9000000306.7
F. Bardi9000000005.7
T. Del Lungo7700210005.6
E. Gliozzi6000311006.7
Federico Chinetti4500101006.5
I. Cajazzo4500001006.2
S. Trimboli1400000005.9
R. Kouda sub7610111107.6
F. Ruocco sub45101111Y6.9
Jonathan Silva sub4500000506.7
V. Vlahović sub3000000006.5
Bodin Tomašević sub1300110005.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Palermo v Mantova — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
PalermoLWWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
MantovaWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Palermo 1 · 3 draws · Mantova 0 · 2.25 goals/game
  • 2026-03-04 Palermo 2–1 Mantova
  • 2026-01-11 Mantova 1–1 Palermo
  • 2025-02-16 Palermo 2–2 Mantova
  • 2024-10-30 Mantova 0–0 Palermo
Goals per game
Palermo scored1.6
Mantova scored2
Palermo conceded1
Mantova conceded1.8

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Palermo vs Mantova?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Palermo v Mantova was Home or Away (best price 1.25 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
In their last 4 meetings, Palermo won 1, Mantova won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Palermo and Mantova?
Recent form — Palermo 4W 0D 1L; Mantova 4W 0D 1L.

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