Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce prediction

Ekstraklasa · · Enea Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lech Poznan · Korona Kielce · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce, Ekstraklasa on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 16:30 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.53 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lech Poznan host Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 16:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

13 of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%).

Three of Korona Kielce’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (20%).

Form and the table

Both teams scored in seven of Lech Poznan’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Lech Poznan have six wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches — 2.25 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 1.13. Lech Poznan have scored 21 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Lech Poznan have conceded eight goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Both teams scored in nine of Korona Kielce’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Korona Kielce have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.14. Korona Kielce have scored 12 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Korona Kielce have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Lech Poznan (third) and Korona Kielce (eighth) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Lech Poznan the stronger side, 255 rating points above Korona Kielce (Lech Poznan 1828, Korona Kielce 1574, after at least 220 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Korona Kielce. The most recent meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech Poznan.

Team news

Predicted Lech Poznan XI (4-4-2): M. Lis, W. Mońka, J. Pereira, M. Gurgul, M. Skrzypczak, R. Murawski, P. Wålemark, P. Rodríguez, A. Sayyad, Y. Agnero, M. Ishak — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pablo Rodríguez (5.2 per match over 13 appearances, four goals and three assists) and P. Wålemark (4.5 per match over 13 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Lech Poznan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lech Poznan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pablo Rodríguez averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 956 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. P. Wålemark averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 970 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Korona Kielce XI (4-2-3-1): X. Dziekoński, S. Rubežić, W. Długosz, A. Mosor, M. Pięczek, K. Jakubczyk, P. Hellebrand, M. Remacle, O. Lingr, M. Ameyaw, M. Stępiński — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, W. Długosz (5.7 per match over 10 appearances, five assists) and M. Stępiński (4.3 per match over 10 appearances, six goals) have been Korona Kielce’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Korona Kielce (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), W. Długosz averages 3.2 tackles per 90 over 885 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. M. Stępiński averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 766 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Ekstraklasa · Enea Stadion
  • Referee: Lukasz Kuzma
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lech Poznan 4 · draws 1 · Korona Kielce 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lech Poznan 2W 0D 3L · Korona Kielce 2W 1D 2L

TACTIX runs Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce (Ekstraklasa) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.13 / 4.5
Corners
against 4.5 / 6.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 3.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 1.38
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLech Poznan for / againstLineKorona Kielce for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.25our book
1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.5 for · 6.38 against n 8
Shots
17 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
13.75 for · 14.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.63 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
4.88 for · 3.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.5 for · 13.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.75 for · 14.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Gumny n 833.6
2.74/2
0.31/0
—
R. Murawski n 882.8
2.67/6
1.86/4
—
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
2.38/2
1.66/3
—
L. Bengtsson n 837.9
1.85/1
00/0
—
M. Ishak n 851.1
1.35/1
1.35/1
—
Lech Poznan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Ishak n 851.1
3.77/6
1.85/3
Y. Agnero n 833.9
3.35/2
0.72/0
L. Palma n 855.8
3.26/6
1.44/2
P. Wålemark n 857.3
2.66/4
2.26/4
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
2.37/3
0.83/2
Lech Poznan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Wålemark n 857.3
0.82/2
0.42/0
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
0.95/0
00/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
0.63/1
0.21/0
M. Ishak n 851.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
D. Håkans n 834.8
00/0
0.62/0
Lech Poznan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Murawski n 882.8
2.67/4
Joel Pereira n 886.4
2.16/4
Pablo Rodríguez n 873.4
1.86/4
Allahyar Sayyad n 863.4
1.87/3
Gustav Berggren n 848.3
1.43/1
Lech Poznan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Lis n 890
36/3
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Daniel Bak n 813.8
5.74/3
1.62/0
—
N. Barczak n 542.8
2.93/2
0.81/1
—
M. Faßbender n 848.8
2.86/4
0.52/0
—
Nono n 835.9
2.85/2
2.85/3
—
M. Stępiński n 876.8
2.15/5
1.25/3
—
Korona Kielce — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Daniel Bak n 813.8
3.33/1
00/0
M. Faßbender n 848.8
37/2
2.16/2
M. Stępiński n 876.8
2.57/6
1.36/2
Ondrej Lingr n 867.5
1.55/3
0.73/1
M. Ameyaw n 872.1
1.46/2
0.83/1
Korona Kielce — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Stępiński n 876.8
0.74/1
00/0
M. Faßbender n 848.8
0.72/1
00/0
D. Błanik n 863.5
0.42/0
0.21/0
W. Długosz n 887.4
00/0
0.53/1
C. Mena n 871.4
0.21/0
0.32/0
Korona Kielce — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
W. Długosz n 887.4
3.58/8
Nono n 835.9
2.86/2
N. Barczak n 542.8
2.53/2
Hubert Zwoźny n 868.9
2.36/4
Kamil Jakubczyk n 890
26/4
Korona Kielce — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
X. Dziekoński n 890
2.66/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Lech PoznanLLWWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Korona KielceDWLWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lech Poznan 4 · 1 draw · Korona Kielce 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-02-22 Korona Kielce 1–2 Lech Poznan
  • 2025-08-16 Lech Poznan 1–1 Korona Kielce
  • 2025-04-05 Lech Poznan 2–0 Korona Kielce
  • 2024-09-29 Korona Kielce 2–3 Lech Poznan
  • 2024-05-25 Lech Poznan 1–2 Korona Kielce
  • 2023-12-02 Korona Kielce 0–1 Lech Poznan
League standing · 2026/27
Lech Poznan#3 pos22 pts9 pl+13 GD
Korona Kielce#8 pos15 pts10 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Lech Poznan scored2.33
Korona Kielce scored1.2
Lech Poznan conceded0.89
Korona Kielce conceded1.2

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.53 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce?
In their last 6 meetings, Lech Poznan won 4, Korona Kielce won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce?
Recent form — Lech Poznan 2W 0D 3L; Korona Kielce 2W 1D 2L.

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