Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock prediction

J1 League · · City Light Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Fagiano Okayama · Mito Hollyhock

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 195 landed (95% range 71.1–82.7%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Fagiano Okayama host Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Fagiano Okayama to win.

The key numbers

Fagiano Okayama have scored in 12 consecutive matches.

Mito Hollyhock are winless in their last 11 matches.

Form and the table

Seven of Fagiano Okayama’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Fagiano Okayama’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Fagiano Okayama have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.29. Fagiano Okayama have scored 12 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Fagiano Okayama have conceded 12 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Mito Hollyhock’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Mito Hollyhock’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Mito Hollyhock have no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches — 0.33 points per game, scoring 0.67 and conceding 2.33. Mito Hollyhock have scored 12 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Mito Hollyhock have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Fagiano Okayama (ninth) and Mito Hollyhock (13th) are four points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Fagiano Okayama the stronger side, 387 rating points above Mito Hollyhock (Fagiano Okayama 1659, Mito Hollyhock 1272, after at least 22 rated matches each).

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · City Light Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Fagiano Okayama 3W 1D 1L · Mito Hollyhock 0W 0D 5L

As of 17 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 0.38
Goals
against 0.88 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 3.75
Corners
against 4.63 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 2.63
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 4.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 1.25
Cards
against 1 / 0.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameFagiano Okayama for / againstLineMito Hollyhock for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
0.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
13.38 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
9.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
4.88 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
2.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 7.38 against n 8
21.5standard
9.38 for · 9 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 0.63 against n 8
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Léo Gaúcho n 828.6
2.84/3
0.41/0
—
Lucão n 845
2.56/3
0.83/0
—
Noah Kenshin Browne n 826.9
2.55/1
1.73/1
—
Werik Popó n 851.6
2.47/2
25/2
—
Kosei Ogura n 883.8
2.17/6
0.74/1
—
Fagiano Okayama — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Gaúcho n 828.6
3.95/3
2.44/1
Lucão n 845
2.86/3
12/1
Werik Popó n 851.6
26/2
1.14/1
Kota Kawano n 829
1.95/0
0.82/0
Noah Kenshin Browne n 826.9
1.73/1
0.41/0
Fagiano Okayama — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Léo Gaúcho n 828.6
1.63/1
00/0
Lucão n 845
0.31/0
0.52/0
Werik Popó n 851.6
0.21/0
0.42/0
Kosuke Shirai n 876.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
Y. Kamiya n 840.3
00/0
0.62/0
Fagiano Okayama — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Noah Kenshin Browne n 826.9
3.84/3
Kosuke Shirai n 876.9
2.88/5
R. Sueyoshi n 834.1
2.64/2
Haruka Motoyama n 847.6
2.44/2
Kosei Ogura n 883.8
1.78/3
Fagiano Okayama — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Hamada n 890
3.98/6
Lennart Moser n 891.1
2.67/4
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Patryck n 820.9
3.25/1
1.12/0
—
R. Nemoto n 836.9
2.14/2
2.14/2
—
A. Watanabe n 870.5
1.86/2
1.37/1
—
T. Mase n 886
1.67/4
16/2
—
R. Ieizumi n 549.4
1.51/1
2.62/2
—
Mito Hollyhock — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Patryck n 820.9
3.87/0
2.75/0
Matheus Leiria n 859.4
1.96/2
1.13/2
K. Tada n 842.8
1.84/2
1.34/1
Y. Torikai n 859.5
1.75/3
0.63/0
K. Taniguchi n 852.3
1.76/2
0.63/0
Mito Hollyhock — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Patryck n 820.9
0.51/0
00/0
Danilo Cardoso n 874.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
A. Watanabe n 870.5
0.32/0
00/0
C. Kato n 870.8
0.21/0
00/0
M. Arai n 853.6
00/0
0.21/0
Mito Hollyhock — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Y. Yamashita n 731.9
2.42/2
K. Osaki n 881.5
2.38/4
T. Semba n 871.1
2.25/4
Y. Kimoto n 870
1.97/4
S. Omori n 874.9
1.88/3
Mito Hollyhock — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Słowik n 890
3.26/4
K. Nishikawa n 890.8
2.58/3

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Fagiano OkayamaWWLDW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Mito HollyhockLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Fagiano Okayama#9 pos13 pts9 pl0 GD
Mito Hollyhock#13 pos9 pts9 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Fagiano Okayama scored1.33
Mito Hollyhock scored1.33
Fagiano Okayama conceded1.33
Mito Hollyhock conceded1.44

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock is Home win.
What is the recent form of Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock?
Recent form — Fagiano Okayama 3W 1D 1L; Mito Hollyhock 0W 0D 5L.

Today’s boards

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