FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock prediction

J1 League · · Ajinomoto Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Tokyo · Mito Hollyhock

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock, J1 League on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 07:00 GMT.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78.1% of 215 landed (95% range 72.1–83.1%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 141 of 207 times (68.1%), against an average rating of 68.3%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Tokyo host Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 07:00 UK); the model’s free pick is FC Tokyo to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Mito Hollyhock are winless in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of FC Tokyo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in seven of FC Tokyo’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, FC Tokyo have three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.50. FC Tokyo have scored 17 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). FC Tokyo have conceded eight goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Seven of Mito Hollyhock’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Mito Hollyhock’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Mito Hollyhock have no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.33 points per game, scoring 0.67 and conceding 2.33. Mito Hollyhock have scored 12 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Mito Hollyhock have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

FC Tokyo (fourth) and Mito Hollyhock (13th) are 11 points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Tokyo the stronger side, 479 rating points above Mito Hollyhock (FC Tokyo 1694, Mito Hollyhock 1216, after at least 22 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 April 2026, finished FC Tokyo 5–2 Mito Hollyhock.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · Ajinomoto Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): FC Tokyo 1 · draws 1 · Mito Hollyhock 0 · 4.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: FC Tokyo 1W 2D 2L · Mito Hollyhock 0W 0D 5L

FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock (J1 League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 0.38
Goals
against 1.25 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
7 / 3.75
Corners
against 2.88 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 2.63
Shots on target
against 2.5 / 4.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 1.25
Cards
against 1.13 / 0.63 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameFC Tokyo for / againstLineMito Hollyhock for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
0.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
7 for · 2.88 against n 8
9.5standard
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
18.25 for · 10.13 against n 8
19.5standard
9.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.25 for · 2.5 against n 8
8.5standard
2.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
9.38 for · 9 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 0.63 against n 8
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Nakagawa n 825
2.35/0
0.51/0
—
Kyota Tokiwa n 867.3
2.28/4
1.37/1
—
Marcelo Ryan n 868.4
26/4
0.85/0
—
K. Hashimoto n 876.1
1.67/2
0.11/0
—
Y. Nagatomo n 850.8
1.34/2
0.41/1
—
FC Tokyo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Marcelo Ryan n 868.4
3.88/7
1.67/1
F. Yamada n 813.6
3.33/1
2.53/0
M. Nagakura n 871.6
2.46/3
1.36/1
K. Sato n 869.4
2.17/5
16/0
L. Nozawa n 827.3
2.14/1
0.82/0
FC Tokyo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Tawaratsumida n 833.9
0.31/0
0.72/0
L. Nozawa n 827.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
F. Yamada n 813.6
00/0
0.81/0
M. Nagakura n 871.6
0.53/0
0.21/0
T. Nakagawa n 825
00/0
0.51/0
FC Tokyo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Hashimoto n 878.5
38/6
K. Hashimoto n 876.1
2.46/3
T. Nakagawa n 825
2.32/1
S. Muroya n 889.9
1.87/5
A. Scholz n 887.5
1.87/4
FC Tokyo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
H. Tanaka n 490
2.33/3
Kim Seung-Gyu n 885
2.15/4
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Patryck n 820.9
3.25/1
1.12/0
—
A. Watanabe n 870.5
1.86/2
1.37/1
—
R. Nemoto n 836.9
1.84/2
2.14/2
—
T. Mase n 885.9
1.67/4
16/2
—
Danilo Cardoso n 874.5
1.46/2
0.64/0
—
Mito Hollyhock — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Patryck n 820.9
3.87/0
2.75/0
Matheus Leiria n 859.4
1.96/2
1.13/2
K. Tada n 842.8
1.84/2
1.34/1
Y. Torikai n 859.5
1.75/3
0.63/0
K. Taniguchi n 852.1
1.55/2
0.63/0
Mito Hollyhock — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Patryck n 820.9
0.51/0
00/0
Danilo Cardoso n 874.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
A. Watanabe n 870.5
0.32/0
00/0
C. Kato n 870.5
0.21/0
00/0
M. Arai n 853.6
00/0
0.21/0
Mito Hollyhock — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Y. Yamashita n 828
2.42/2
K. Osaki n 881.5
2.28/3
T. Semba n 871.1
2.25/4
Y. Kimoto n 870
1.97/4
S. Omori n 874.8
1.88/3
Mito Hollyhock — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Słowik n 890
3.26/4
K. Nishikawa n 890.8
2.58/3

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FC TokyoDLDLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Mito HollyhockLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
FC Tokyo 1 · 1 draw · Mito Hollyhock 0 · 4.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-24 FC Tokyo 5–2 Mito Hollyhock
  • 2026-03-14 Mito Hollyhock 1–1 FC Tokyo
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
FC Tokyo#4 pos20 pts9 pl+9 GD
Mito Hollyhock#13 pos9 pts9 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
FC Tokyo scored1.89
Mito Hollyhock scored1.33
FC Tokyo conceded0.89
Mito Hollyhock conceded1.44

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock?
TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Tokyo and Mito Hollyhock?
In their last 2 meetings, FC Tokyo won 1, Mito Hollyhock won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FC Tokyo and Mito Hollyhock?
Recent form — FC Tokyo 1W 2D 2L; Mito Hollyhock 0W 0D 5L.

Today’s boards

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