Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia prediction

J1 League · · IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Shimizu S-pulse · Machida Zelvia

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Shimizu S-pulse host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Shimizu S-pulse or Machida Zelvia (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 11 matches. Machida Zelvia have scored in six consecutive matches. Three of Machida Zelvia’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (20%).

Form and the table

Eight of Shimizu S-pulse’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Shimizu S-pulse’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Shimizu S-pulse have one win, four draws and three defeats in their last 8 home matches — 0.88 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.50. Shimizu S-pulse have scored eight goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Shimizu S-pulse have conceded nine goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Both teams scored in five of Machida Zelvia’s last 15 results (33%). Away from home, Machida Zelvia have two wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 7 away matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.00. Machida Zelvia have scored 22 goals, the most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Machida Zelvia have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Shimizu S-pulse (10th) and Machida Zelvia (third) are seven points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Machida Zelvia the stronger side, 280 rating points above Shimizu S-pulse (Machida Zelvia 1733, Shimizu S-pulse 1453, after at least 96 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 5 July 2025, finished Machida Zelvia 3–0 Shimizu S-pulse.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · IAI Stadium Nihondaira
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Shimizu S-pulse 0 · draws 1 · Machida Zelvia 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Shimizu S-pulse 1W 2D 2L · Machida Zelvia 4W 1D 0L

TACTIX runs Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia (J1 League) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.63 / 0.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 4.29
Corners
against 3 / 3.29 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.25 / 5
Shots on target
against 3 / 4.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.25 / 1.29
Cards
against 1.38 / 1.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameShimizu S-pulse for / againstLineMachida Zelvia for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 0.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 3 against n 8
9.5standard
4.29 for · 3.29 against n 7
Shots
12.25 for · 9.38 against n 8
19.5standard
14.29 for · 12 against n 7
Shots on target
3.25 for · 3 against n 8
8.5standard
5 for · 4.29 against n 7
Fouls committed
9.88 for · 11.25 against n 8
21.5standard
10.86 for · 9.29 against n 7
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.29 for · 1.29 against n 7
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ryo Germain n 838.5
2.36/2
0.93/0
—
Kazuki Kozuka n 842.3
2.16/2
0.31/0
—
K. Inoue n 861.9
1.86/3
1.55/3
—
Se-hun Oh n 852.3
1.75/1
0.93/1
—
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi n 876
1.67/4
0.11/0
—
Shimizu S-pulse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Kitagawa n 865.5
1.75/3
1.44/3
Se-hun Oh n 852.3
1.75/3
0.94/0
Capixaba n 857.1
1.44/2
0.62/1
Kanta Chiba n 831.5
1.43/1
0.71/1
K. Matsuzaki n 859.1
1.34/2
0.21/0
Shimizu S-pulse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Masaki Yumiba n 868.4
0.21/0
0.32/0
Yutaka Yoshida n 868.1
00/0
0.52/1
K. Kitagawa n 865.5
0.32/0
0.21/0
K. Matsuzaki n 859.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
Se-hun Oh n 852.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Shimizu S-pulse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Zento Uno n 863.9
3.78/5
Mateus Brunetti n 886.4
3.38/6
Masaki Yumiba n 868.4
2.16/3
Ryo Germain n 838.5
1.84/1
Kanta Chiba n 831.5
1.84/1
Shimizu S-pulse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Togo Umeda n 884.4
2.15/2
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Kuwayama n 822
3.15/1
0.51/0
—
Mitchell Duke n 874.3
36/6
1.45/4
—
Keiya Sento n 839.4
2.33/3
24/2
—
Kotaro Hayashi n 860.1
1.75/2
0.42/0
—
Shota Fujio n 846.5
1.74/2
13/1
—
Machida Zelvia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Tete Yengi n 854.8
2.56/4
1.25/1
T. Nishimura n 849.3
2.34/3
0.71/1
Shota Fujio n 846.5
2.25/2
0.73/0
Mitchell Duke n 874.3
1.76/3
0.83/1
Keiya Sento n 839.4
1.75/1
0.62/0
Machida Zelvia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Kuwayama n 822
00/0
12/0
Mitchell Duke n 874.3
0.52/1
0.32/0
Hokuto Shimoda n 858.3
0.42/0
0.42/0
Sang-Ho Na n 863.6
0.41/1
0.21/0
Tete Yengi n 854.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
Machida Zelvia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Neta Lavi n 869.1
3.78/5
Henry Heroki Mochizuki n 825.8
2.24/1
Ryohei Shirasaki n 859.4
2.17/3
Gen Shoji n 883.8
27/4
Hiroyuki Mae n 882.6
1.86/4
Machida Zelvia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kosei Tani n 893.8
3.77/5
Tatsuya Morita n 390
0.71/0

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Shimizu S-pulseLDLWD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Machida ZelviaWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Shimizu S-pulse 0 · 1 draw · Machida Zelvia 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2025-07-05 Machida Zelvia 3–0 Shimizu S-pulse
  • 2025-05-11 Shimizu S-pulse 2–2 Machida Zelvia
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Shimizu S-pulse#10 pos13 pts9 pl-1 GD
Machida Zelvia#3 pos20 pts9 pl+12 GD
Goals per game
Shimizu S-pulse scored0.89
Machida Zelvia scored2.44
Shimizu S-pulse conceded1
Machida Zelvia conceded1.11

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia?
In their last 2 meetings, Shimizu S-pulse won 0, Machida Zelvia won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia?
Recent form — Shimizu S-pulse 1W 2D 2L; Machida Zelvia 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s boards

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