Manchester City v Brighton prediction
Team pages: Manchester City · Brighton · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Manchester City v Brighton, League Cup on Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:30 GMT.
The match
Manchester City host Brighton in the League Cup on Wednesday 28 October (kick-off 19:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Manchester City have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions. Brighton are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions. Brighton have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
10 of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Manchester City have six wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.25 points per game, scoring 3.00 and conceding 1.63.
10 of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in three of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions (20%). Away from home, Brighton have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.00.
TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Manchester City the stronger side, 402 rating points above Brighton (Manchester City 2345, Brighton 1943, after at least 22 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Brighton are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Manchester City. The most recent meeting, on 7 January 2026, finished Manchester City 1–1 Brighton.
Team news
By TACTIX Impact, Erling Haaland (6.1 per match over 10 appearances, 12 goals) and R. Cherki (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, six goals and two assists) have been Manchester City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Erling Haaland averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 1790 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. R. Cherki averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 1197 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
By TACTIX Impact, Mats Wieffer (5.8 per match over four appearances, one goal) and Pascal Groß (5.0 per match over 12 appearances, four goals and four assists) have been Brighton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Brighton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mats Wieffer averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 362 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last five appearances. Pascal Groß averages 3.9 key passes per 90 over 1094 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · League Cup · Etihad Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester City 2 · draws 2 · Brighton 2 · 3.17 goals/game
- Recent form: Manchester City 4W 0D 1L · Brighton 4W 1D 0L
Manchester City v Brighton (League Cup): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 23 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Manchester City for / against | Line | Brighton for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 3.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 2.88 for · 0.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.88 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.38 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 16.75 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 21 for · 9.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 6.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.88 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 13 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Manchester City
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Semenyo n 8 | 76.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | — |
| Vitor Nunes n 8 | 57.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | — |
| N. O'Reilly n 8 | 52 | 1.5 | 0.2 | — |
| R. McAidoo n 6 | 41.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | — |
| R. Aït-Nouri n 8 | 56.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haaland n 8 | 85.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| R. McAidoo n 6 | 41.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| P. Foden n 8 | 65.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| I. Ndiaye n 8 | 64.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| R. Cherki n 8 | 63.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haaland n 8 | 85.9 | 1.2 | 0 |
| P. Foden n 8 | 65.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| R. Cherki n 8 | 63.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| R. McAidoo n 6 | 41.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| A. Semenyo n 8 | 76.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| R. Aït-Nouri n 8 | 56.5 | 4 |
| J. Gvardiol n 8 | 71.9 | 2.7 |
| A. Khusanov n 8 | 73.5 | 2.3 |
| E. Anderson n 8 | 73.1 | 2 |
| Allan Elias n 8 | 72.3 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| G. Donnarumma n 8 | 90 | 4.3 |
| G. Rulli n 8 | 80.1 | 1.7 |
Brighton
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José María Andrés Baixauli n 8 | 52.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | — |
| M. Svoboda n 8 | 69 | 2.3 | 0.5 | — |
| P. David n 8 | 30.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | — |
| I. Osman n 8 | 46.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | — |
| J. Hadjam n 8 | 50.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| P. David n 8 | 30.5 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| C. Kostoulas n 8 | 66 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| J. Hinshelwood n 8 | 58 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| G. Rutter n 8 | 49.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| I. Osman n 8 | 46.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| G. Rutter n 8 | 49.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| P. Groß n 8 | 80.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| C. Kostoulas n 8 | 66 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| J. Hinshelwood n 8 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| P. David n 8 | 30.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Gómez n 8 | 80.3 | 3.1 |
| J. Hadjam n 8 | 50.5 | 2.5 |
| M. De Cuyper n 8 | 64.9 | 2.4 |
| José María Andrés Baixauli n 8 | 52.8 | 1.9 |
| M. Svoboda n 8 | 69 | 1.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Jason Steele n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
| B. Verbruggen n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Manchester City v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-01-07 Manchester City 1–1 Brighton
- 2025-08-31 Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
- 2025-03-15 Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
- 2024-11-09 Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
- 2024-04-25 Brighton 0–4 Manchester City
- 2023-10-21 Manchester City 2–1 Brighton
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Manchester City v Brighton?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester City v Brighton is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Brighton?
- In their last 6 meetings, Manchester City won 2, Brighton won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Manchester City and Brighton?
- Recent form — Manchester City 4W 0D 1L; Brighton 4W 1D 0L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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