Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon result

Full-time · Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon

League One · Wed, 02 Sep 2026 19:45 BST · Pirelli Stadium

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 11:22 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Burton Albion · AFC Wimbledon · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon — Burton Albion won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.32 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 4–1 at Pirelli Stadium in League One on Wednesday 2 September. Burton Albion have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Burton Albion led 2–1 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — AFC Wimbledon: Jayden Stockley (18’, assisted by James Tilley) and an own goal by Alistair Smith (34’); Burton Albion: George Evans (28’), Charles Webster (46’, assisted by Kyran Lofthouse) and Caylan Vickers (76’, assisted by Sulyman Krubally).

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: AFC Wimbledon out-shot Burton Albion 19 to 10 and created the better chances, 1.43 xG to 0.93 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Brown showed two yellow cards — against 2.6 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Burton Albion: Jack Armer (83’); AFC Wimbledon: Andrew Yiadom (72’).

What it changes

Burton Albion move up from 10th to fourth (four league matches played).

AFC Wimbledon move down from 13th to 16th (shared) (four league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Sulyman Krubally (Burton Albion) 9.9, James Tilley (AFC Wimbledon) 7.5 and Jayden Stockley (AFC Wimbledon) 7.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Burton Albion or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1122 of 1490).

Next up

Burton Albion next host Bradford on 20 October 2026.

AFC Wimbledon next host Mansfield Town on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Burton Albion: Burton Albion v Bradford, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for AFC Wimbledon: AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon · League One
Venue: Pirelli Stadium · Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
Referee: D. Brown
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Burton Albion 3 · draws 3 · AFC Wimbledon 0 · 1.5 goals/game
Recent form: Burton Albion 1W 2D 2L · AFC Wimbledon 1W 2D 2L

Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 5.13

Corners

against 4.13 / 6.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.38 / 2.38

Shots on target

against 3.75 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 2.38

Cards

against 0.88 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Burton Albion for / against	Line	AFC Wimbledon for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.63 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.13 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.13 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	8.63 for · 17.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.38 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.38 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.63 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.38 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: D. Brown.

Burton Albion

Burton Albion — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
W. Collar n 8	32.3	2.8 6/2	0.7 2/0	J. Stockley
M. Dennis n 8	58	2.5 5/4	1 3/1	—
J. McKiernan n 8	34.8	2.3 4/2	1.9 6/0	—
F. Delap n 8	80.1	2.2 7/4	0.6 3/1	—
Sulyman Krubally n 8	57.8	2.1 6/2	1.8 5/3	M. Hippolyte

Burton Albion — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Zac Scutt n 7	23.3	2.8 2/1	1.7 2/1
C. Webster n 8	84.5	2.7 6/6	1.2 5/3
J. Beesley n 8	75.1	1.9 6/4	1 5/2
A. Cannon n 8	62.6	1.8 6/2	0.7 3/1
Fábio Tavares n 8	62.3	1.8 5/2	1.1 4/2

Burton Albion — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Fábio Tavares n 8	62.3	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
Zac Scutt n 7	23.3	0.6 1/0	0 0/0
A. Hartridge n 8	90.8	0.2 2/0	0 0/0
K. Lofthouse n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Armer n 8	88.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0

Burton Albion — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. McKiernan n 8	34.8	3.2 5/4
Emeka Adeile n 3	22	2.7 1/1
J. Armer n 8	88.5	2.5 8/6
T. Sibbick n 8	49.4	2.5 5/3
A. Cannon n 8	62.6	2.3 5/3

Burton Albion — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
C. Addai n 8	90	3.8 8/5

AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Stockley n 8	51.8	2.4 6/4	1.7 3/2	W. Collar
M. Browne n 8	78.6	1.9 6/5	1.3 4/3	—
Z. Nelson n 8	42.9	1.8 5/1	1.6 4/1	—
L. Stewart n 8	59.8	1.7 5/3	1.1 3/3	—
M. Hippolyte n 8	84.9	1.3 7/3	1.3 5/3	Sulyman Krubally

AFC Wimbledon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Stockley n 8	51.8	2 7/2	0.4 2/0
L. Stewart n 8	59.8	1.5 6/2	0.9 5/0
Kai Jennings n 7	43.9	1.2 3/1	0.3 1/0
J. Tilley n 8	86.6	1 4/3	0.4 3/0
A. Hackford n 8	24.4	0.9 2/0	0.9 2/0

AFC Wimbledon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Hackford n 8	24.4	0.5 1/0	0 0/0
Kai Jennings n 7	43.9	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Z. Nelson n 8	42.9	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
J. Reeves n 8	70.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
L. Stewart n 8	59.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0

AFC Wimbledon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Yiadom n 8	29	3.5 3/2
J. Tilley n 8	86.6	2.7 7/6
N. Asiimwe n 8	52.5	2.4 4/3
A. Smith n 8	87.6	2.2 6/5
P. Bauer n 8	53.4	1.9 6/2

AFC Wimbledon — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Bishop n 8	91.3	3.5 7/6
J. McDonnell n 8	90	3 6/6

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Burton Albion		AFC Wimbledon
50%	Possession	50%
0.93	Expected goals (xG)	1.43
10	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	4
3	Shots off target	9
2	Blocked shots	6
5	Shots inside the box	14
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
8	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	2
432	Passes	413
78%	Pass accuracy	80%

Burton Albion player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Addai	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Webster	90	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	7.5
T. Sibbick	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.5
Sulyman Krubally	90	0	1	0	0	1	5	0	8.2
F. Delap	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
K. Chauke	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.7
J. Armer	89	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	7.3
K. Lofthouse	89	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	7
Caylan Vickers	81	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	7.3
G. Evans	65	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	7.7
W. Collar	65	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
J. Lewis sub	25	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.5
K. Adom sub	25	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
Emeka Adeile sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
Zac Scutt sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
Harvey Araujo sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

AFC Wimbledon player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Tilley	90	0	1	1	0	2	4	0	7.3
A. Yiadom	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	5.6
J. Stockley	90	1	0	4	2	1	0	0	7.7
A. Smith	90	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	6.2
S. Seddon	90	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	6.6
R. Johnson	90	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	5.3
M. Hippolyte	90	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	6.5
J. McDonnell	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.5
D. Sweeney	61	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5.9
Z. Nelson	61	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.2
Donnell McNeilly	61	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6
C. Maycock sub	29	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.5
A. Sasu sub	29	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
S. Sessegnon sub	29	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Burton AlbionDLDWL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

AFC WimbledonDLDLW

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Burton Albion 3 · 3 draws · AFC Wimbledon 0 · 1.5 goals/game

2026-04-11 Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon
2025-10-25 AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Burton Albion
2022-01-22 Burton Albion 1–1 AFC Wimbledon
2021-10-02 AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Burton Albion
2021-03-09 AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Burton Albion
2020-10-24 Burton Albion 1–1 AFC Wimbledon

League standing · 2026/27

Burton Albion#10 pos13 pts11 pl-2 GD

AFC Wimbledon#15 pos12 pts10 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Burton Albion scored1.45

AFC Wimbledon scored0.7

Burton Albion conceded1.64

AFC Wimbledon conceded1.5

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon was Home or Draw (best price 1.32 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?: In their last 6 meetings, Burton Albion won 3, AFC Wimbledon won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?: Recent form — Burton Albion 1W 2D 2L; AFC Wimbledon 1W 2D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 18 Oct 2026, 11:22 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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