Reading v AFC Wimbledon result

Full-time · Reading 1–2 AFC Wimbledon

League One · Sat, 16 Aug 2025 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Reading 1–2 AFC Wimbledon — AFC Wimbledon won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.4% of 170 landed (95% range 44.9–59.7%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

AFC Wimbledon won 2–1 at Reading in League One on Saturday 16 August.

The goals

AFC Wimbledon led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — AFC Wimbledon: M. Stevens (32’, assisted by Nathan Asiimwe) and Marcus Browne (70’, assisted by Myles Hippolyte); Reading: Lewis Wing (86’, assisted by K. Abrefa).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with M. Stevens’s goal on 32 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Reading 0.00, AFC Wimbledon 0.00, from 14 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Jamie O'Connor, England showed two yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Reading: Michael George Stickland (69’); AFC Wimbledon: Ryan Johnson (74’).

What it changes

Reading stay 24th after this result (three league matches played).

AFC Wimbledon move up from eighth to sixth (shared) (three league matches played).

AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Finley Burns (Reading) 7.5, Nathan Asiimwe (AFC Wimbledon) 7.0 and Lewis Wing (Reading) 6.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Reading next host Barnsley on 24 October 2026.

AFC Wimbledon next host Wycombe on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Reading: Reading v Barnsley, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for AFC Wimbledon: AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Reading 1–2 AFC Wimbledon · League One
Referee: Jamie O'Connor, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Reading 2W 0D 3L · AFC Wimbledon 3W 1D 1L

Reading 1–2 AFC Wimbledon (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 0.88

Goals

against 1.38 / 0.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.14 / 4.14

Corners

against 5.71 / 4.71 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4 / 2.29

Shots on target

against 4.71 / 2.71 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.86 / 1.86

Cards

against 1.86 / 0.71 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

4.8 yellows

Referee · Jamie O'Connor, England

2.2 home / 2.6 away

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Reading for / against	Line	AFC Wimbledon for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.88 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.14 for · 5.71 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	4.14 for · 4.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	10 for · 11.86 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	9.14 for · 7.14 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4 for · 4.71 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	2.29 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.29 for · 13.71 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.14 for · 10.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.86 for · 1.86 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.86 for · 0.71 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Jamie O'Connor, England — 4.8 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 22.2 fouls over 5 matches (2.2 to the home side, 2.6 to the away side).

Home 2.2Away 2.6

Reading

Reading — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Ahmed n 6	24.8	3.6 4/2	0.6 1/0	—
Mark O’Mahony n 8	35.3	2.9 5/3	1.3 4/0	—
B. Elliott n 8	72.4	2.2 8/5	1.6 6/3	—
J. Wareham n 8	71.4	2 6/5	1.6 6/2	—
M. Jacob n 8	53.6	1.9 5/3	0.8 3/1	—

Reading — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Wareham n 8	71.4	1.9 6/4	1.1 5/2
L. Wing n 8	82	1.6 6/5	1.2 6/3
B. Elliott n 8	72.4	1.4 5/3	0.8 4/1
D. Kyerewaa n 3	42.7	1.4 2/0	0.7 1/0
C. Savage n 8	82	1.2 6/2	0.3 2/0

Reading — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Wareham n 8	71.4	0.5 2/1	0.2 1/0
L. Wing n 8	82	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
H. Knibbs n 8	74.1	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
B. Elliott n 8	72.4	0 0/0	0.5 1/1
K. Ehibhatiomhan n 8	69.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Reading — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Ahmed n 6	24.8	4.2 3/1
B. Elliott n 8	72.4	2.8 7/5
F. Burns n 8	62.4	2.7 5/4
H. Knibbs n 8	74.1	2.6 8/5
A. Yiadom n 8	33.5	2.4 3/2

AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Omar Bugiel n 8	55.3	4.3 6/5	2.6 7/4	—
S. Hutchinson n 8	70.5	2.1 6/5	0.3 2/0	—
M. Hippolyte n 8	53.8	1.9 6/2	1.7 5/3	—
R. Harbottle n 8	68.8	1.6 6/3	1.5 5/3	—
M. Browne n 8	65.3	1.6 5/2	2.1 6/3	—

AFC Wimbledon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Browne n 8	65.3	2.1 5/3	0.9 3/1
D. Orsi n 8	38.4	1.5 4/1	0.3 1/0
A. Sasu n 8	27.3	1.2 3/0	0.4 1/0
M. Stevens n 8	66.3	1 4/2	0.5 3/0
Omar Bugiel n 8	55.3	1 4/1	0.2 1/0

AFC Wimbledon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Hackford n 8	26.9	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
D. Orsi n 8	38.4	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
S. Hutchinson n 8	70.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
R. Harbottle n 8	68.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
M. Stevens n 8	66.3	0.2 1/0	0 0/0

AFC Wimbledon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Neufville n 8	90	3 8/7
M. Hippolyte n 8	53.8	2.9 5/4
I. Ogundere n 8	49.8	2.9 5/4
J. Lewis n 8	89.9	2.8 8/5
R. Harbottle n 8	68.8	2.8 6/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Reading		AFC Wimbledon
60%	Possession	40%
14	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots off target	2
4	Blocked shots	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
6	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Saves	2
475	Passes	311
79%	Pass accuracy	62%

Reading player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Joel Pereira	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
F. Burns	90	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	7.3
M. Jacob	90	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5.9
L. Wing	90	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	8.9
C. Savage	90	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	6.9
D. Kyerewaa	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
K. Ehibhatiomhan	76	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.6
Michael George Stickland	73	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	5.9
A. Ahmed	67	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.7
L. Fraser	66	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.2
A. Garcia	66	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.9
K. Doyle sub	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Mark O’Mahony sub	25	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.3
K. Abrefa sub	24	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.9
D. Williams sub	18	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.9
Mamadi Camará sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

AFC Wimbledon player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
N. Bishop	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
I. Ogundere	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	6.7
J. Lewis	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
N. Asiimwe	90	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	7.7
J. Reeves	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
A. Smith	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
S. Seddon	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.7
R. Johnson	89	0	0	0	0	1	0	Y	6.9
M. Stevens	81	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.5
M. Browne	81	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	8
A. Hackford	58	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
M. Hippolyte sub	33	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
Omar Bugiel sub	10	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
D. Orsi sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
R. Harbottle sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Reading v AFC Wimbledon — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ReadingWLLLW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

AFC WimbledonWWLWD

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1 scored / 0.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Reading#12 pos63 pts46 pl+4 GD

AFC Wimbledon#19 pos53 pts46 pl-21 GD

Goals per game

Reading scored1.39

AFC Wimbledon scored1.11

Reading conceded1.3

AFC Wimbledon conceded1.57

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Reading v AFC Wimbledon?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Reading v AFC Wimbledon was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Reading and AFC Wimbledon?: Recent form — Reading 2W 0D 3L; AFC Wimbledon 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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