Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United result

Full-time · Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United

League Two · Sat, 23 Aug 2025 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Cambridge United · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United — Bristol Rovers won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4535 landed (95% range 76–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Bristol Rovers beat Cambridge United 1–0 in League Two on Saturday 23 August.

The goals

Bristol Rovers led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bristol Rovers: Ellis Harrison (34’, assisted by Alfie Kilgour). Mamadou Jobe (90’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ellis Harrison’s goal on 34 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Bristol Rovers 0.00, Cambridge United 0.00, from 9 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Bristol Rovers: Isaac Hutchinson (5’) and Luke Southwood (41’); Cambridge United: James Gibbons (15’), Mamadou Jobe (80’) and Mamadou Jobe (90+10’).

What it changes

Bristol Rovers move up from 20th to 17th (five league matches played).

Cambridge United move down from eighth to 11th (five league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, J. McEachran (Bristol Rovers) 7.4, P. Omochere (Bristol Rovers) 6.4 and Alfie Kilgour (Bristol Rovers) 6.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Bristol Rovers or Cambridge United (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.2% of the time in the last 90 days (3501 of 4535).

Next up

Bristol Rovers next host Salford City on 20 October 2026.

Cambridge United next host Wycombe on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Salford City, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Cambridge United: Cambridge United v Wycombe, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United · League Two
Referee: P. Marsden
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Bristol Rovers 4 · draws 0 · Cambridge United 2 · 1.83 goals/game
Recent form: Bristol Rovers 0W 1D 4L · Cambridge United 3W 1D 1L

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.38 / 1.38

Goals

against 1.88 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.86 / 5.5

Corners

against 3.57 / 3.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 4.57 / 3.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 2

Cards

against 1.57 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Bristol Rovers for / against	Line	Cambridge United for / against
Goals scored	0.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.86 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.5 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.14 for · 11.57 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 8.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3 for · 4.57 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13 for · 11.71 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.75 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.57 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: P. Marsden.

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Conteh n 8	90	2.3 7/6	0.3 2/0	D. Ball
G. O'Donkor n 8	59.5	2.3 6/3	1.1 3/2	—
L. Thomas n 8	52.1	2.2 5/2	1.5 4/1	E. Kachunga
P. Omochere n 8	51.5	2.2 7/2	1.7 4/3	E. Kachunga
J. McEachran n 8	47.1	2.1 5/3	0 0/0	D. Ball

Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
P. Omochere n 8	51.5	2.2 7/2	1.1 5/0
I. Hutchinson n 8	43	1.8 6/1	0.5 2/0
R. Sotiriou n 8	62.4	1.4 5/2	0.5 3/0
E. Harrison n 8	35.3	1.3 4/0	0.3 1/0
K. Shaw n 8	80.8	1.1 5/3	0.3 2/0

Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
I. Hutchinson n 8	43	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
M. Butcher n 8	73.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
M. Southam-Hales n 8	71.1	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
J. Sparkes n 8	61.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
G. O'Donkor n 8	59.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0

Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Mola n 8	75.4	2.8 7/4
R. Howley n 8	41.3	2.7 3/2
J. Senior n 8	51.9	2.2 7/2
J. McEachran n 8	47.1	2.1 5/3
I. Hutchinson n 8	43	2.1 4/2

Cambridge United

Cambridge United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Loft n 8	29.3	5 5/4	0.8 2/0	—
E. Kachunga n 8	49.5	2.7 5/3	1.6 5/2	P. Omochere
D. Ball n 8	57	2.2 4/3	1 4/1	J. McEachran
J. Stokes n 8	64.1	2.1 8/4	0.7 4/0	—
L. Appéré n 8	73.3	1.4 6/3	0.8 3/1	—

Cambridge United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Lavery n 8	52.4	2.6 7/3	1.3 5/1
J. Stokes n 8	64.1	2.1 7/3	1.1 3/2
S. Kaikai n 8	82	1.9 8/5	1 5/2
B. Knight n 8	56.8	1.8 5/2	0.6 1/1
J. Brophy n 8	79.1	1.6 6/3	0.7 4/1

Cambridge United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Lavery n 8	52.4	0.6 2/1	0.4 2/0
R. Loft n 8	29.3	0.4 1/0	0.4 1/0
L. Appéré n 8	73.3	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
S. Kaikai n 8	82	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
J. Stokes n 8	64.1	0.4 2/0	0 0/0

Cambridge United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Gibbons n 8	68.8	3.4 7/5
S. McLoughlin n 8	72.3	2.8 8/4
B. Stevenson n 8	90	2.4 6/5
D. Ball n 8	57	2 6/3
P. Digby n 8	85	1.7 8/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Bristol Rovers		Cambridge United
43%	Possession	57%
9	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	0
4	Shots off target	4
2	Blocked shots	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
11	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
0	Saves	2
266	Passes	339
58%	Pass accuracy	73%

Bristol Rovers player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Southwood	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	Y	7.2
K. Łopata	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7.2
A. Kilgour	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	7.3
J. Sparkes	90	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	7.9
K. Conteh	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
J. McEachran	90	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	7.9
P. Omochere	90	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	7.3
L. Thomas	82	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	7
M. Southam-Hales	72	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	7.3
I. Hutchinson	72	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.6
E. Harrison	60	1	0	6	2	0	0	0	6.9
F. Cavegn sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
J. Senior sub	19	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
R. Howley sub	19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
T. Moore sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Cambridge United player stats

Player	Min	Sh	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Eastwood	90	0	0	1	0	6.9
M. Jobe	90	0	0	1	RY	6.9
K. Watts	90	0	0	1	0	7.2
D. Ball	90	1	0	1	0	6.2
L. Bennett	90	0	2	1	0	6.5
S. Kaikai	90	1	1	1	0	5.6
L. Appéré	87	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Gibbons	75	0	0	1	Y	6.2
E. Kachunga	65	0	0	0	0	6.2
B. Purrington	45	0	0	2	0	6.2
S. McLoughlin	45	0	0	1	0	6.7
J. Brophy sub	45	0	2	1	0	7
P. Mpanzu sub	45	0	0	1	0	6.9
K. Kouassi sub	26	1	0	0	0	6.3
B. Knight sub	16	0	1	3	0	6.9
R. Loft sub	15	1	0	1	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Bristol RoversLLLLD

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Cambridge UnitedWLWDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Bristol Rovers 4 · 0 draws · Cambridge United 2 · 1.83 goals/game

2025-08-12 Bristol Rovers 0–2 Cambridge United
2025-01-04 Cambridge United 0–1 Bristol Rovers
2024-08-31 Bristol Rovers 2–0 Cambridge United
2024-04-16 Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge United
2023-08-19 Cambridge United 2–0 Bristol Rovers
2023-01-07 Cambridge United 1–2 Bristol Rovers

League standing · 2025/26

Bristol Rovers#14 pos62 pts46 pl-9 GD

Cambridge United#3 pos82 pts46 pl+33 GD

Goals per game

Bristol Rovers scored1.22

Cambridge United scored1.43

Bristol Rovers conceded1.41

Cambridge United conceded0.72

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United?: In their last 6 meetings, Bristol Rovers won 4, Cambridge United won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United?: Recent form — Bristol Rovers 0W 1D 4L; Cambridge United 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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