Chesterfield v Bristol Rovers result

Full-time · Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol Rovers

League Two · Sat, 16 Aug 2025 12:30 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chesterfield · Bristol Rovers

The model’s pre-match pick

Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol Rovers — Chesterfield won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Chesterfield beat Bristol Rovers 3–1 in League Two on Saturday 16 August. Bristol Rovers are winless in their last 14 matches in all competitions.

The goals

Chesterfield led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Chesterfield: Thomas Naylor (41’, assisted by Dylan Duffy), Kyle McFadzean (84’, assisted by A. Lewis) and Armando Dobra (88’, assisted by Liam Mandeville); Bristol Rovers: Isaac Hutchinson (68’). Joel Senior (39’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kyle McFadzean’s goal on 84 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Chesterfield 0.00, Bristol Rovers 0.00, from 20 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Mulhall showed six yellow cards and one red — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Chesterfield: Kyle McFadzean (15’), Thomas Naylor (51’) and V. Campbell (58’); Bristol Rovers: Jack Sparkes (58’), Clinton Mola (72’) and Ruel Sotiriou (80’).

What it changes

Chesterfield stay first after this result (three league matches played).

Bristol Rovers move down from 20th to 22nd (three league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Armando Dobra (Chesterfield) 8.3, Kyle McFadzean (Chesterfield) 6.1 and Isaac Hutchinson (Bristol Rovers) 5.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Chesterfield next host Colchester on 20 October 2026.

Bristol Rovers next host Salford City on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Chesterfield: Chesterfield v Colchester, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Salford City, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol Rovers · League Two
Referee: S. Mulhall
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Chesterfield 2W 0D 3L · Bristol Rovers 0W 0D 5L

Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol Rovers (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.67 / 6.83

Corners

against 3.33 / 3.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

5.83 / 2.67

Shots on target

against 3.17 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.33 / 1.33

Cards

against 2.83 / 1.67 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Chesterfield for / against	Line	Bristol Rovers for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.67 for · 3.33 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	6.83 for · 3.5 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	12 for · 7.83 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	13.33 for · 9.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	5.83 for · 3.17 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	2.67 for · 4 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.33 for · 14.17 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	13 for · 12.17 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1.33 for · 2.83 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	1.33 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: S. Mulhall.

Chesterfield

Chesterfield — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Bonis n 6	46.8	2.2 4/1	2.2 3/2	—
D. Duffy n 8	36.3	2.2 4/2	1.6 3/2	P. Omochere
M. Jacobs n 8	18.8	1.8 3/0	1.8 2/1	—
A. Dobra n 8	61.1	1.7 5/2	4.2 8/5	P. Omochere
Harvey Araujo n 8	76.4	1.5 7/3	0.9 5/1	—

Chesterfield — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Pepple n 8	36.5	2.5 5/2	1.2 3/1
R. Colclough n 8	49	2.3 6/3	0.9 4/0
O. Banks n 8	64.9	2.1 4/2	1 3/1
L. Bonis n 6	46.8	1.9 3/2	1 2/1
W. Grigg n 8	61.9	1.8 6/3	1.3 5/2

Chesterfield — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Duffy n 8	36.3	0.3 1/0	0.6 2/0
W. Grigg n 8	61.9	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
R. Colclough n 8	49	0.2 1/0	0.5 2/0
L. Bonis n 6	46.8	0.6 2/0	0 0/0
M. Jacobs n 8	18.8	0.6 1/0	0 0/0

Chesterfield — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Dobra n 8	61.1	3.9 7/6
D. Duffy n 8	36.3	2.5 6/2
Harvey Araujo n 8	76.4	2.4 7/4
L. Mandeville n 8	58.9	2.1 5/3
Jenson Metcalfe n 8	76.6	1.9 6/3

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
O. Dewsbury n 8	26.9	2.9 5/2	0.8 2/0	—
K. Conteh n 8	90	2.4 8/6	0.4 3/0	—
G. O'Donkor n 8	59.5	2.3 6/3	1.1 3/2	—
L. Thomas n 8	52.1	1.9 4/2	1.5 4/1	—
P. Omochere n 8	52.9	1.7 5/2	1.9 4/3	A. Dobra

Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
P. Omochere n 8	52.9	2.6 7/4	1.3 5/1
R. Sotiriou n 8	73.6	1.4 5/3	0.6 3/1
I. Hutchinson n 8	42.9	1.3 5/0	0.3 1/0
E. Harrison n 8	35.9	1.3 4/0	0 0/0
K. Shaw n 8	80.8	1.1 5/3	0.3 2/0

Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
P. Omochere n 8	52.9	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
R. Sotiriou n 8	73.6	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
T. Moore n 8	73.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
M. Butcher n 8	71.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
J. Sparkes n 8	61.1	0 0/0	0.2 1/0

Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Mola n 8	73.6	2.8 7/3
J. McEachran n 8	46.8	2.6 5/4
K. Conteh n 8	90	2.5 7/6
A. Kilgour n 8	49.8	2.5 6/4
S. Swinkels n 8	74.5	2.4 6/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Chesterfield		Bristol Rovers
70%	Possession	30%
20	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	3
6	Shots off target	2
4	Blocked shots	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
4	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
9	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
2	Saves	7
535	Passes	222
85%	Pass accuracy	59%

Chesterfield player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Z. Hemming	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
C. Dunkley	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
K. McFadzean	90	1	0	2	2	0	0	Y	8.9
R. Stirk	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	7
D. Markanday	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.3
A. Dobra	90	1	0	5	4	0	0	0	7.6
V. Campbell	83	0	0	0	0	2	0	Y	6.6
L. Gordon	83	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.5
T. Naylor	83	1	0	2	1	1	0	Y	8
L. Bonis	83	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	6.6
D. Duffy	64	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	7
R. Darcy sub	27	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
L. Mandeville sub	8	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
A. Lewis sub	8	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	7
J. Fleck sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
W. Grigg sub	8	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.3

Bristol Rovers player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Southwood	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
A. Kilgour	90	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.2
C. Mola	90	0	0	0	0	2	Y	5.9
J. Sparkes	90	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.2
K. Conteh	90	0	1	0	2	2	0	6.3
R. Howley	76	0	0	0	2	6	0	6.9
P. Omochere	70	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.5
J. McEachran	61	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.2
K. Łopata	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
E. Harrison	45	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.5
J. Senior	39	0	0	0	0	1	R	5.7
M. Southam-Hales sub	45	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
R. Sotiriou sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
I. Hutchinson sub	30	1	1	1	0	1	0	7
F. Cavegn sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
T. Moore sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Chesterfield v Bristol Rovers — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ChesterfieldLLWWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Bristol RoversLLLLL

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Chesterfield#6 pos79 pts46 pl+15 GD

Bristol Rovers#14 pos62 pts46 pl-9 GD

Goals per game

Chesterfield scored1.54

Bristol Rovers scored1.22

Chesterfield conceded1.22

Bristol Rovers conceded1.41

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Chesterfield v Bristol Rovers?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Chesterfield v Bristol Rovers was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Chesterfield and Bristol Rovers?: Recent form — Chesterfield 2W 0D 3L; Bristol Rovers 0W 0D 5L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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