Grimsby v Bristol Rovers result

Full-time · Grimsby 0–1 Bristol Rovers

League Two · Sat, 30 Aug 2025 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Grimsby 0–1 Bristol Rovers — Bristol Rovers won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Bristol Rovers won 1–0 at Grimsby in League Two on Saturday 30 August.

The goals

Bristol Rovers led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bristol Rovers: Macauley Southam-Hales (27’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Macauley Southam-Hales’s goal on 27 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Grimsby 0.00, Bristol Rovers 0.00, from 12 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Neil Hair, England showed four yellow cards — against 2.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Grimsby: Justin Amaluzor (25’); Bristol Rovers: K. Łopata (39’), Alfie Kilgour (58’) and R. Howley (81’).

What it changes

Grimsby move down from third to seventh (six league matches played).

Bristol Rovers move up from 17th to 15th (six league matches played).

Grimsby are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Bristol Rovers have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Macauley Southam-Hales (Bristol Rovers) 5.8, T. Warren (Grimsby) 3.8 and Cameron McJannet (Grimsby) 3.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Grimsby next travel to Rochdale on 20 October 2026.

Bristol Rovers next host Salford City on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Grimsby: Rochdale v Grimsby, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Salford City, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Grimsby 0–1 Bristol Rovers · League Two
Referee: Neil Hair, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Grimsby 3W 2D 0L · Bristol Rovers 1W 1D 3L

Grimsby 0–1 Bristol Rovers (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

7 / 5.5

Corners

against 3.63 / 3.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 3

Shots on target

against 3.38 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.13 / 2

Cards

against 3.25 / 1.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Grimsby for / against	Line	Bristol Rovers for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.5 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.13 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.88 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.25 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.75 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.13 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Neil Hair, England.

Grimsby

Grimsby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Walker n 8	31.5	3.6 5/3	2.9 4/2	—
Jaze Kabia n 8	60	3 6/5	1.5 3/2	—
Justin Amaluzor n 8	42.8	2.1 5/3	2.1 5/2	—
Cameron Gardner n 8	34.6	1.9 6/0	1.6 3/2	—
Henry Brown n 5	11.2	1.6 1/0	1.6 1/0	—

Grimsby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jaze Kabia n 8	60	2.1 6/2	1.5 6/1
Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu n 8	56.4	2 5/2	1.6 5/2
Justin Amaluzor n 8	42.8	1.8 4/1	1.1 3/1
J. Walker n 8	31.5	1.8 4/1	0.4 1/0
E. Khouri n 8	76.9	1.6 6/4	0.4 3/0

Grimsby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Vernam n 8	61.8	0.4 2/0	0.4 2/0
Jaze Kabia n 8	60	0.8 4/0	0 0/0
Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu n 8	56.4	0.6 3/0	0 0/0
Justin Amaluzor n 8	42.8	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
Cameron Gardner n 8	34.6	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

Grimsby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Turi n 7	51.9	5.2 7/6
J. Walker n 8	31.5	4.3 5/3
G. McEachran n 8	87.9	2.6 7/4
T. Warren n 8	57	2.4 8/3
J. Svanþórsson n 8	79.6	2.3 8/5

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
O. Dewsbury n 8	26.9	2.9 5/2	0.8 2/0	—
K. Conteh n 8	90	2.1 7/5	0.3 2/0	—
P. Omochere n 8	60	2.1 7/3	1.7 5/3	—
J. McEachran n 8	56.1	2 6/3	0.2 1/0	—
J. Senior n 8	44.8	1.8 4/3	1.3 3/2	—

Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Harrison n 8	34.5	2.9 4/1	1 2/1
P. Omochere n 8	60	1.9 7/2	0.9 5/0
R. Sotiriou n 8	62.4	1.4 5/2	0.5 3/0
I. Hutchinson n 8	50.6	1.3 5/1	0.4 2/0
K. Shaw n 8	80.8	1.1 5/3	0.3 2/0

Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Harrison n 8	34.5	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
M. Butcher n 8	68.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
P. Omochere n 8	60	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
I. Hutchinson n 8	50.6	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
J. Wilson n 8	80.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0

Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. McEachran n 8	56.1	3 6/4
C. Mola n 8	75.4	2.8 7/4
J. Senior n 8	44.8	2.8 7/3
R. Howley n 8	41.9	2.7 3/2
K. Łopata n 8	69.3	2.4 6/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Grimsby		Bristol Rovers
67%	Possession	33%
12	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots off target	0
5	Blocked shots	4
8	Shots inside the box	4
9	Corners	8
4	Offsides	1
9	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	2
447	Passes	220
79%	Pass accuracy	50%

Grimsby player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Pym	90	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
H. Rodgers	90	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
T. Warren	90	1	0	0	2	0	7.5
C. McJannet	90	1	0	0	1	0	6.9
K. Green	90	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
E. Khouri	90	1	0	0	1	0	6.2
C. Vernam	89	2	2	2	1	0	6.7
R. Staunton	80	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Jaze Kabia	80	1	0	1	1	0	7
G. Turi	45	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
Justin Amaluzor	45	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
G. McEachran sub	45	1	0	0	1	0	7.2
D. Burns sub	45	0	0	3	0	0	7.2
Cameron Gardner sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
D. Rose sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Oduor sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	–

Bristol Rovers player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Southwood	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
M. Southam-Hales	90	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.9
K. Łopata	90	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.6
A. Kilgour	90	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.9
J. Sparkes	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
K. Conteh	90	0	0	0	1	2	0	7.2
P. Omochere	90	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.7
J. McEachran	74	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
L. Thomas	63	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
E. Harrison	63	0	0	0	1	2	0	7.2
R. Sotiriou	52	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.6
F. Cavegn sub	38	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
T. Moore sub	27	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
R. Howley sub	27	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
I. Hutchinson sub	16	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Grimsby v Bristol Rovers — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GrimsbyWWWDD

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

Bristol RoversLLLDW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

League standing · 2025/26

Grimsby#7 pos78 pts46 pl+24 GD

Bristol Rovers#14 pos62 pts46 pl-9 GD

Goals per game

Grimsby scored1.61

Bristol Rovers scored1.22

Grimsby conceded1.09

Bristol Rovers conceded1.41

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Grimsby v Bristol Rovers?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Grimsby v Bristol Rovers was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Grimsby and Bristol Rovers?: Recent form — Grimsby 3W 2D 0L; Bristol Rovers 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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