Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa prediction
Team pages: Guadalajara Chivas · Necaxa · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa, Liga MX on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 01:07 BST.
The match
Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa in Liga MX on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 01:07 UK); the model’s free pick is Guadalajara Chivas to win.
The key numbers
Guadalajara Chivas have conceded 12 goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2026 so far).
Both teams scored in 12 of Necaxa’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%).
Guadalajara Chivas are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Necaxa are winless in their last nine matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Five of Guadalajara Chivas’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in eight of Guadalajara Chivas’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Guadalajara Chivas have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.14. Guadalajara Chivas have scored 19 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026 so far).
10 of Necaxa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Away from home, Necaxa have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 2.13. Necaxa have scored 15 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026 so far). Necaxa have conceded 25 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs.
Guadalajara Chivas (fourth) and Necaxa (17th) are 11 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Guadalajara Chivas the stronger side, 346 rating points above Necaxa (Guadalajara Chivas 1664, Necaxa 1319, after at least 322 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas.
Team news
Predicted Guadalajara Chivas XI (3-4-2-1): R. Rangel, D. Campillo Del Campo, D. Aguirre, L. Romo, R. González, R. Alvarado, O. Govea, H. Camberos, B. Gutierrez, S. Sandoval, R. Marin — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, R. Alvarado (5.4 per match over 13 appearances, four goals) and L. Romo (4.6 per match over 12 appearances, one assist) have been Guadalajara Chivas’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Guadalajara Chivas (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), R. Alvarado averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 2101 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. L. Romo averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 1597 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Necaxa XI (4-1-4-1): L. Jiménez, A. Oliveros, K. Naves, R. Martínez, A. Peña, P. Pedraza, D. Leyva, L. Faravelli, O. Ojeda, M. Espindola, J. Carranza — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, J. Carranza (4.9 per match over 14 appearances, seven goals and two assists) and C. Vargas (3.6 per match over 10 appearances, one assist) have been Necaxa’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Necaxa (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), J. Carranza averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 1120 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. C. Vargas averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 638 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Liga MX · Estadio AKRON
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Guadalajara Chivas 3 · draws 1 · Necaxa 2 · 2.83 goals/game
- Recent form: Guadalajara Chivas 1W 3D 1L · Necaxa 0W 1D 4L
Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa (Liga MX): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Guadalajara Chivas for / against | Line | Necaxa for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.88 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.38 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 14.63 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14.38 for · 18.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.38 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.13 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 13.25 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Guadalajara Chivas
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gutierrez n 8 | 57.5 | 2 | 1.6 | — |
| D. Aguirre n 8 | 83.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | — |
| Á. Sepúlveda n 8 | 42.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | — |
| M. Gomez n 8 | 46.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | — |
| H. Camberos n 8 | 40.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gutierrez n 8 | 57.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| J. Carrillo n 8 | 41.5 | 3 | 1.6 |
| K. Castaneda n 8 | 24 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| E. Alvarez n 8 | 36.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| B. Gonzalez n 8 | 65.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Á. Sepúlveda n 8 | 42.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| B. Gonzalez n 8 | 65.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| R. Marin n 8 | 76.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Santiago Sandoval n 8 | 56.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| J. Carrillo n 8 | 41.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Gomez n 8 | 46.9 | 3.8 |
| R. González n 8 | 70.6 | 2.9 |
| H. Camberos n 8 | 40.1 | 2.2 |
| D. Aguirre n 8 | 83.1 | 1.8 |
| L. Romo n 8 | 76.8 | 1.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Óscar Whalley n 8 | 90 | 3.2 |
| R. Rangel n 8 | 90 | 2.9 |
Necaxa
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Pedraza n 8 | 70.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | — |
| J. Carranza n 8 | 85.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | — |
| R. Monreal n 8 | 51.9 | 2 | 2 | — |
| M. Pedroza n 4 | 11.3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| J. Ruiz n 8 | 59.8 | 1.9 | 4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Carranza n 8 | 85.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| E. Rodriguez n 8 | 48.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Juan Torres n 8 | 34.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Owen de Jesús González Ojeda n 8 | 65.3 | 2.2 | 1 |
| J. Valencia n 6 | 30.7 | 2 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Pedroza n 4 | 11.3 | 2 | 0 |
| J. Carranza n 8 | 85.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Owen de Jesús González Ojeda n 8 | 65.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| J. Valencia n 6 | 30.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| M. Espindola n 8 | 59.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| C. Vargas n 8 | 62.1 | 4.7 |
| R. Cortéz n 8 | 26 | 2.2 |
| Kaiky Naves n 8 | 79.9 | 2.1 |
| E. Rodriguez n 8 | 48.9 | 2.1 |
| R. Monreal n 8 | 51.9 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Jiménez n 8 | 90 | 3.8 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-23 Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas
- 2025-09-24 Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Necaxa
- 2025-01-18 Necaxa 3–2 Guadalajara Chivas
- 2024-10-23 Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 Necaxa
- 2024-02-21 Necaxa 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas
- 2023-07-14 Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Necaxa
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa is Home win (best price 1.36 at William Hill).
- What is the head-to-head record between Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa?
- In their last 6 meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 3, Necaxa won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa?
- Recent form — Guadalajara Chivas 1W 3D 1L; Necaxa 0W 1D 4L.
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