Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas result

Full-time · Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Liga MX · · Estadio Nemesio Díez

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toluca · U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas — this Liga MX match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 636 times (65.9%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →

Next for Toluca: Toluca v Club Tijuana, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX
  • Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez · Toluca de Lerdo
  • Referee: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Toluca 1 · draws 4 · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Toluca 4W 1D 0L · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1W 2D 2L

Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas (Liga MX): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.25
Goals
against 0.63 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.2 / 4.25
Corners
against 4.6 / 4 · 0 of the last 3 over 9.5
over 4 matches
7.6 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 2.6 / 4 · 3 of the last 3 over 8.5
over 4 matches
2.8 / 1.75
Cards
against 2.2 / 2.75 · 2 of the last 3 over 3.5
over 4 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameToluca for / againstLineU.N.A.M. - Pumas for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 0.63 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.2 for · 4.6 against n 5
9.5standard
4.25 for · 4 against n 4
Shots
15.4 for · 8.2 against n 5
19.5standard
13.75 for · 13.25 against n 4
Shots on target
7.6 for · 2.6 against n 5
8.5standard
4.75 for · 4 against n 4
Fouls committed
12.8 for · 12.2 against n 5
21.5standard
11.25 for · 10 against n 4
Cards shown
2.8 for · 2.2 against n 5
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.75 against n 4

Referee: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico.

Toluca
Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Morales n 823
4.44/3
23/1
—
F. Arce n 846.5
2.75/4
0.52/0
—
Marcel Ruíz n 888.4
1.97/4
2.47/6
—
Paulinho n 883.3
1.95/4
1.25/3
—
F. Romero n 868.5
1.87/3
0.32/0
—
Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Helinho n 841.9
2.75/3
1.95/2
A. Vega n 887.3
2.47/6
1.56/4
Paulinho n 883.3
2.37/5
1.46/3
N. Castro n 829.9
1.94/1
0.82/0
I. López n 837.3
1.54/1
1.54/1
Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Vega n 887.3
0.42/1
0.43/0
Paulinho n 883.3
0.85/1
00/0
J. Angulo n 873.3
0.32/0
0.32/0
Marcel Ruíz n 888.4
00/0
0.43/0
Helinho n 841.9
00/0
0.31/0
Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Arce n 846.5
4.16/4
D. Barbosa n 876.3
3.78/5
Marcel Ruíz n 888.4
3.28/8
H. Herrera n 847
2.65/3
F. Pereira n 890
2.45/5
Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Garcia n 891
1.74/1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. Pussetto n 844.1
2.55/5
2.88/3
—
P. Quispe n 834.5
25/1
0.72/0
—
J. Caicedo n 890
1.86/6
1.15/3
—
S. Trigos n 871.8
1.75/3
1.14/2
—
L. Suárez n 858.4
1.55/3
2.36/3
—
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Pussetto n 844.1
3.36/5
1.34/1
Jorge Ruvalcaba n 858.4
2.15/4
1.24/2
L. Suárez n 858.4
1.95/4
13/2
G. Martínez n 864.4
1.74/4
1.44/2
A. Carrasquilla n 868.6
1.66/3
14/1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Carrasquilla n 868.6
0.73/1
0.21/0
L. Suárez n 858.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
G. Martínez n 864.4
0.53/0
00/0
I. Pussetto n 844.1
0.52/0
00/0
R. Ergas n 877.9
0.11/0
0.32/0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Ergas n 877.9
2.97/7
P. Quispe n 834.5
2.65/2
Rubén Duarte n 876.5
2.17/4
P. Monroy n 865.3
1.75/3
R. López n 841.1
1.63/2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 12 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Navas n 891.3
4.87/4
Álex Padilla n 890
2.46/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TolucaWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
U.N.A.M. - PumasLDWLD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Toluca 1 · 4 draws · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2025-01-30 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca
  • 2024-10-06 Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2024-03-18 Toluca 3–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2023-08-19 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca
  • 2023-04-16 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–1 Toluca
  • 2022-09-11 Toluca 2–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
League standing · 2025
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Toluca#5 pos30 pts17 pl+12 GD
U.N.A.M. - Pumas#1 pos36 pts17 pl+17 GD
Goals per game
Toluca scored1.65
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scored2
Toluca conceded0.94
U.N.A.M. - Pumas conceded1

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
In their last 6 meetings, Toluca won 1, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 1 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Toluca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Recent form — Toluca 4W 1D 0L; U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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