Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas result

Full-time · Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Liga MX · · Estadio Nemesio Diez

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toluca · U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas — U.N.A.M. - Pumas won this Liga MX match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1559 landed (95% range 73.1–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2–1 at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Liga MX on Wednesday 22 July. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Toluca out-shot U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 to 8 and created the better chances, 1.21 xG to 0.66 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas came from behind: Toluca led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Toluca: J. Diaz (14’, assisted by Helinho); U.N.A.M. - Pumas: V. Arteaga (57’, assisted by R. Morales) and S. Cordova (63’, assisted by R. López).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with S. Cordova’s goal on 63 minutes.

Discipline

V. Caceres showed two yellow cards — against 2.7 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Toluca: Helinho (17’); U.N.A.M. - Pumas: R. López (80’).

What it changes

Toluca move down from third to fourth (shared) (two league matches played).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas move up from 18th to 10th (two league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, V. Arteaga (U.N.A.M. - Pumas) 10.5, Helinho (Toluca) 7.0 and P. Vite (U.N.A.M. - Pumas) 6.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Toluca or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1174 of 1559).

Next up

Toluca next host Club Tijuana on 22 October 2026.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas next travel to Santos Laguna on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Toluca: Toluca v Club Tijuana, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Santos Laguna v U.N.A.M. - Pumas, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX
  • Venue: Estadio Nemesio Diez · Toluca
  • Referee: V. Caceres
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Toluca 2 · draws 4 · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Toluca 2W 1D 2L · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1W 1D 3L

Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas (Liga MX): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 August 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5.14 / 4.5
Corners
against 4.57 / 7.5 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 6 matches
5.43 / 2.67
Shots on target
against 5.14 / 4.83 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 6 matches
2.29 / 2.17
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.33 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 6 matches
2.67 yellows
Referee · V. Caceres
1.58 home / 1.08 away
over 12 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 July 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameToluca for / againstLineU.N.A.M. - Pumas for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
3our book
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.14 for · 4.57 against n 7
9.5standard
4.5 for · 7.5 against n 6
Shots
14.14 for · 13.71 against n 7
19.5standard
9.17 for · 17.5 against n 6
Shots on target
5.43 for · 5.14 against n 7
8.5standard
2.67 for · 4.83 against n 6
Fouls committed
14.43 for · 12.86 against n 7
21.5standard
11.5 for · 8 against n 6
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
2.17 for · 1.33 against n 6

Referee: V. Caceres — 2.67 yellow cards a game, 0.08 red cards, 17.08 fouls over 12 matches (1.58 to the home side, 1.08 to the away side).

Toluca
Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Rossi n 835.8
2.56/2
1.64/1
—
M. Isais n 844.8
2.34/3
0.52/0
—
Paulinho n 873.4
25/4
1.46/3
—
A. Alvarez n 839.1
26/1
25/2
—
J. Gallardo n 872.1
1.97/3
0.52/1
—
Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Rossi n 835.8
3.54/3
0.92/1
Helinho n 859.8
38/4
1.13/2
N. Castro n 857.8
2.98/5
1.88/1
Paulinho n 873.4
2.86/4
1.23/3
P. Perez n 871.3
2.25/4
0.53/0
Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Paulinho n 873.4
0.93/2
0.21/0
A. Vega n 851.9
0.21/0
0.73/0
N. Castro n 857.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
F. Arce n 853.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
J. Diaz n 852.1
0.42/0
0.21/0
Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Barbosa n 865.3
3.66/6
Marcel Ruíz n 862.4
3.15/5
Santiago Simón n 874.1
2.77/6
F. Arce n 853.1
2.56/4
Everardo López n 884.4
2.47/4
Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Garcia n 893.8
3.56/5
H. Gonzalez n 890.5
2.26/3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Juninho n 869.1
25/3
0.84/1
—
C. Calderón n 857.1
25/3
26/3
—
S. Trigos n 836.9
1.84/2
0.62/0
—
Á. Rico n 812.9
1.72/0
00/0
—
U. Rivas n 829.5
1.53/1
1.13/0
—
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Á. Rico n 812.9
2.63/0
1.72/0
G. Martínez n 837.3
2.14/2
1.22/1
S. Cordova n 839.9
26/1
0.83/0
A. Carrasquilla n 871
1.46/2
0.32/0
R. Morales n 888.5
1.37/2
0.53/1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Martínez n 837.3
0.62/0
00/0
R. Morales n 888.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
U. Antuna n 869.6
0.32/0
0.21/0
Juninho n 869.1
0.21/0
0.32/0
J. Carrillo n 867.8
0.32/0
00/0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Medina n 870.4
36/3
P. Vite n 885.3
2.88/5
J. Carrillo n 867.8
2.26/4
Á. Angulo n 887
2.16/4
U. Antuna n 869.6
2.17/5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Navas n 890.9
4.58/7

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TolucaU.N.A.M. - Pumas
66%Possession34%
1.21Expected goals (xG)0.66
17Shots8
4Shots on target3
5Shots off target4
8Blocked shots1
11Shots inside the box4
9Corners1
0Offsides2
4Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Saves3
576Passes306
85%Pass accuracy76%

Toluca player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
H. Gonzalez9000000007.2
Bruno Mendez9000000106.7
Luan9000000006.5
F. Arce9000101306.9
Helinho90014141Y7.2
J. Diaz9010111007.7
D. Barbosa8600000706.3
B. García7600001106.7
V. Guzmán6600001006.9
J. Angulo6600110006.3
A. Vega6600001106.7
J. Gallardo sub2400001006.9
F. Romero sub2400000006.9
N. Castro sub2400100006.9
Carlos Carrillo sub1400111006.2
Santiago Simón sub1100000006.3

U.N.A.M. - Pumas player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Navas9000000006.9
Nathan Silva9000000107
Rubén Duarte9000000106.7
Á. Angulo9000000206.9
R. López90012022Y6.9
P. Vite9000000307.3
V. Arteaga9010211308
U. Antuna8900111006.5
R. Morales8901102206.6
Juninho8800001306.9
P. Bennevendo4500000006.7
S. Cordova sub4510110107.5
A. Medina sub900000006.7
T. Leone sub10000000–
G. Martínez sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TolucaLWLDW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
U.N.A.M. - PumasLWDLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Toluca 2 · 4 draws · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-03-04 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–3 Toluca
  • 2025-08-17 Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2025-01-30 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca
  • 2024-10-06 Toluca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2024-03-18 Toluca 3–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2023-08-19 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Toluca
League standing · 2026
Toluca#2 pos21 pts12 pl+10 GD
U.N.A.M. - Pumas#11 pos16 pts12 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Toluca scored2.17
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scored1.58
Toluca conceded1.33
U.N.A.M. - Pumas conceded1.67

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
In their last 6 meetings, Toluca won 2, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 0 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Toluca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
Recent form — Toluca 2W 1D 2L; U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1W 1D 3L.

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