Le Mans v Toulouse prediction

The match

Le Mans host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Friday 16 October (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Le Mans have scored in 10 consecutive matches.

Form and the table

Nine of Le Mans’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Le Mans’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Le Mans have four wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 7 home matches — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 0.86. Le Mans have scored 10 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Le Mans have conceded 12 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Toulouse are unbeaten in their last three matches. 11 of Toulouse’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Toulouse’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Toulouse have one win, four draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches — 0.88 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 2.13. Toulouse have scored nine goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Toulouse have conceded 11 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs.

Le Mans (14th) and Toulouse (15th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Toulouse the stronger side, 78 rating points above Le Mans (Toulouse 1617, Le Mans 1539, after at least six rated matches each).

Team news

Le Mans have three names on the availability list: A. Bourabaa (out, Ankle Injury), E. Colas (out, Injury) and M. Rossignol (out, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-14. Predicted Le Mans XI (3-1-4-2): N. Kocik, H. Voyer, N. Boissé, S. Yohou, R. Bamba, A. Lauray, L. Calodat, J. Vercruysse, L. Bretelle, L. Mafouta, D. Guèye — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, A. Bourabaa (6.1 per match over five appearances, three goals and two assists) and Louis Mafouta (4.1 per match over six appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Le Mans’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Le Mans (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Bourabaa averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 398 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last five appearances. Louis Mafouta averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 495 minutes, with a shot in six of the last six appearances.

Toulouse have one name on the availability list: J. Vignolo (out, Inactive) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-14. Predicted Toulouse XI (4-2-3-1): G. Restes, M. McKenzie, C. Tape, S. Koumbassa, R. Nicolaisen, C. Cásseres, T. Jørgensen, Y. Azizi, A. Vossah, N. Schmidt, J. Russell-Rowe — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, C. Cásseres (8.1 per match over six appearances, four assists) and Casper Tengstedt (5.8 per match over four appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Toulouse’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Toulouse (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), C. Cásseres averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 856 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.