Saint Etienne v Nantes prediction

Ligue 2 · · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Saint Etienne vs Nantes, Ligue 2 on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 19:00 BST.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 195 landed (95% range 71.1–82.7%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Saint Etienne host Nantes in Ligue 2 on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 19:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Saint Etienne to win.

The key numbers

Saint Etienne have scored in 10 consecutive matches. Saint Etienne have scored 22 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Form and the table

Saint Etienne are unbeaten in their last three matches. 11 of Saint Etienne’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in seven of Saint Etienne’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Saint Etienne have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches — 2.13 points per game, scoring 2.13 and conceding 0.63. Saint Etienne have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Eight of Nantes’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Nantes’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Nantes have one win, one draw and five defeats in their last 7 away matches — 0.57 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.86. Nantes have scored 11 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Nantes have conceded 16 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Saint Etienne (first) and Nantes (14th) are 14 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Saint Etienne the stronger side, 398 rating points above Nantes (Saint Etienne 1761, Nantes 1362, after at least nine rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Saint Etienne are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Nantes. The most recent meeting, on 19 January 2025, finished Saint Etienne 1–1 Nantes.

Team news

Predicted Saint Etienne XI (4-2-3-1): G. Larsonneur, S. Nair, K. Pedro, J. Le Cardinal, B. Old, Á. Csongvai, A. Boakye, T. Ballo, T. Svetlin, M. Bernauer, I. Cardona — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Boakye (5.9 per match over nine appearances, five goals and three assists) and I. Cardona (4.5 per match over nine appearances, five goals and four assists) have been Saint Etienne’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Saint Etienne (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Boakye averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 722 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last nine appearances. I. Cardona averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 914 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Nantes XI (4-1-4-1): M. Dupé, L. Perrin, K. Amian, S. Sow, F. Guilbert, J. Lepenant, I. Sissoko, M. Cafaro, R. Hachem, W. Younoussa, T. Robinet — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bahereba Guirassy (3.7 per match over four appearances, one goal and one assist) and W. Younoussa (3.5 per match over seven appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Nantes’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Nantes (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bahereba Guirassy averages 3.2 shots per 90 over 416 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last eight appearances. W. Younoussa averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 386 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Ligue 2 · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Saint Etienne 0 · draws 5 · Nantes 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Saint Etienne 3W 1D 1L · Nantes 2W 1D 2L

TACTIX runs Saint Etienne v Nantes (Ligue 2) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.38 / 1.38
Goals
against 1 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.5 / 5.88
Corners
against 3.88 / 3.5 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6 / 3.63
Shots on target
against 2.88 / 3.63 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 1.75
Cards
against 2 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSaint Etienne for / againstLineNantes for / against
Goals scored
2.38 for · 1 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
4.5 for · 3.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
13.75 for · 7.38 against n 8
19.5standard
15.13 for · 10.13 against n 8
Shots on target
6 for · 2.88 against n 8
8.5standard
3.63 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
16.88 for · 15.38 against n 8
21.5standard
16.5 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Adam Baallal n 511
6.54/0
00/0
—
J. Duffus n 820.4
55/3
3.95/1
—
T. Ballo n 865.5
3.88/6
1.44/3
—
João Ferreira n 844.5
2.56/4
1.85/2
—
M. Jaber n 855.9
2.27/3
1.45/2
—
Saint Etienne — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Duffus n 820.4
3.33/2
1.72/1
A. Boakye n 884.6
2.38/7
0.75/0
T. Ballo n 865.5
2.27/4
1.46/2
J. Breum n 862.5
26/4
1.15/1
I. Cardona n 879.1
1.87/4
0.63/1
Saint Etienne — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Breum n 862.5
0.42/0
0.94/1
T. Ballo n 865.5
0.94/1
0.21/0
A. Boakye n 884.6
0.75/0
0.32/0
I. Cardona n 879.1
0.32/0
0.42/1
J. Duffus n 820.4
0.61/0
00/0
Saint Etienne — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Adam Baallal n 511
8.22/1
M. Jaber n 855.9
5.27/4
K. Pedro n 885.8
3.17/6
A. Boakye n 884.6
2.88/7
T. Ballo n 865.5
2.68/5
Saint Etienne — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Mamour Ndiaye n 879.9
3.25/5
G. Larsonneur n 889.8
1.84/2
Nantes
Nantes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Louis Leroux n 821.8
2.64/1
3.13/1
—
Bahereba Guirassy n 852
2.44/3
1.33/2
—
B. Deuff n 844.1
2.35/2
1.53/2
—
B. Pierret n 861.1
2.26/4
1.56/2
—
W. Younoussa n 858.1
2.16/4
2.96/3
—
Nantes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Bahereba Guirassy n 852
3.28/4
1.55/2
T. Robinet n 885.6
2.98/7
1.15/1
I. Ganago n 849.8
2.96/4
0.72/1
K. Corredor n 873.5
27/5
1.15/2
W. Younoussa n 858.1
1.96/3
0.41/1
Nantes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Joujou n 811.6
11/0
00/0
W. Younoussa n 858.1
0.41/1
0.42/0
Bahereba Guirassy n 852
0.21/0
0.42/0
T. Robinet n 885.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
K. Corredor n 873.5
0.31/1
00/0
Nantes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Centonze n 856.1
4.27/4
B. Deuff n 844.1
3.36/5
A. Joujou n 811.6
2.91/1
B. Pierret n 861.1
2.85/4
J. Lepenant n 874.3
2.76/5
Nantes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
P. Carlgren n 875.5
3.35/4
M. Dupé n 890
1.64/2

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Saint Etienne v Nantes — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Saint EtienneWLDWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
NantesWLWDL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Saint Etienne 0 · 5 draws · Nantes 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-01-19 Saint Etienne 1–1 Nantes
  • 2024-09-29 Nantes 2–2 Saint Etienne
  • 2022-05-21 Nantes 1–1 Saint Etienne
  • 2021-12-22 Saint Etienne 0–1 Nantes
  • 2021-02-03 Saint Etienne 1–1 Nantes
  • 2020-09-20 Nantes 2–2 Saint Etienne
League standing · 2026/27
Saint Etienne#1 pos22 pts9 pl+14 GD
Nantes#14 pos8 pts9 pl-5 GD
Goals per game
Saint Etienne scored2.44
Nantes scored1.22
Saint Etienne conceded0.89
Nantes conceded1.78

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Saint Etienne v Nantes is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
In their last 6 meetings, Saint Etienne won 0, Nantes won 1 and there were 5 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Recent form — Saint Etienne 3W 1D 1L; Nantes 2W 1D 2L.

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