Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga prediction

NM Cupen · · Sarpsborg Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sarpsborg 08 FF · Valerenga · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga, NM Cupen on Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 630 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sarpsborg 08 FF host Valerenga in NM Cupen on Wednesday 28 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

12 of Valerenga’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

Form and the table

10 of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.57.

Both teams scored in 11 of Valerenga’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Valerenga have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 2.71.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sarpsborg 08 FF the stronger side, 131 rating points above Valerenga (Sarpsborg 08 FF 2082, Valerenga 1952, after at least 22 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Valerenga are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Sarpsborg 08 FF. The most recent meeting, on 6 September 2026, finished Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Valerenga.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · NM Cupen · Sarpsborg Stadion
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 · draws 2 · Valerenga 2 · 3.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W 2D 2L · Valerenga 1W 2D 2L

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga (NM Cupen): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 2
Goals
against 1.88 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.13 / 7.25
Corners
against 6.63 / 6.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.5 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 5.75 / 5.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.88 / 1 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSarpsborg 08 FF for / againstLineValerenga for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5standard
2 for · 2.38 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 6.63 against n 8
9.5standard
7.25 for · 6.75 against n 8
Shots
15.75 for · 16.13 against n 8
19.5standard
18.25 for · 15.38 against n 8
Shots on target
5.5 for · 5.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 5.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.13 for · 12.13 against n 8
21.5standard
10.88 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1 against n 8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Camil Mmaee n 313.3
4.52/0
00/0
—
M. Opoku n 838.3
2.15/2
1.23/1
—
Daniel Karlsbakk n 890
1.96/5
1.56/2
—
V. Halvorsen n 843.3
1.85/2
00/0
—
Sondre Sörli n 880.1
1.77/4
0.83/2
—
Sarpsborg 08 FF — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Camil Mmaee n 313.3
4.52/0
2.31/0
Camil Mmaee n 363
2.92/2
2.42/2
M. Opoku n 838.3
2.64/3
0.62/0
Daniel Karlsbakk n 890
2.45/5
1.35/3
Noa Williams n 840.4
2.25/3
0.83/0
Sarpsborg 08 FF — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Sondre Sörli n 880.1
0.43/0
0.32/0
Noa Williams n 840.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
Daniel Karlsbakk n 890
0.32/0
00/0
O. Skarsem n 881.1
0.32/0
00/0
V. Halvorsen n 843.3
00/0
0.31/0
Sarpsborg 08 FF — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Eirik Wichne n 837.1
4.26/5
Andreas Hansen n 849.1
2.35/3
V. Halvorsen n 843.3
2.37/1
O. Skarsem n 881.1
2.27/5
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen n 850.6
26/3
Sarpsborg 08 FF — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Leander Øy n 890
4.36/5
Valerenga
Valerenga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
O. Saeter n 831.5
3.25/4
0.41/0
—
Ambina Fidèle Brice n 863.1
35/4
1.44/3
—
Kevin Tshiembe n 823.3
2.43/1
00/0
—
Magnus Westergaard n 859.3
2.36/3
1.14/1
—
Gabriel Rajkovic n 829.9
2.35/1
1.53/1
—
Valerenga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
O. Sæter n 819.8
4.65/3
1.73/0
Lucas Haren n 879
3.38/6
26/3
Mathias Grundetjern n 877.4
3.18/7
1.65/3
O. Saeter n 831.5
2.94/3
00/0
M. Ofkir n 857.6
25/3
0.83/1
Valerenga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Ofkir n 857.6
0.83/1
0.41/1
Gabriel Rajkovic n 829.9
0.82/0
0.41/0
Henrik Bjørdal n 865.8
0.32/0
0.53/0
Lucas Haren n 879
0.63/1
0.11/0
Mathias Grundetjern n 877.4
0.42/1
0.32/0
Valerenga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Odin Thiago Holm n 826.6
3.83/2
Ambina Fidèle Brice n 863.1
3.77/5
Hakon Sjatil n 874.3
3.57/6
Magnus Westergaard n 859.3
37/5
Henrik Bjørdal n 865.8
2.96/6
Valerenga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Oscar Hedvall n 890
3.16/4

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sarpsborg 08 FFDDLWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
ValerengaDLDLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 · 2 draws · Valerenga 2 · 3.67 goals/game
  • 2026-09-06 Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Valerenga
  • 2026-05-16 Valerenga 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF
  • 2025-08-17 Valerenga 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF
  • 2025-04-06 Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 Valerenga
  • 2023-11-05 Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–2 Valerenga
  • 2023-04-16 Valerenga 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Goals per game
Sarpsborg 08 FF scored1.6
Valerenga scored1.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded2.2
Valerenga conceded1.6

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
In their last 6 meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2, Valerenga won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Recent form — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W 2D 2L; Valerenga 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
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