Aston Villa v Brighton prediction

Premier League · · Villa Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Aston Villa · Brighton · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Brighton, Premier League on Sat, 10 Apr 2027 15:00 BST posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Aston Villa host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday 10 April (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Brighton have scored 23 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Aston Villa have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Brighton have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

12 of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in nine of Aston Villa’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Aston Villa have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5 home matches in all competitions — 1.40 points per game, scoring 2.60 and conceding 1.40. Aston Villa have scored seven goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Aston Villa have conceded 11 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs.

11 of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in four of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Brighton have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.43. Brighton have conceded five goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Brighton have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions. Aston Villa (12th) and Brighton (third) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Brighton the stronger side, 235 rating points above Aston Villa (Brighton 1874, Aston Villa 1640, after at least 273 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 23 August 2026, finished Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa.

Team news

Predicted Aston Villa XI (4-2-3-1): Z. Suzuki, V. Lindelöf, M. Cash, T. Mings, I. Maatsen, B. Kamara, J. McGinn, E. Buendía, R. Barkley, G. Hemmings, N. Jackson — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Johan Manzambi (5.5 per match over six appearances, three goals and two assists) and Nicolas Jackson (4.5 per match over nine appearances, five goals) have been Aston Villa’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Aston Villa (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Johan Manzambi averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1023 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Nicolas Jackson averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 1008 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Brighton XI (4-2-3-1): B. Verbruggen, L. Vušković, F. Kadıoğlu, O. Boscagli, L. Dunk, D. Gómez, P. Groß, M. De Cuyper, Y. Ayari, J. Baixauli, C. Kostoulas — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mats Wieffer (5.8 per match over four appearances, one goal) and Pascal Groß (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and four assists) have been Brighton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Brighton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mats Wieffer averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 362 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last five appearances. Pascal Groß averages 3.9 key passes per 90 over 1026 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier League · Villa Park
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Brighton 2 · 3.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L · Brighton 5W 0D 0L

Aston Villa v Brighton (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.38 / 3.25
Goals
against 1.13 / 0.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 6.38
Corners
against 4.25 / 4.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.38 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 3.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2.25
Cards
against 3.38 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAston Villa for / againstLineBrighton for / against
Goals scored
2.38 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
3.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 4.25 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
16.13 for · 15.88 against n 8
19.5standard
19.63 for · 10.63 against n 8
Shots on target
6.38 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 3.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 14.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.88 for · 9.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 3.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 1 against n 8
Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
João Gomes n 870.5
2.77/5
1.47/1
—
M. Cash n 875.9
2.17/4
0.74/1
—
R. Barkley n 849
2.14/3
1.13/1
—
B. Kamara n 884.4
1.97/4
2.35/5
—
George Hemmings n 870.5
1.97/5
1.13/2
—
Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Mbaye n 841.6
3.56/4
1.44/1
N. Jackson n 872.3
3.47/5
1.76/4
J. Manzambi n 870.5
2.98/6
1.87/3
R. Barkley n 849
2.35/3
1.44/2
E. Buendía n 868.5
27/4
0.72/2
Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Abraham n 824.8
1.42/1
00/0
R. Barkley n 849
0.72/1
0.52/0
Alysson Edward n 823.1
0.51/0
0.51/0
J. Manzambi n 870.5
0.64/0
0.32/0
N. Jackson n 872.3
0.84/1
00/0
Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Garnacho n 822.8
4.54/2
João Gomes n 870.5
3.26/5
E. Buendía n 868.5
35/3
A. Wan-Bissaka n 864.3
37/6
M. Cash n 875.9
2.75/5
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 878.8
3.97/5
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.87/5
Brighton
Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
José María Andrés Baixauli n 860.5
2.47/5
0.73/1
—
M. Svoboda n 869
2.36/3
0.73/1
—
P. David n 829.3
2.34/2
0.82/0
—
J. Hadjam n 848.6
1.94/3
0.94/0
—
L. Vušković n 878.8
1.76/3
15/1
—
Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. David n 829.3
4.65/3
0.82/0
C. Kostoulas n 866
3.16/5
1.25/2
J. Hinshelwood n 860.5
37/4
2.27/3
M. O'Riley n 834.8
2.34/2
12/1
I. Osman n 846.6
2.24/3
0.72/1
Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Rutter n 840.6
0.61/1
0.83/0
J. Hinshelwood n 860.5
1.15/1
00/0
P. Groß n 883.5
0.54/0
0.53/1
C. Kostoulas n 866
0.74/0
0.32/0
P. David n 829.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Gómez n 880.3
3.17/5
J. Hadjam n 848.6
2.57/3
M. De Cuyper n 864.9
2.47/3
M. Wieffer n 864.4
2.35/5
M. Svoboda n 869
26/3
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Jason Steele n 890
3.66/4
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.35/3

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Aston Villa v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Aston VillaWWDWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3 scored / 1 conceded per game
BrightonWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.4 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Aston Villa 3 · 1 draw · Brighton 2 · 3.33 goals/game
  • 2026-08-23 Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa
  • 2026-02-11 Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton
  • 2025-12-03 Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa
  • 2025-04-02 Brighton 0–3 Aston Villa
  • 2024-12-30 Aston Villa 2–2 Brighton
  • 2024-05-05 Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa
League standing · 2026/27
Aston Villa#12 pos8 pts7 pl-4 GD
Brighton#3 pos16 pts7 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Aston Villa scored1
Brighton scored3.29
Aston Villa conceded1.57
Brighton conceded0.71

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Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brighton?
In their last 6 meetings, Aston Villa won 3, Brighton won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Brighton?
Recent form — Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L; Brighton 5W 0D 0L.

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