Newcastle v Liverpool result

Full-time · Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool

Premier League · Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:00 BST · St. James' Park

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Newcastle · Liverpool · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool — Liverpool won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 624 landed (95% range 62.1–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 638 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Newcastle: 1.96 to 0.65 in expected goals, from 10 shots to 5, ahead on xG from the 16th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Liverpool won 3–2 at St. James' Park in the Premier League on Monday 25 August. Liverpool have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Liverpool led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Liverpool: Ryan Gravenberch (35’, assisted by Cody Gakpo), H. Ekitike (46’, assisted by Cody Gakpo) and Rio Ngumoha (90’, assisted by Mohamed Salah); Newcastle: Bruno Guimarães (57’, assisted by T. Livramento) and William Osula (88’). Anthony Gordon (45’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Rio Ngumoha’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

S. Hooper showed five yellow cards and one red — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Newcastle: D. Burn (44’) and Bruno Guimarães (47’); Liverpool: Ryan Gravenberch (8’), Ibrahima Konaté (25’) and C. Bradley (87’).

What it changes

Newcastle move down from second to 15th (two league matches played).

Liverpool move down from first to third (two league matches played).

Newcastle are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) 8.9, T. Livramento (Newcastle) 6.1 and Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) 5.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Newcastle next travel to Crystal Palace on 25 October 2026.

Liverpool next host Brighton on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Newcastle: Crystal Palace v Newcastle, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for Liverpool: Liverpool v Brighton, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool · Premier League
Venue: St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
Referee: S. Hooper
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Newcastle 1 · draws 1 · Liverpool 4 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Newcastle 1W 2D 2L · Liverpool 1W 3D 1L

Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 2.25

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.75 · 0 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.75 / 6.5

Corners

against 4.75 / 2.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5 / 6

Shots on target

against 3.88 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.75

Cards

against 2.88 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.38 yellows

Referee · S. Hooper

1.25 home / 2.13 away

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Newcastle for / against	Line	Liverpool for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.75 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.5 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.5 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	17.63 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.13 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.25 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Hooper — 3.38 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 20.75 fouls over 8 matches (1.25 to the home side, 2.13 to the away side).

Home 1.25Away 2.13

Newcastle

Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Bruno Guimarães n 8	87.6	2.6 8/5	1.8 7/4	R. Gravenberch
W. Osula n 8	23.3	2.4 4/1	2.9 1/1	—
J. Willock n 8	35.9	2.2 6/1	0.6 2/0	—
C. Wilson n 8	24	1.9 4/0	0.9 2/0	—
Joelinton n 8	83.4	1.8 7/2	1.9 7/4	R. Gravenberch

Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Isak n 8	80.5	3.2 8/7	1.5 7/3
W. Osula n 8	23.3	2.9 4/1	1.5 2/1
A. Gordon n 8	50	1.8 5/2	0.7 2/1
F. Schär n 8	88	1.7 6/4	0.5 3/1
A. Elanga n 8	77.1	1.6 6/4	1.3 5/3

Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
W. Osula n 8	23.3	0.5 1/0	1 1/1
J. Murphy n 8	60.6	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0
A. Isak n 8	80.5	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
A. Elanga n 8	77.1	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
K. Trippier n 8	77	0 0/0	0.4 2/1

Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Miley n 8	23.3	3.9 4/3
J. Willock n 8	35.9	2.8 5/2
Bruno Guimarães n 8	87.6	2.2 7/4
S. Botman n 8	51.1	2.2 5/3
Joelinton n 8	83.4	2 6/6

Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Pope n 8	90	3 6/6

Liverpool

Liverpool — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
W. Endo n 8	22.6	2.5 3/2	0.5 1/0	—
Diogo Jota n 8	36.4	2.2 3/2	1.2 3/1	—
A. Mac Allister n 8	61.3	2 7/3	1.3 6/1	—
D. Szoboszlai n 8	69.3	1.8 4/4	0.6 3/1	—
R. Gravenberch n 8	86.4	1.3 7/2	1.8 7/4	Joelinton

Liverpool — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Ekitike n 8	84.1	2.9 8/6	1.5 7/3
Harvey Elliott n 8	33	2.7 4/2	1 2/1
Diogo Jota n 8	36.4	2.5 6/1	0.3 1/0
C. Gakpo n 8	77.1	2.2 7/5	1.2 5/2
Mohamed Salah n 8	90	2.1 7/5	1 6/2

Liverpool — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Díaz n 8	76.3	0.7 5/0	0.3 1/1
A. Mac Allister n 8	61.3	0.4 2/0	0.6 3/0
H. Ekitike n 8	84.1	0.4 3/0	0.5 4/0
D. Szoboszlai n 8	69.3	0.2 1/0	0.6 3/1
F. Chiesa n 8	38.1	0.6 2/0	0 0/0

Liverpool — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Mac Allister n 8	61.3	3.5 5/5
W. Endo n 8	22.6	3.5 4/2
K. Tsimikas n 8	61.8	3.3 6/5
F. Chiesa n 8	38.1	2.7 5/2
D. Szoboszlai n 8	69.3	2.6 7/4

Liverpool — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Alisson Becker n 8	90	3.4 6/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Newcastle		Liverpool
38%	Possession	62%
0.98	Expected goals (xG)	0.69
10	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots off target	0
3	Blocked shots	1
8	Shots inside the box	3
7	Corners	1
17	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
1	Saves	1
248	Passes	446
69%	Pass accuracy	83%

Newcastle player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
N. Pope	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Burn	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	Y	5.9
T. Livramento	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
Bruno Guimarães	90	1	0	1	1	0	3	Y	7.2
A. Elanga	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
F. Schär	81	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.3
K. Trippier	76	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
Joelinton	76	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
H. Barnes	76	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.3
S. Tonali	66	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Gordon	48	0	0	3	1	1	0	R	6.3
L. Miley sub	24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
Lewis Hall sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
J. Ramsey sub	14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.7
W. Osula sub	14	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.5
M. Thiaw sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Liverpool player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Alisson Becker	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
D. Szoboszlai	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
I. Konaté	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
V. van Dijk	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
M. Kerkez	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.5
R. Gravenberch	90	1	0	1	1	0	1	Y	7.2
C. Jones	89	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7
Mohamed Salah	89	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	6.2
C. Gakpo	89	0	2	0	0	2	3	0	7.5
F. Wirtz	80	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.3
H. Ekitike	80	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	7.3
C. Bradley sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
F. Chiesa sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Harvey Elliott sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Rio Ngumoha sub	8	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.7
W. Endo sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Newcastle v Liverpool — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

NewcastleDWLLD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 0.6 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

LiverpoolDLDDW

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 2.2 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Newcastle 1 · 1 draw · Liverpool 4 · 3.67 goals/game

2025-03-16 Liverpool 1–2 Newcastle
2025-02-26 Liverpool 2–0 Newcastle
2024-12-04 Newcastle 3–3 Liverpool
2024-01-01 Liverpool 4–2 Newcastle
2023-08-27 Newcastle 1–2 Liverpool
2023-02-18 Newcastle 0–2 Liverpool

League standing · 2025/26

Newcastle#12 pos49 pts38 pl-2 GD

Liverpool#5 pos60 pts38 pl+10 GD

Goals per game

Newcastle scored1.39

Liverpool scored1.66

Newcastle conceded1.45

Liverpool conceded1.39

Shot map and expected goals

Newcastle 1.96 xG from 10 shots, Liverpool 0.65 from 5. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Newcastle (attacking right)Liverpool (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Newcastle	10	2	1.96
Liverpool	5	3	0.65

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Newcastle v Liverpool?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Newcastle v Liverpool was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?: In their last 6 meetings, Newcastle won 1, Liverpool won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Newcastle and Liverpool?: Recent form — Newcastle 1W 2D 2L; Liverpool 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.