Sunderland v Leeds prediction

Premier League · · Stadium of Light

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sunderland · Leeds · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sunderland v Leeds, Premier League on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 636 times (65.9%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sunderland host Leeds in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 16:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Six of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Sunderland’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Sunderland have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.25. Sunderland have scored six goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Sunderland have conceded 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Six of Leeds’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in nine of Leeds’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Leeds have two wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.22 and conceding 1.78. Leeds have scored nine goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Leeds have conceded six goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Leeds are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Sunderland (20th) and Leeds (seventh) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Leeds the stronger side, 200 rating points above Sunderland (Leeds 1676, Sunderland 1476, after at least 45 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 March 2026, finished Leeds 0–1 Sunderland.

Team news

Predicted Sunderland XI (4-2-3-1): R. Roefs, N. Mukiele, Reinildo, D. Ballard, K. Danso, G. Xhaka, E. Le Fée, N. Sadiki, N. Angulo, T. Hume, B. Brobbey — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Jules Ahoka (4.5 per match over three appearances, one goal) and Enzo Le Fée (4.2 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Sunderland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sunderland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jules Ahoka averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 385 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last five appearances. Enzo Le Fée averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 732 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Leeds XI (3-4-2-1): J. Trafford, T. Muharemović, N. Elvedi, J. Justin, E. Ampadu, J. Bogle, A. Stach, G. Gudmundsson, A. Tanaka, N. Okafor, D. Calvert-Lewin — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, James Justin (4.9 per match over nine appearances, two goals) and Tarik Muharemović (4.2 per match over nine appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Leeds’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Leeds (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), James Justin averages 3.0 tackles per 90 over 799 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Tarik Muharemović averages 0.9 tackles per 90 over 1430 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier League · Stadium of Light
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sunderland 2 · draws 3 · Leeds 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sunderland 2W 0D 3L · Leeds 1W 2D 2L

Sunderland v Leeds (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.25 / 4.13
Corners
against 5.13 / 4 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 3.38 / 4.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 1.88
Cards
against 2 / 2.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSunderland for / againstLineLeeds for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5our book
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.25 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
14.13 for · 12.75 against n 8
19.5standard
13 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.13 for · 14.38 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 11.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 2.5 against n 8
Sunderland
Sunderland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
W. Isidor n 844.1
2.36/3
1.83/3
—
Dan Ballard n 875.1
1.96/4
1.67/4
—
Jules Ahoka n 769
1.95/2
1.55/2
—
B. Brobbey n 866.3
1.97/3
26/3
—
M. Fofana n 841
1.64/2
1.43/1
—
Sunderland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. T. Bi n 346
2.62/1
0.71/0
W. Isidor n 844.1
2.34/3
0.52/0
E. Le Fée n 881.5
2.26/4
0.74/1
Jules Ahoka n 769
1.74/3
0.41/1
M. Fofana n 841
1.64/1
1.12/1
Sunderland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Methalie n 859.3
0.42/0
0.21/0
C. Talbi n 841.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
B. Brobbey n 866.3
0.51/1
00/0
E. Le Fée n 881.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
Jules Ahoka n 769
0.21/0
0.21/0
Sunderland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Hume n 876.3
3.17/5
C. Rigg n 835.9
2.84/3
Jules Ahoka n 769
2.65/4
J. T. Bi n 346
2.63/1
N. Mukiele n 882.6
2.57/5
Sunderland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Ellborg n 890
3.46/5
R. Roefs n 890
1.64/2
Leeds
Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Stach n 863
2.36/4
0.93/2
—
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
2.36/3
1.24/2
—
A. Tanaka n 855.8
2.25/4
0.84/0
—
E. Ampadu n 890
26/5
0.53/1
—
S. Longstaff n 826.8
1.73/1
0.82/0
—
Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Tanaka n 855.8
2.25/4
0.42/0
D. James n 845.5
2.26/3
12/2
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
1.95/3
1.45/2
L. Nmecha n 830
1.94/1
00/0
S. Longstaff n 826.8
1.73/1
0.82/0
Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 858.3
0.63/0
0.21/0
L. Nmecha n 830
00/0
0.82/0
H. Wilson n 837
00/0
0.62/0
D. James n 845.5
0.52/0
00/0
T. Muharemović n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 888.6
2.78/6
A. Stach n 863
2.16/5
E. Ampadu n 890
1.97/5
A. Tanaka n 855.8
1.85/4
M. Bard n 867.6
1.75/3
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Zetterer n 890
4.38/5
J. Trafford n 890
3.48/5

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sunderland v Leeds — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SunderlandWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
LeedsLWDLD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sunderland 2 · 3 draws · Leeds 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2026-03-03 Leeds 0–1 Sunderland
  • 2025-12-28 Sunderland 1–1 Leeds
  • 2025-02-17 Leeds 2–1 Sunderland
  • 2024-10-04 Sunderland 2–2 Leeds
  • 2024-04-09 Leeds 0–0 Sunderland
  • 2023-12-12 Sunderland 1–0 Leeds
League standing · 2026/27
Sunderland#20 pos4 pts7 pl-8 GD
Leeds#7 pos10 pts7 pl+3 GD
Goals per game
Sunderland scored0.86
Leeds scored1.29
Sunderland conceded2
Leeds conceded0.86

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Sunderland v Leeds?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sunderland v Leeds is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Leeds?
In their last 6 meetings, Sunderland won 2, Leeds won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sunderland and Leeds?
Recent form — Sunderland 2W 0D 3L; Leeds 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s boards

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