Estrela v Casa Pia prediction

Primeira Liga ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Estrela · Casa Pia · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Estrela v Casa Pia, Primeira Liga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:30 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4599 landed (95% range 76.2–78.6%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Estrela host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 15:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Estrela or Casa Pia (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Casa Pia have scored three goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Form and the table

10 of Estrela’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Estrela’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Estrela have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.43. Estrela have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Estrela have conceded 15 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Four of Casa Pia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in four of Casa Pia’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Casa Pia have three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.38 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 0.75. Casa Pia have conceded 17 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Estrela (10th) and Casa Pia (17th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Estrela the stronger side, 109 rating points above Casa Pia (Estrela 1500, Casa Pia 1391, after at least 112 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia.

Team news

Predicted Estrela XI (4-2-3-1): L. Linck, R. Soares, S. Leković, M. Scholze, L. Patrick, L. Zvonarek, E. Doue, A. Marcus, I. Stoica, S. Serra, L. Antonetti — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Marcus (5.4 per match over eight appearances, four goals and one assist) and I. Stoica (4.8 per match over eight appearances, four goals and two assists) have been Estrela’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Estrela (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Marcus averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 713 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last eight appearances. I. Stoica averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 552 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last eight appearances.

Predicted Casa Pia XI (4-2-3-1): A. Gomes, Geraldes, D. Sousa, P. Rosas, J. Goulart, L. Ofori, Silvi, J. Rêgo, S. Pérez, M. El Boukammiri, H. Araújo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo (5.2 per match over five appearances) and Silvi (3.8 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Casa Pia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Casa Pia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 433 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last five appearances. Silvi averages 0.2 key passes per 90 over 548 minutes, with a key pass in one of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Primeira Liga
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Estrela 4 · draws 0 · Casa Pia 2 · 3.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Estrela 2W 1D 2L · Casa Pia 2W 1D 2L

Estrela v Casa Pia (Primeira Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 0.5
Goals
against 1.75 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.14 / 3.71
Corners
against 4.43 / 6.86 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.29 / 2.43
Shots on target
against 4.29 / 5.29 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.43 / 2.57
Cards
against 2.57 / 2.14 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameEstrela for / againstLineCasa Pia for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
2.5our book
0.5 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.14 for · 4.43 against n 7
9.5standard
3.71 for · 6.86 against n 7
Shots
13.43 for · 10.43 against n 7
19.5standard
9.71 for · 15.43 against n 7
Shots on target
4.29 for · 4.29 against n 7
8.5standard
2.43 for · 5.29 against n 7
Fouls committed
10.43 for · 11.71 against n 7
21.5standard
12 for · 12.57 against n 7
Cards shown
2.43 for · 2.57 against n 7
3.5standard
2.57 for · 2.14 against n 7
Estrela
Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Höög Jansson n 817
3.35/0
0.71/0
—
Joan Jordán n 825.5
3.14/2
0.41/0
—
Alisson n 89.8
2.32/0
3.53/0
—
B. Souza n 823.4
1.93/1
3.45/2
—
L. Antonetti n 889.1
1.87/4
1.17/2
—
Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Alisson n 89.8
3.52/1
1.21/0
B. Souza n 823.4
2.94/2
1.43/0
L. Antonetti n 889.1
2.77/5
0.95/1
I. Stoica n 869
2.37/5
14/2
S. van Hooijdonk n 834.6
2.33/1
0.31/0
Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Stoica n 869
0.73/1
0.32/0
B. Souza n 823.4
0.51/0
0.51/0
L. Antonetti n 889.1
0.54/0
0.11/0
A. Marcus n 889.1
0.53/1
0.11/0
Eddy Doue n 879.9
00/0
0.42/1
Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Scholze n 873
4.37/6
L. Mincarelli Davin n 851.1
2.95/3
B. Souza n 823.4
2.93/2
Joan Jordán n 825.5
2.64/1
Luan Patrick n 890
2.47/5
Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Léo Linck n 890
2.98/4
Casa Pia
Casa Pia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Abdu Dafe n 417.5
3.93/0
1.31/0
—
E. Maurin n 839.5
2.66/3
24/2
—
Rochinha n 842.5
2.46/2
2.96/3
—
S. Pérez n 848.3
1.94/3
1.95/3
—
Pedro Rosas n 860.4
1.74/3
0.42/0
—
Casa Pia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. El Boukammiri n 841.9
2.77/3
0.83/0
Abdu Dafe n 417.5
2.62/0
00/0
Cassiano n 842.8
2.15/2
1.34/1
Rochinha n 842.5
2.15/2
0.51/1
Henrique Araújo n 855.6
1.86/3
0.63/0
Casa Pia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Pauwels n 848.6
0.52/0
00/0
Cassiano n 842.8
0.31/0
00/0
M. El Boukammiri n 841.9
00/0
0.31/0
Silvi n 868.5
0.21/0
00/0
A. Jatta n 855.8
0.21/0
00/0
Casa Pia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
JP n 841.8
3.84/3
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo n 858.6
3.66/6
K. Prieto n 855.6
2.88/3
Kaly n 868
2.67/4
Silvi n 868.5
2.37/3
Casa Pia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ivan Mandić n 482.8
3.52/2
André Gomes n 882.4
2.97/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Estrela v Casa Pia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
EstrelaWDLLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Casa PiaDLWLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Estrela 4 · 0 draws · Casa Pia 2 · 3.17 goals/game
  • 2026-03-20 Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia
  • 2025-11-01 Casa Pia 3–5 Estrela
  • 2025-02-09 Casa Pia 1–0 Estrela
  • 2024-08-31 Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia
  • 2024-03-08 Estrela 3–1 Casa Pia
  • 2023-10-08 Casa Pia 0–1 Estrela
League standing · 2026/27
Estrela#10 pos10 pts8 pl-1 GD
Casa Pia#17 pos4 pts8 pl-14 GD
Goals per game
Estrela scored1.75
Casa Pia scored0.38
Estrela conceded1.88
Casa Pia conceded2.13

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Estrela v Casa Pia?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Estrela v Casa Pia is Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Casa Pia?
In their last 6 meetings, Estrela won 4, Casa Pia won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Estrela and Casa Pia?
Recent form — Estrela 2W 1D 2L; Casa Pia 2W 1D 2L.

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