Tondela v Estoril result

Full-time · Tondela 2–2 Estoril

Primeira Liga · · Estádio João Cardoso

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Tondela · Estoril · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Tondela 2–2 Estoril — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 1356 landed (95% range 64.9–69.8%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Tondela and Estoril drew 2–2 at Estádio João Cardoso in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 31 August. Tondela are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions. Estoril are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

The goals

Estoril led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Estoril: Yanis Begraoui (43’, assisted by André Lacximicant) and Rafik Guitane (90’, assisted by João Carvalho); Tondela: Tiago Manso (73’ pen) and Ivan Cavaleiro (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ivan Cavaleiro’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Tondela, from fewer shots (14 to 21), created the better chances, 2.79 xG to 2.11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

S. Guelho showed four yellow cards — against 4.9 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Tondela: J. Rodríguez (15’); Estoril: Kévin Boma (26’), Felix Bacher (31’) and Pedro Amaral (68’).

What it changes

Tondela move up from 18th to 17th (four league matches played).

Estoril move down from 11th to 13th (three league matches played).

Estoril have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Tiago Manso (Tondela) 8.1, Ivan Cavaleiro (Tondela) 6.5 and André Lacximicant (Estoril) 5.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Estoril, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (914 of 1356).

Next up

Estoril next host Moreirense on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Estoril: Estoril v Moreirense, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Tondela 2–2 Estoril · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela
  • Referee: S. Guelho
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Tondela 1 · draws 1 · Estoril 4 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Tondela 0W 0D 5L · Estoril 1W 2D 2L

Tondela 2–2 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 4
Corners
against 8.25 / 3.38 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 4 matches
2.75 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 5.75 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 4 matches
1.25 / 2.75
Cards
against 1 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 4 matches
4.86 yellows
Referee · S. Guelho
2.86 home / 2 away
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameTondela for / againstLineEstoril for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
2.25 for · 8.25 against n 4
9.5standard
4 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
7.75 for · 10.75 against n 4
19.5standard
8.63 for · 9.63 against n 8
Shots on target
2.75 for · 5.75 against n 4
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.5 for · 9.75 against n 4
21.5standard
15.75 for · 15.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1 against n 4
3.5standard
2.75 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: S. Guelho — 4.86 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 25.14 fouls over 7 matches (2.86 to the home side, 2 to the away side).

Tondela
Tondela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Miro n 847.4
3.87/3
2.14/4
—
Y. Rodriguez n 323.7
3.83/0
2.52/0
—
Hélder Tavares n 862
2.56/5
1.85/3
—
Pedro Maranhão n 367.3
1.82/2
2.23/2
—
B. Medina n 490
1.33/1
0.31/0
—
Tondela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Afonso Rodrigues n 823.9
3.34/2
00/0
Pedro Maranhão n 367.3
1.83/1
0.92/0
Xabi Huarte n 431.3
1.42/0
1.42/0
Yarlen n 743.4
1.23/1
0.61/1
Miro n 847.4
0.93/1
0.52/0
Tondela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Sithole n 872.9
00/0
0.21/0
Christian Marques n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Bernardo Fontes n 390
00/0
00/0
E. Maviram n 390
00/0
00/0
Tiago Manso n 390
00/0
00/0
Tondela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Xabi Huarte n 431.3
3.63/2
Tiago Manso n 390
2.73/3
B. Medina n 490
2.54/3
Christian Marques n 890
2.46/5
J. Rodríguez n 349.3
2.43/1
Estoril
Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Tiago Brito n 522
6.54/4
2.52/1
—
Vinicius Zanocelo n 870.9
2.46/4
2.18/3
—
Pedro Álvaro n 877.8
2.27/4
0.95/1
—
Alejandro Marqués n 820.4
2.23/1
1.73/0
—
Gonçalo Costa n 832.9
2.12/1
12/1
—
Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Israel Salazar n 812
3.83/1
0.91/0
Alejandro Marqués n 820.4
2.85/0
1.73/0
Jandro Orellana n 831.3
2.23/1
1.13/0
André Lacximicant n 851.9
1.75/3
0.93/1
Y. Begraoui n 871.8
1.35/2
1.14/2
Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Alejandro Marqués n 820.4
1.12/0
00/0
R. Guitane n 844.6
0.31/0
0.52/0
Jandro Orellana n 831.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
Y. Begraoui n 871.8
0.62/1
00/0
Tiago Parreira Parente n 361.3
0.51/0
00/0
Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Tiago Brito n 522
5.73/2
Tiago Parreira Parente n 361.3
3.43/1
Vinicius Zanocelo n 870.9
3.38/6
Wagner Pina n 879.6
2.58/6
Pizzi n 824.8
2.33/1
Estoril — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
K. Chamorro n 492
2.23/2
Joel Robles n 890
24/3

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TondelaEstoril
51%Possession49%
2.79Expected goals (xG)2.11
14Shots21
4Shots on target5
8Shots off target9
2Blocked shots7
9Shots inside the box13
3Corners4
9Offsides1
8Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves2
324Passes316
71%Pass accuracy67%

Tondela player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Bernardo Fontes9000000006.7
Bebeto9000100306.7
Christian Marques9000000206.3
B. Medina9000000207.3
E. Maviram9000102306.7
J. Rodríguez90000004Y6.7
S. Sithole8000000206.9
Tiago Manso7410211107.3
Yarlen7400000106.7
Pedro Maranhão5800111106.3
Miro5800100007
Y. Rodriguez sub3200310006.2
Ivan Cavaleiro sub3210114007.3
Xabi Huarte sub1600200006.2
M. Ouattara sub1600000006.9
Hélder Tavares sub1000000006.7

Estoril player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Robles9000000106.6
K. Boma90001000Y5.5
F. Bacher90000011Y5.9
Pedro Amaral90001010Y5.3
J. Holsgrove9000214107.3
João Carvalho9001313106.7
Y. Begraoui7410110007.2
Nodar Lominadze6700001006.9
André Lacximicant6701312107.7
Pedro Carvalho6000000106.6
Tiago Parreira Parente6000000106.7
Ferro sub3000000106.3
Ricard Sánchez sub3000000206.3
Patrick de Paula sub2300100106.3
Alejandro Marqués sub2300000006.2
R. Guitane sub1610212007.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Tondela v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TondelaLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
EstorilLDWDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Tondela 1 · 1 draw · Estoril 4 · 3 goals/game
  • 2022-02-12 Estoril 1–0 Tondela
  • 2021-12-21 Tondela 3–1 Estoril
  • 2021-09-13 Tondela 1–2 Estoril
  • 2018-10-21 Estoril 1–1 Tondela
  • 2018-01-30 Estoril 3–0 Tondela
  • 2017-08-19 Tondela 2–3 Estoril
League standing · 2025/26
Tondela#17 pos28 pts34 pl-28 GD
Estoril#10 pos39 pts34 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Tondela scored0.79
Estoril scored1.59
Tondela conceded1.62
Estoril conceded1.68

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Tondela v Estoril?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Tondela v Estoril was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Estoril?
In their last 6 meetings, Tondela won 1, Estoril won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Tondela and Estoril?
Recent form — Tondela 0W 0D 5L; Estoril 1W 2D 2L.

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