Almeria v Oviedo prediction

Segunda División ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Almeria · Oviedo · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Almeria v Oviedo, Segunda División on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Almeria host Oviedo in Segunda División on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Almeria or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Almeria have won their last five matches in all competitions. Almeria have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Oviedo have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Oviedo are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Almeria.

Form and the table

Eight of Almeria’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Almeria’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Almeria have six wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.25 points per game, scoring 2.13 and conceding 1.13. Almeria have scored 20 goals, the most (shared) of the 22 clubs (2026/27 so far). Almeria have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs.

Seven of Oviedo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in four of Oviedo’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Oviedo have two wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 2.14. Oviedo have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs (2026/27 so far). Oviedo have conceded nine goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 22 clubs.

Almeria (first) and Oviedo (ninth) are 10 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Almeria the stronger side, 126 rating points above Oviedo (Almeria 1764, Oviedo 1638, after at least 314 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 11 June 2025, finished Oviedo 1–1 Almeria.

Team news

Predicted Almeria XI (4-2-3-1): A. Fernández, F. Bonini, Á. Muñoz, M. Luna, Chumi, J. Muñoz, S. Džodić, Q. Junyent, B. Cipenga, S. Arribas, M. de la Fuente — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, B. Cipenga (5.9 per match over nine appearances, three goals and four assists) and Javi Muñoz (4.5 per match over seven appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Almeria’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Almeria (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), B. Cipenga averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 800 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Javi Muñoz averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 626 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Oviedo XI (4-2-3-1): A. Escandell, D. Calvo, C. Domínguez, S. Rodriguez, J. Cruz, D. Villahermosa, A. Reina, Y. Didi, P. Sáenz, M. Goti, A. Ișfan — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mikel Goti (4.6 per match over six appearances, one goal and one assist) and Pablo Sáenz (4.1 per match over nine appearances, two goals) have been Oviedo’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Oviedo (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mikel Goti averages 3.7 key passes per 90 over 393 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last six appearances. Pablo Sáenz averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 666 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Segunda División
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Almeria 1 · draws 2 · Oviedo 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Almeria 5W 0D 0L · Oviedo 3W 0D 2L

Almeria v Oviedo (Segunda División): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.13 / 1.38
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 6.25
Corners
against 5.5 / 4.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 3.25
Cards
against 3.5 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAlmeria for / againstLineOviedo for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
3.5 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
13.5 for · 13.13 against n 8
19.5standard
15.38 for · 13.25 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.13 for · 14.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 15.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 3.5 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 3 against n 8
Almeria
Almeria — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Álex Muñoz n 854.1
2.18/2
13/2
—
D. Chirino n 849.6
27/2
1.14/1
—
Mikel Vesga n 839.6
24/2
1.45/0
—
S. Džodić n 881.5
1.87/3
1.25/3
—
Miguel de la Fuente n 873.5
1.88/2
3.77/5
—
Almeria — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Baptistão n 829.1
3.54/3
1.21/1
Miguel de la Fuente n 873.5
2.97/6
1.25/3
Nico Melamed n 847.6
2.67/3
1.45/1
Adri Embarba n 862.9
2.16/4
0.74/0
Sergio Arribas n 873.3
1.86/5
0.84/1
Almeria — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Cipenga n 870.8
0.53/0
0.62/1
Miguel de la Fuente n 873.5
0.95/1
00/0
Léo Baptistão n 829.1
0.41/0
0.41/0
Javi Muñoz n 881.5
0.32/0
0.43/0
Nico Melamed n 847.6
0.52/0
0.21/0
Almeria — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Álex Sola n 820
3.94/2
Quim Junyent n 857.6
2.77/3
Álex Muñoz n 854.1
2.55/3
Javi Muñoz n 881.5
2.28/4
Adri Embarba n 862.9
25/5
Almeria — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Andrés Fernández n 890
35/5
Oviedo
Oviedo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
V. Mingo n 723.4
3.33/3
3.84/3
—
Aritz Aldasoro n 844.8
37/4
2.55/3
—
Chris Ramos n 842.1
2.95/2
0.82/1
—
Y. Didi n 866
2.46/4
00/0
—
Jacobo González n 871.6
25/3
1.45/3
—
Oviedo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
V. Mingo n 723.4
6.65/4
2.73/2
A. Ișfan n 649.5
3.36/2
1.23/1
Chris Ramos n 842.1
2.96/4
1.14/0
Pablo Sáenz n 874.5
2.67/6
0.83/2
Jacobo González n 871.6
2.57/5
0.85/0
Oviedo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Enzo Perez n 827.3
0.41/0
0.82/0
Chris Ramos n 842.1
0.52/0
00/0
V. Mingo n 723.4
00/0
0.51/0
Carlos Domínguez n 890
0.42/1
00/0
Mikel Goti n 859
0.21/0
0.21/0
Oviedo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Aritz Aldasoro n 844.8
4.35/5
Dani Villahermosa n 871.9
3.38/6
Y. Didi n 866
3.18/4
Aisar Ahmed n 859.5
2.88/3
José Luis Morales n 827.3
2.54/2
Oviedo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Aarón Escandell n 890
2.66/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Almeria v Oviedo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AlmeriaWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
OviedoWLWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Almeria 1 · 2 draws · Oviedo 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2025-06-11 Oviedo 1–1 Almeria
  • 2025-06-07 Almeria 1–2 Oviedo
  • 2025-02-01 Almeria 1–1 Oviedo
  • 2024-10-13 Oviedo 3–2 Almeria
  • 2022-01-29 Oviedo 2–0 Almeria
  • 2021-08-20 Almeria 2–1 Oviedo
League standing · 2026/27
Almeria#1 pos24 pts10 pl+13 GD
Oviedo#9 pos14 pts9 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Almeria scored2
Oviedo scored1.22
Almeria conceded0.7
Oviedo conceded1

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Almeria v Oviedo?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Almeria v Oviedo is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Oviedo?
In their last 6 meetings, Almeria won 1, Oviedo won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Almeria and Oviedo?
Recent form — Almeria 5W 0D 0L; Oviedo 3W 0D 2L.

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