Bahia v Flamengo prediction
Team pages: Bahia · Flamengo · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Bahia vs Flamengo, Serie A – Brazil on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 22:30 BST.
The match
Bahia host Flamengo in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 22:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Flamengo are unbeaten in their last nine matches. Flamengo have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked. Flamengo have scored 58 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).
Form and the table
Seven of Bahia’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Bahia’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Bahia have five wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 7 home matches — 2.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 0.71. Bahia have scored 44 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Bahia have conceded 36 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 20 clubs.
Seven of Flamengo’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Flamengo’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Flamengo have three wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 7 away matches — 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.00. Flamengo have conceded 25 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).
Bahia (fifth) and Flamengo (first) are 15 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Flamengo the stronger side, 182 rating points above Bahia (Flamengo 1857, Bahia 1675, after at least 334 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Flamengo 2–0 Bahia.
Team news
Predicted Bahia XI (4-3-3): Ronaldo, D. Duarte, L. Juba, R. Gómez, S. Mingo, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, J. Lucas, A. Véliz, E. Pulga, C. Olivera — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Luciano Juba (4.1 per match over 30 appearances, 10 goals and one assist) and Nicolás Acevedo (3.5 per match over 30 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Bahia’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Bahia (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Luciano Juba averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 2553 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nicolás Acevedo averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 2555 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Flamengo XI (4-2-3-1): A. Rossi, L. Ortiz, L. Pereira, G. Varela, A. Lucas, S. Lino, L. Paquetá, J. Carrascal, Jorginho, E. Pulgar, Pedro — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Samuel Lino (4.3 per match over 40 appearances, 10 goals and eight assists) and Pedro (4.2 per match over 40 appearances, 19 goals and nine assists) have been Flamengo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Flamengo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Samuel Lino averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 2752 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Pedro averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 2882 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Arena Fonte Nova
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Bahia 1 · draws 0 · Flamengo 5 · 1.33 goals/game
- Recent form: Bahia 3W 0D 2L · Flamengo 3W 2D 0L
TACTIX runs Bahia v Flamengo (Serie A – Brazil) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 14 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bahia for / against | Line | Flamengo for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.63 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.25 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 7.13 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15.5 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 15.13 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.88 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 5.25 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.75 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.5 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.75 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5 |
Bahia
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 19.5 | 4 | 1.7 | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo n 8 | 82.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | — |
| Çağatay Yılmaz n 7 | 30.4 | 2.1 | 4.6 | — |
| Román Gómez n 8 | 68.9 | 2 | 1.3 | — |
| Jean Lucas n 8 | 57 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruan Pablo n 8 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Alejo Véliz n 8 | 87.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Mateo Sanabria n 8 | 27.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Erick Pulga n 8 | 81.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Rodrigo Nestor n 8 | 79.9 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Lucas n 8 | 57 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 19.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Alejo Véliz n 8 | 87.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Erick Pulga n 8 | 81.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Luciano Juba n 8 | 87.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Erick n 8 | 55.3 | 2.9 |
| Ruan Pablo n 8 | 11.8 | 2.9 |
| Everton Ribeiro n 8 | 29.5 | 2.7 |
| Nicolás Acevedo n 8 | 82.8 | 2.4 |
| Marcos Victor n 8 | 52.6 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo n 8 | 90.9 | 3.7 |
Flamengo
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sandro n 8 | 58.1 | 2.9 | 1 | — |
| Bruno Henrique n 8 | 34 | 2.6 | 3.3 | — |
| Everton n 8 | 35 | 2.3 | 1.9 | — |
| N. de la Cruz n 8 | 25 | 2.3 | 3.6 | — |
| E. Pulgar n 8 | 73.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton n 8 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Pedro n 8 | 57.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| N. de la Cruz n 8 | 25 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Samuel Lino n 8 | 63.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Lucas Paquetá n 8 | 64.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Valencia n 8 | 43.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Jorge Carrascal n 8 | 63.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| G. de Arrascaeta n 8 | 61.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Pedro n 8 | 57.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Lucas Paquetá n 8 | 64.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Luiz Araujo n 8 | 38.4 | 3.8 |
| Lucas Paquetá n 8 | 64.8 | 3 |
| Samuel Lino n 8 | 63.3 | 2.8 |
| Anthony Valencia n 8 | 43.6 | 2.6 |
| E. Pulgar n 8 | 73.8 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Rossi n 8 | 90.6 | 2.4 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Bahia v Flamengo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-19 Flamengo 2–0 Bahia
- 2025-10-05 Bahia 1–0 Flamengo
- 2025-05-11 Flamengo 1–0 Bahia
- 2024-10-05 Bahia 0–2 Flamengo
- 2024-09-13 Flamengo 1–0 Bahia
- 2024-08-29 Bahia 0–1 Flamengo
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bahia v Flamengo is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
- In their last 6 meetings, Bahia won 1, Flamengo won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1.33 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bahia and Flamengo?
- Recent form — Bahia 3W 0D 2L; Flamengo 3W 2D 0L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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