AC Milan v Fiorentina result
Team pages: AC Milan · Fiorentina · Head-to-head
AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina — AC Milan won this Serie A match.
What xG said
xG said AC Milan: 2.02 to 0.97 in expected goals, from 14 shots to 5, ahead on xG from the 75th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).
The result
AC Milan beat Fiorentina 2–1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A on Sunday 19 October. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.
The goals
It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Fiorentina: Robin Gosens (55’); AC Milan: Rafael Leão (63’, assisted by Strahinja Pavlović; 86’ pen).
Discipline
Livio Marinelli, Italy showed six yellow cards — against 4.5 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — AC Milan: Zachary Athekame (50’), Youssouf Fofana (60’) and F. Tomori (74’); Fiorentina: H. Nicolussi (54’), F. Parisi (85’) and Luca Ranieri (88’).
What it changes
AC Milan move up from third to first (seven league matches played).
Fiorentina move down from 17th to 18th (seven league matches played).
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Rafael Leão (AC Milan) 10.9, Luka Modrić (AC Milan) 6.2 and Robin Gosens (Fiorentina) 4.6 led the match.
Next up
AC Milan next travel to Bournemouth on 22 October 2026.
Fiorentina next travel to Inter on 25 October 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for AC Milan: Bournemouth v AC Milan, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Fiorentina: Inter v Fiorentina, Sunday 25 October — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina · Serie A
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milan
- Referee: Livio Marinelli, Italy
- Head-to-head (last 6): AC Milan 3 · draws 1 · Fiorentina 2 · 2.83 goals/game
- Recent form: AC Milan 4W 1D 0L · Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L
AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across every major market, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | AC Milan for / against | Line | Fiorentina for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.75 for · 0.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.25 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.75 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 16.5 for · 8.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.5 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.38 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.25 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14.13 for · 17.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Livio Marinelli, Italy.
AC Milan
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Athekame n 8 | 44.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | H. Nicolussi |
| A. Rabiot n 8 | 69.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | — |
| K. De Winter n 8 | 59.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | — |
| Rafael Leão n 8 | 37 | 1.8 | 3 | — |
| R. Loftus-Cheek n 8 | 50.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Giménez n 8 | 58.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| C. Nkunku n 8 | 37.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Rafael Leão n 8 | 37 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Y. Fofana n 8 | 74.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| R. Loftus-Cheek n 8 | 50.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pulišić n 8 | 40.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| S. Chukwueze n 8 | 23.9 | 0 | 1.4 |
| A. Saelemaekers n 8 | 64.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| C. Nkunku n 8 | 37.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Rafael Leão n 8 | 37 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Bartesaghi n 8 | 44.8 | 3 |
| S. Chukwueze n 8 | 23.9 | 2.8 |
| Zachary Athekame n 8 | 44.4 | 2.5 |
| A. Rabiot n 8 | 69.3 | 2.3 |
| Álex Jiménez n 8 | 46.4 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| P. Terracciano n 8 | 83 | 2 |
| M. Maignan n 8 | 85.8 | 1.7 |
Fiorentina
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Pongračić n 8 | 85.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | — |
| H. Nicolussi n 8 | 80.6 | 2.4 | 2 | Zachary Athekame |
| T. Lamptey n 8 | 58.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | — |
| N. Fortini n 3 | 31.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| Pablo Marí n 8 | 80.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kean n 8 | 78.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| R. Piccoli n 8 | 53.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| C. Ndour n 8 | 40.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Rolando Mandragora n 8 | 69 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Dodô n 8 | 86.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Guðmundsson n 8 | 64.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| C. Ndour n 8 | 40.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| M. Kean n 8 | 78.5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| R. Piccoli n 8 | 53.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| R. Gosens n 8 | 79 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| N. Fortini n 3 | 31.7 | 6.6 |
| J. Fazzini n 8 | 49.1 | 3.4 |
| T. Lamptey n 8 | 58.1 | 2.9 |
| Rolando Mandragora n 8 | 69 | 2.6 |
| F. Parisi n 8 | 40.3 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| David de Gea n 8 | 90.1 | 3.5 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Match statistics & details
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Possession | 44% |
| 1.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 7 | Shots off target | 3 |
| 3 | Blocked shots | 1 |
| 10 | Shots inside the box | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 485 | Passes | 362 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 85% |
AC Milan player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Maignan | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| F. Tomori | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Y | 7 |
| M. Gabbia | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| S. Pavlović | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Y. Fofana | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Y | 6.6 |
| L. Modrić | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 7.5 |
| S. Ricci | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| D. Bartesaghi | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| A. Saelemaekers | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Rafael Leão | 89 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Zachary Athekame | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Y | 6.3 |
| S. Giménez sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
| K. De Winter sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| M. Valletta sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
Fiorentina player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David de Gea | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| M. Pongračić | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Pablo Marí | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.5 |
| L. Ranieri | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.6 |
| Dodô | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| N. Fagioli | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Rolando Mandragora | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| H. Nicolussi | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6 |
| M. Kean | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| J. Fazzini | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| R. Gosens | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| F. Parisi sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6 |
| A. Guðmundsson sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| R. Piccoli sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| S. Sohm sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| E. Džeko sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind AC Milan v Fiorentina — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-04-05 AC Milan 2–2 Fiorentina
- 2024-10-06 Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan
- 2024-03-30 Fiorentina 1–2 AC Milan
- 2023-11-25 AC Milan 1–0 Fiorentina
- 2023-03-04 Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan
- 2022-11-13 AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina
Shot map and expected goals
AC Milan 2.02 xG from 14 shots, Fiorentina 0.97 from 5. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.
| Team | Shots | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 14 | 2 | 2.02 |
| Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 0.97 |
Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
- In their last 6 meetings, AC Milan won 3, Fiorentina won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of AC Milan and Fiorentina?
- Recent form — AC Milan 4W 1D 0L; Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.